One of the measures that some often use to evaluate the food security condition of each country relative to the world is The Economist’s Global Food Security Index. This latest Index ranks South Africa at 59 out of 113 countries, an improvement from the 70th position in 2021. This places South Africa as the most food secure in the African continent.
South Africa’s consumer food price inflation accelerated further to 12,3% y/y in September 2022 from 11,5% y/y in the previous month. The products behind this monthly increase were mainly “bread and cereals”, “meat”, “milk, eggs and cheese”, and “vegetables”.
In July 2022, South Africa’s consumer food price inflation accelerated by 10,1% y/y, from 9,0% y/y in the previous month. This is the fastest pace since January 2017, which was a drought period in agriculture where costs were driven by higher agricultural commodity prices.
We are in a period of elevated prices, and food is at the core of these increases. For example, in May 2022, South Africa’s consumer food price inflation accelerated to 7,8% y/y, from 6,3% in the previous month. This is the quickest pace since March 2017.
Since the Russia-Ukraine war began four months ago, food security has dominated global media headlines. While prices of food products are rising globally, not all countries are negatively affected the same way.
The data released by Statistics South Africa this past week showed that the country’s consumer food price inflation decelerated to 6,3% y/y in April 2022 from 6,6% y/y in the previous month. This is on the back of relatively softer price increases in meat; milk, eggs and cheese; and vegetables.
The recently released data by Statistics South Africa showed that the country’s consumer food price inflation moderated to 6,6% y/y in March 2022 from 6,7% y/y in the previous month.
We now expect South Africa’s consumer food price inflation to increase modestly from readings in recent months and possibly average 6,0% y/y in 2022.
Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and the author of “Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity and Agriculture“.
He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having saved on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
His weekly podcast, “Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo“, is available on all podcast platforms.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.