South Africa’s agricultural growth outlook remains positive

by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 13, 2025 | Agricultural Production

At the start of this year, South Africa’s Department of Agriculture, along with organised agriculture, agribusinesses, and research groups in agriculture, established the Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee of South Africa (ACAC), housed under the Department.

The ACAC meets quarterly to assess statistical matters and methodology for the collection of agricultural statistics.

The ACAC also provides a platform for organised agricultural stakeholders and industry experts to share their views on observing the evolving agricultural landscape in South Africa.

I am part of the ACAC, and today, October 13, we had a meeting for the third quarter of 2025. In the section about the agricultural conditions in the country, the ACAC viewed South Africa’s agricultural conditions as uneven, but leaning more towards the favourable growth path for most industries.

I want to lift a few passages from ACAC’s official statement, which succinctly summarise the current state of our sector.

The ACAC stated that:

“In field crops, the output is up from the 2023-24 season, boosted by the favourable rainfall and vast planting area. For example, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 19.94 million tonnes, a 28% year-on-year increase. This encompasses maize, soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum, dry beans and groundnuts. As a result of this ample harvest, the commodity prices are generally under pressure. The season was roughly a month and a half behind its typical schedule. As a result, some of the produce that would ordinarily be delivered in the second quarter was delivered in the third quarter, which may boost the gross value added figures specifically for that quarter.

 

In terms of sugar cane production, conditions remain favourable, and the 2024-25 crop is higher than the previous season due to the favourable rains and decent planting. Prices are, however, under a bit of pressure given that world prices are substantially lower than a year ago.

 

In the case of winter crops, the season has not been as favourable. The start of the season presented some snail infestation in canola-producing regions of the Western Cape, a significant winter crop-producing province of South Africa. Moreover, the drier weather conditions at the end of August and the beginning of September also weighed on the crop. Still, the production estimates remain decent, with South Africa’s winter crop estimated at 2.77 million tonnes, up 4% from the 2024-25 season. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. Winter crop prices have held up better than summer crop prices.”

The ACAC further noted that:

“Regarding fruits, the 2024-25 season has been a period of recovery. The citrus volumes, deciduous fruits, table grapes, and other fruits are all in better conditions, and across the board, harvests, along with export volumes, are well up from last year. The ACAC also sees better volumes and quality in wine production, with substantial upward revisions in the latest wine grape crop estimates. The primary concern for horticulture and wine producers remains trade policy, particularly the friction in the U.S. market and the slow pace of export diversification. At the production level, the conditions are favourable and should support third-quarter growth.

 

The production conditions for vegetables are also fair, benefiting from favourable rainfall. Volumes are up year on year for most major vegetables, but given that the bulk of produce is consumed locally, additional volumes do bring price pressure. Consequently, there are concerns about the profitability of some industries, such as potatoes, where prices have declined rapidly due to the large harvest.”

On the downside, the ACA said that:

“In livestock, the beef farmers and dairy producers continue to face a challenging environment due to foot-and-mouth disease. The disease and the slow process of vaccination will weigh on the profitability of farming businesses. Widespread impact from FMD has disrupted production, with slaughter volumes and carcass weights down as a result. But the one positive aspect is the better feed prices the ACAC continues to observe, following the large soybean and maize harvest.

 

Higher beef prices have also provided some support to pork and poultry prices, as a result of consumer substitution. These industries have shorter production cycles and can expand production to make up for beef supply disruptions. The pork and poultry industries also benefit from better feed costs, which is a significant cost driver for them, while remaining concerned about animal diseases in general.”

In a nutshell, we are experiencing an uneven recovery in South Africa’s agriculture this year.

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Agriculture Remains a Key Component of Rural Development In South Africa

by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 8, 2025 | Agricultural Production

The writer, Jabulani Sikhakhane, has a fascinating column in the Business Day (October 8, 2025) about the need to rethink rural development in the former homelands of South Africa, extending the focus beyond agriculture. Broadly, I agree with his sentiment and much of the literature he cites in his column, which states that communities need more than just agriculture.

However, I want to emphasise that since the dawn of democracy, South Africa has consistently failed to stimulate agricultural growth in the former homelands of this country. While South Africa’s agricultural economy has more than doubled since 1994, this expansion has mainly been in the traditionally commercial regions.

The former homelands remain in the periphery of agricultural growth, although some have access to fertile lands. Poor land governance and inadequate infrastructure are among the key constraints to agricultural development. Therefore, it is unsurprising that households may lose hope in agriculture and seek to focus on other areas.

They have, for over three decades, been stuck in subsistence farming, with no coherent government programme to assist. This is an issue we detailed at length in my book, A Country of Two Agricultures, with proposed solutions that policymakers could consider to stimulate growth and job creation in rural South Africa.

Therefore, I would still argue that South Africa’s rural development should have agriculture as a central focus, but must adopt a different approach to farming that prioritises commercialisation to improve the economic conditions of the communities and bring much-needed jobs.

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Lower Maize Prices in SA Benefit Consumers and the Livestock Industry

by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 7, 2025 | Agricultural Production

We have currently entered a period of lower maize prices in South Africa. This is a relatively favourable period for South African households, livestock farmers, and poultry producers, who are the major consumers of maize.

Looking at South Africa’s white maize spot prices today, they are down by over 35% from a year ago, trading at R3,595 per tonne.

In the case of yellow maize, the pot price is down by over 20% from a year ago, trading around R3,450 per tonne.

These notable declines in maize prices illustrate the improved supplies in the domestic market. After all, we have a sizable harvest in the 2024-25 season. The Crop Estimate Committee forecast South Africa’s maize harvest at 16.12 million tonnes, which is 26% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season.

Importantly, the expected maize crop is well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.

The notable decline in domestic maize prices illustrates the ample harvest. Moreover, the relatively slow pace of export activity has contributed to the decline in maize prices.

For the 2025-26 marketing year (which corresponds with he 2024-25 production season), South Africa’s maize exports are forecast at 2.24 million tonnes. This season ends in April 2026. Ideally, we should have seen robust export activity by now. But the exports have been slow.

Since the start of the year in May 2025 through to the end of September 2025, South Africa had exported about 650,897 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.24 million tonnes.

We are seeing softer demand in the African region, as some countries also have decent supplies. However, we will likely see more robust export activity later in the year and in early 2026, when some countries in the region have depleted their supplies. It is such a time when, perhaps, maize prices could nudge up a bit. But for now, we remain in a period of lower maize prices.

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South Africa is Set to Have a Record Canola Harvest in the 2025-26 Season

by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 5, 2025 | Agricultural Production

At the end of August, I pondered the possibility of a canola boom in South Africa for the 2025-26 season. I based my view on the area planting and weather prospects, which were encouraging compared to the 2024-25 season.

However, as many people in South Africa’s canola-growing province, the Western Cape, would agree, the start of the 2025-26 season presented a challenge for some regions of the province. We have seen reports of snail infestations in some areas, forcing farmers to replant, a process that increases production costs.

At the end of September 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee released its second production forecast for canola, indicating a possible harvest of 311,640 tonnes, a 3% decrease from the August 2025 estimate. Notably, this remains 7% higher than the previous season. The annual gains are primarily due to the expansion in area plantings.

I must say, this is not far off from our initial estimate of a 311,661-tonne harvest of canola, which was an 8% increase from the 2024-25 season. Here, we applied a five-year average yield of 1.89 tonnes per hectare to the area of 164,900 hectares, which provided a harvest estimate of 311,661 tonnes.

Still, the expected crop of 311,640 tonnes is a fresh record, reinforcing South Africa’s position as a relatively new exporter of canola products. South Africa is now a net exporter of canola, having recently exported to countries such as Germany and Belgium.

Canola is a relatively new crop in South Africa, but it remains a success story. Since South African farmers began planting the crop commercially on 17,000 hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 164,900 hectares by the 2025-26 season.

Over the years, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings has been a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake.

There has been a shift from traditional winter wheat and barley growing areas to canola due to firm demand and price competitiveness. Canola is a winter crop, primarily planted in the Western Cape, a region with winter rainfall in South Africa.

Therefore, while the start of the season has been costly for farmers, and the harvest estimate has been lowered from the initial, bigger harvest, South Africa could still have a record harvest of 311,640 tonnes of canola. This is arguably still a canola boom in terms of a harvest, but it’s a whole different discussion in terms of profitability for farmers.

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South Africa’s Grain Abundance and Another Promising Season Ahead

by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 30, 2025 | Agricultural Production

On September 30, we received the eighth production estimate for South Africa’s 2024-25 season. There are two more estimates to follow for the season, but they are unlikely to change the current picture of abundance.

The Crop Estimates Committee lifted South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimate by 2% from the August 2025 estimate to an expected 19.94 million tonnes (a 28% year-on-year increase).

This estimate comprises maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts (peanuts), sorghum, and dry beans. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings. The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest.

This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.

If I were to highlight one crop to underscore my point about food inflation, it would be maize. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is now forecast at 16.12 million tonnes, which is 26% higher than the 2023-24 season’s crop.

Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.

In essence, South Africa has an ample supply of summer grains and oilseeds, and we will see the benefits of the harvest in the softening of commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.

In a few weeks, the focus will shift to the 2025-26 season, which also promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains.

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A Welcome Start to the Summer Rains Ahead of the Planting Time in South Africa

by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 29, 2025 | Agricultural Production

We are at the Kwa-Shukela (South African Sugar Association Headquarters) in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, today, engaging with various agribusinesses. One thing noticeable on our way down here is the excellent rainfall in different regions of Gauteng and through to KwaZulu-Natal. I am highlighting the rains because we will soon begin with the 2025-26 production season for field crops and horticulture. The early rains help improve soil moisture, ahead of the start of the summer crop season in mid-October 2025.

Importantly, we have observed general optimism about the 2025-26 season amongst farmers. The weather outlook is positive, with a likelihood of more La Niña-induced summer rains. Tractor sales have also remained encouraging, indicating that farmers are preparing for a busy season ahead. The sentiment, as illustrated in the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index, has also been relatively positive.

So, all else being equal, we are looking to have another great season. The primary worry, of course, remains the animal diseases which continue to put pressure on our livestock industry.

As I am typing this from the Headquarters of the South African Sugar Association, I must note that the industry has had a reasonably good year in terms of production. The South African sugar production for the 2024-25 season is forecast to increase by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes, driven by favourable weather conditions and sufficient water availability for irrigation. Given the expected better weather conditions in the 2025-26 season, one can anticipate a better harvest for the sugar industry in the next season as well.

And yes, the picture ahead has nothing to do with this post. I took it inside the building at Kwa-Shukela. I liked all these SADC flags, and SA leading the way. We must continue to lead the region.

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