It is still too early to be sure about what South Africa’s 2025-26 maize crop could be. But what we know is that farmers intend to lift the area they plant by 1% to 4.5 million hectares. They are upbeat and have been buying tractors. We have been witnessing strong tractor sales, which suggests that they are optimistic about the 2025-26 season.
Still, we will need to closely monitor the planting activity in the coming weeks to determine if the planned planting materializes. However, considering the historical perspective, it typically does. In fact, farmers have begun tilling the land in various regions of the country.
Importantly, the rainfall prospects are positive, with a forecast La Niña through to February 2026. This corresponds with the planting and crop growing timeframe. Thus, underscoring the point that we are heading to another year of possibly ample maize crop harvest.
As we close the season, we expect a maize crop harvest of approximately 16.4 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season, which is significantly above South Africa’s maize needs of 12.0 million tonnes, resulting in a considerable surplus for export markets.
I am narrating this brief view because the update from the International Grains Council about South Africa’s 2025-26 maize crop caught my attention. They foresee a slightly lower harvest of 16.0 million tonnes, compared to the 16.4 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season.
Given the possible increase in the area plantings in the 2025-26 season, and the favourable weather outlook, I am inclined to believe that the International Grains Council’s estimate is much more conservative. I think we will likely see another year of a larger crop, and perhaps even a bigger one than the 16.4 million tonnes of the 2024-25 season.
The International Grains Council reviews its figures monthly, which means they may likely lift the estimate as more information about the 2025-26 season becomes available and the planting season progresses.
Indeed, both my comments and those of the International Grains Council are generally based on early impressions; it is still early days. But we are typically optimistic that South Africa will likely have another better maize harvest season in 2025-26. What the International Grains Council published is likely on the lower end of what is possible. I remain of the view that we may as well see a bigger harvest.
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