We are beginning to see the benefits of the recent rains through improvements in soil moisture across the summer crop-growing regions of South Africa.
The rains from the last week of October to the first week of this month, although patchy, have brought improvement to the North West, Gauteng, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, southern Mpumalanga, and the northern regions of the Eastern Cape. These are generally agricultural regions, and the improvement in soil moisture will support crop germination in the early-planted regions, as well as in the areas that are yet to be tilled.
The dryness in parts of the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo is not a significant worry. We remain convinced that the country will receive favourable rainfall through the summer season. While we generally highlight summer grains and oilseeds in some of our comments, the rains are beneficial to all agricultural activity.
We highlight the summer grains and oilseeds, as they are currently at the planting stage. South African farmers intend to plan 4.5 million hectares of land for the 2025-26 production season, a 1% increase from the previous season.
Suppose the weather conditions remain favourable, as we are experiencing during the La Niña phenomenon. In that case, we can expect another decent performance of South Africa’s farming economy in 2026, with continued moderation of food prices.
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It is still too early to be sure about what South Africa’s 2025-26 maize crop could be. But what we know is that farmers intend to lift the area they plant by 1% to 4.5 million hectares. They are upbeat and have been buying tractors. We have been witnessing strong tractor sales, which suggests that they are optimistic about the 2025-26 season.
Still, we will need to closely monitor the planting activity in the coming weeks to determine if the planned planting materializes. However, considering the historical perspective, it typically does. In fact, farmers have begun tilling the land in various regions of the country.
Importantly, the rainfall prospects are positive, with a forecast La Niña through to February 2026. This corresponds with the planting and crop growing timeframe. Thus, underscoring the point that we are heading to another year of possibly ample maize crop harvest.
As we close the season, we expect a maize crop harvest of approximately 16.4 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season, which is significantly above South Africa’s maize needs of 12.0 million tonnes, resulting in a considerable surplus for export markets.
I am narrating this brief view because the update from the International Grains Council about South Africa’s 2025-26 maize crop caught my attention. They foresee a slightly lower harvest of 16.0 million tonnes, compared to the 16.4 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season.
Given the possible increase in the area plantings in the 2025-26 season, and the favourable weather outlook, I am inclined to believe that the International Grains Council’s estimate is much more conservative. I think we will likely see another year of a larger crop, and perhaps even a bigger one than the 16.4 million tonnes of the 2024-25 season.
The International Grains Council reviews its figures monthly, which means they may likely lift the estimate as more information about the 2025-26 season becomes available and the planting season progresses.
Indeed, both my comments and those of the International Grains Council are generally based on early impressions; it is still early days. But we are typically optimistic that South Africa will likely have another better maize harvest season in 2025-26. What the International Grains Council published is likely on the lower end of what is possible. I remain of the view that we may as well see a bigger harvest.
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At the beginning of October 2025, I spent some time on the road, which allowed me to assess early planting activity for the 2025-26 summer crop season. I was encouraged by what I saw.
Indeed, in the eastern regions of the country, farmers were already busy tilling the land to take advantage of the early summer rains. I observed activity in some areas of Gauteng, the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Eastern Cape. These are mainly yellow maize and soybean growing regions, crops that are key to the livestock industry.
Given that the 2024-25 season was roughly a month and a half late, there was concern that the upcoming season might also be slightly behind schedule. But that is not what we are observing on the ground. The fieldwork currently underway suggests the season is starting on schedule, allowing the crop to mature early before any potential frost later in the season.
Importantly, the most recent update from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) is now broadly aligned with other international weather forecasters, who say the 2025-26 summer season may be a La Niña season. This would be beneficial for crop production and all other agricultural activities.
On September 30, the SAWS stated that the latest forecasts:
“indicate that we are moving towards at least a weak La Niña event during the coming summer season. As the period of uncertainty for ENSO during winter and early spring draws to an end, the predictions become more accurate. There are still some predictions that remain neutral. However, a La Niña State is more likely and gaining confidence as we near the summer seasons”.
The La Niña-induced rains may persist through to February 2026, a key period for summer grains and oilseeds. If the 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed production season continues with minimal interruptions, as we expect, the crop could pollinate around February 2026.
The crop requires increased moisture during the flowering or pollination stages. This coincides with the rainy period within the above forecasts, which supports the crop, and underscores our optimism about the upcoming season.
While my early assessment of plantings is based mainly on fieldwork in the eastern regions of South Africa, I note that the western areas are likely only to see the start of planting from mid-November onwards. This would still be an optimal period for crops to receive rainfall that supports their growing conditions.
While I will continue to monitor planting activity and crop conditions in the months ahead, another area that will require continuous focus is biosecurity. SA continues to face challenges related to foot-and-mouth disease, resulting in financial losses in some feedlots and livestock farms.
The work of addressing this challenge and reviving vaccine manufacturing must continue to ensure the sector is on a positive footing going into 2026. Notably, the rainy summer may present other disease challenges for livestock, but the primary focus remains on foot-and-mouth disease.
Overall, my optimistic expectations for the 2025-26 summer season appear to be gaining early support, as fieldwork has started on time in the eastern regions of South Africa.
Whether farmers plant the typical area for summer grains and oilseeds or not is something we will watch closely in the coming months. We know from the Crop Estimates Committee’s data that they intend to plant 4.5 million hectares, up 1% from the 2024-25 season.
While I remain upbeat about the 2025-26 season, I am fully aware that a crop cycle is long, and uncertainty about the intensity and timing of rainfall throughout the cycle is a critical factor in achieving yields.
This is an updated version of the column that appeared in the Business Day on October 15, 2025.
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South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production season was excellent. In its 9th production estimate, released on October 28, 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee raised South Africa’s 2024-25 production by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes.
This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The upward revision was mainly on maize, while other production estimates remained unchanged from the September figure.
The current estimate for the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseed season is up 30% from the previous season. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest. This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.
A closer look at the data reveals that South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is now at 16.32 million tonnes, 27% higher than the 2023-24 season’s crop. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, indicating a surplus and continued net maize exports.
Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.75 million tonnes, up 49% year over year. Sunflower seeds are up 12% from the last season and are estimated at 708,300 tonnes. The groundnut harvest is estimated at 61,389 tonnes (up 18% y/y), sorghum production is forecast at 144,665 tonnes (up 48% y/y), and the dry beans harvest is at 90,556 tonnes (up 79%).
A season ahead
The new 2025-26 production season is just starting and is shaping up to be excellent. The farmers intend to plant 4,49 million hectares, up by 1% from the 2024-25 season we are ending.
Concluding view
Overall, South Africa has an ample supply of summer grains and oilseeds, and we will see the benefits of the harvest in softer commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.
The focus is now shifting to the 2025-26 season, which also promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains. The farmers also intend to increase area plantings for the new year slightly, and planting activity has started positively in the eastern and central regions of the country.
Against this promising outlook, we believe South Africa’s food price inflation may continue to moderate into 2026, though there is potential upside risk from a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.
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Some showers in the next few days across much of South Africa would help to ensure that the 2025-26 plantings in the western regions of the country begin on time.
In the western regions of the country, which are mainly white maize and sunflower seed areas, plantings begin in mid-November. Thus, we think that if we get nice showers in the coming weeks, these regions will be able to start planting. So far, these regions have received little rain, and soil moisture remains low.
Still, we are in a La Niña rainfall season, so we aren’t as worried about moisture levels this summer. We also had late La Niña rains, starting a month and a half behind schedule, yet still ended up with an excellent crop. That is what actually happened in the 2024-25 season, and yet, we ended up with an ample harvest of 19.94 million tonnes (a 28% year-on-year increase). There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
For the eastern regions of the country, however, the picture is more positive. These regions have received favourable rainfall, and soil moisture is supportive of planting activity.
Typically, maize and soybean plantings start around mid-October in the eastern regions of the country, and we have witnessed an increase in fieldwork over the past couple of weeks while driving through those areas.
Therefore, when one sees a soil moisture map like this, there is no need for panic; these are still early days, and the weather outlook for the season remains positive.
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It is a busy time in South Africa’s agriculture. In the northern regions, the farmers are tilling the land for the 2025-26 season. In horticulture, some fruit harvests will begin soon. In winter crops, South Africa’s 2025-26 winter wheat early harvest seems to have started in some regions.
I am looking at the producer deliveries data for the 2025-26 marketing year, and we are seeing that farmers have begun delivering the new season crop to commercial silos. This crop was planted from the start of May.
In the first three weeks of this new marketing year, which started this October 2025, farmers have delivered about 45,420 tonnes of wheat to commercial silos. These are still early days, and the harvest will gain momentum in the coming months.
We have a generally better season, although not all regions are joyous about it. South Africa’s 2025-26 winter wheat harvest is forecast at 2.03 million tonnes, up 5% from last year. The annual improvement is boosted by the expected better harvest in the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo.
The Western Cape, which accounts for over half of South Africa’s winter wheat production, is set to experience a mild decline in the harvest this year compared to the 2024-25 season due to unfavourable weather conditions in some parts of the province.
We will know more about the quality and yields as the harvest gains momentum in the coming months. Regarding the 2025-26 summer crop, I will likely comment on the farmers’ planting intentions data during the week.
But we are generally in a busy time in our sector. Fortunately for me, I farm on spreadsheets and MS Word.
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At the start of this year, South Africa’s Department of Agriculture, along with organised agriculture, agribusinesses, and research groups in agriculture, established the Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee of South Africa (ACAC), housed under the Department.
The ACAC meets quarterly to assess statistical matters and methodology for the collection of agricultural statistics.
The ACAC also provides a platform for organised agricultural stakeholders and industry experts to share their views on observing the evolving agricultural landscape in South Africa.
I am part of the ACAC, and today, October 13, we had a meeting for the third quarter of 2025. In the section about the agricultural conditions in the country, the ACAC viewed South Africa’s agricultural conditions as uneven, but leaning more towards the favourable growth path for most industries.
I want to lift a few passages from ACAC’s official statement, which succinctly summarise the current state of our sector.
The ACAC stated that:
“In field crops, the output is up from the 2023-24 season, boosted by the favourable rainfall and vast planting area. For example, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 19.94 million tonnes, a 28% year-on-year increase. This encompasses maize, soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum, dry beans and groundnuts. As a result of this ample harvest, the commodity prices are generally under pressure. The season was roughly a month and a half behind its typical schedule. As a result, some of the produce that would ordinarily be delivered in the second quarter was delivered in the third quarter, which may boost the gross value added figures specifically for that quarter.
In terms of sugar cane production, conditions remain favourable, and the 2024-25 crop is higher than the previous season due to the favourable rains and decent planting. Prices are, however, under a bit of pressure given that world prices are substantially lower than a year ago.
In the case of winter crops, the season has not been as favourable. The start of the season presented some snail infestation in canola-producing regions of the Western Cape, a significant winter crop-producing province of South Africa. Moreover, the drier weather conditions at the end of August and the beginning of September also weighed on the crop. Still, the production estimates remain decent, with South Africa’s winter crop estimated at 2.77 million tonnes, up 4% from the 2024-25 season. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. Winter crop prices have held up better than summer crop prices.”
The ACAC further noted that:
“Regarding fruits, the 2024-25 season has been a period of recovery. The citrus volumes, deciduous fruits, table grapes, and other fruits are all in better conditions, and across the board, harvests, along with export volumes, are well up from last year. The ACAC also sees better volumes and quality in wine production, with substantial upward revisions in the latest wine grape crop estimates. The primary concern for horticulture and wine producers remains trade policy, particularly the friction in the U.S. market and the slow pace of export diversification. At the production level, the conditions are favourable and should support third-quarter growth.
The production conditions for vegetables are also fair, benefiting from favourable rainfall. Volumes are up year on year for most major vegetables, but given that the bulk of produce is consumed locally, additional volumes do bring price pressure. Consequently, there are concerns about the profitability of some industries, such as potatoes, where prices have declined rapidly due to the large harvest.”
On the downside, the ACA said that:
“In livestock, the beef farmers and dairy producers continue to face a challenging environment due to foot-and-mouth disease. The disease and the slow process of vaccination will weigh on the profitability of farming businesses. Widespread impact from FMD has disrupted production, with slaughter volumes and carcass weights down as a result. But the one positive aspect is the better feed prices the ACAC continues to observe, following the large soybean and maize harvest.
Higher beef prices have also provided some support to pork and poultry prices, as a result of consumer substitution. These industries have shorter production cycles and can expand production to make up for beef supply disruptions. The pork and poultry industries also benefit from better feed costs, which is a significant cost driver for them, while remaining concerned about animal diseases in general.”
In a nutshell, we are experiencing an uneven recovery in South Africa’s agriculture this year.
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He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
