by Wandile Sihlobo | May 16, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
Amid escalating trade tensions worldwide, the appropriate posture for SA agriculture on trade is not to prefer one country over another, but to seek ways to multiply friendships and trade relations.
China’s recent public statements about its interest in deepening agricultural trade with SA should not be seen as an avenue to replace US exports or other trading partners. Instead, this offers an opportunity to continue with export diversification.
According to Trade Map data, China is among the world’s leading agricultural importers, accounting for 9% of global agricultural imports in 2024 (before 2024, China was a leading importer for many years). The US was the world’s leading agricultural importer in the same year, accounting for 10% of global imports.
Germany accounted for 7%, followed by the UK (4%), the Netherlands (4%), France (4%), Italy (3%), Japan (3%), Belgium (3%) and Canada (2%).
SA’s agricultural trade interests should spread across all major agricultural importers in such an environment.
This is a policy approach SA has practised since the dawn of democracy, and the export activity now illustrates it. For example, in 2024, SA exported a record $13.7bn of agricultural exports, up 3% from the previous year. These exports were spread across diverse regions.
Africa maintained the lion’s share of SA’s agricultural exports, accounting for 44% of the total value.
Collectively, Asia and the Middle East were the second-largest agricultural markets, accounting for 21% of the share of overall farm exports. The EU was SA’s third-largest agricultural market, with a share of 19%.
In 2024, the Americas accounted for 6% of SA’s agricultural exports, while the rest of the world, including the UK, accounted for 10%.
The products exported differed slightly across the regions. Exports to the rest of Africa primarily consist of grains, sugar, apples and pears, fruit juices, wine, soya bean oil, sunflower oil, oilcake and rice, among other products.
The Asian and Middle-Eastern regions have similar products, with the addition of beef, mutton and wool.
Meanwhile, exports to the EU and UK are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, dates, avocados, pineapples, fruit juices, apples and pears, berries, apricots and cherries, nuts and wool. This again confirms that products perform differently across markets, further supporting a view of maintaining wide access to a range of export regions.
China remains an attractive area for SA, but signalling the willingness to absorb more SA agricultural products is only the first step. The next steps should be a realistic reduction of the import tariffs and the removal of the phytosanitary barriers that certain agricultural products continue to encounter in the Chinese market. Indeed, the work must be led by the Department of Trade, Industry & Competition, the Agriculture Department, and, at some points, also the Department of International Relations & Co-operation.
However, China must also demonstrate an effort to collaborate beyond the statements. While China is the second-largest agricultural market, SA has a small share in the Chinese list of agricultural suppliers, at about 0.4%.
However, this access in China, in the same view as citrus, wine grapes, nuts and wine in the US market, is vital for the wool and red meat industries. China accounts for about 70% of SA’s wool exports. There is a progressive increase in red meat exports, even though animal diseases cause glitches.
Focus should be on expanding this access by lowering duties and other non-tariff barriers in the Chinese market.
SA’s agriculture sector should continue to insist on strengthening relations with all existing trading partners and expanding into new markets.
Written for and first appeared in the Business Day.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | May 12, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
China is one of the countries that quickly placed a temporary ban on purchases of South African beef after the formal announcement of the foot and mouth disease outbreak. But in today’s environment, where trade policy matters can be easily viewed with suspicion, or frankly are political, some have already asked if China is taking a strong stance because they have recently agreed to increase beef imports from Australia. My answer to this would be: no.
What China has done is generally aligned with the typical practice of countries when there is an outbreak of animal diseases. It is mainly for protecting themselves against any possible risks.
Of course, not all of South Africa has foot-and-mouth disease cases. We only have this challenge in a few provinces and certain farms, mainly in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, Eastern Cape, and Gauteng. Under these circumstances, it is fair to argue that temporary export restrictions should be imposed on the affected regions, not across the country. Notably, South Africa has long advocated for this approach. It may be fair for South African authorities to try to engage China in this possibility.
We also know that China and South African authorities signed a Memorandum of Understanding on foot-and-mouth disease last year. The document sought to encourage China to accept the compartmentalisation of South African beef imports, meaning that only the affected province would face restrictions rather than halting beef exports nationwide.
We also need to provide sufficient comfort to China about the quarantine in the affected areas, and the fact that the foot and mouth disease does not cross all livestock. It is mainly cattle, and even there, selected farms in particular provinces.
I am raising the specificity of “cattle” because China is South Africa’s largest export market for wool, accounting for roughly 70% of South Africa’s wool exports. In 2022, when we had an outbreak of foot and mouth disease, China also temporarily banned imports of wool, which had not been affected. So, we don’t want to see such challenges again as they present immense financial challenges to farmers.
The ideal step then is for the South African authorities to engage China about the sheep industry again proactively.
In a way, one would summarise the possible interventions insofar as trade in livestock products is concerned as the following:
- South Africa must again underscore to trading partners that the foot and mouth disease outbreak is in a few farms, mainly in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, Gauteng, and the Eastern Cape. Stringent controls are already in place in these farms. Therefore, the unaffected areas should be permitted to continue trading.
- The trade in sheep, sheep products, and other small stock is unaffected, and no trade restrictions should exist.
- It also provides comfort that South Africa will increase its surveillance and vigilance and provide continuous, transparent updates.
Ultimately, we can’t blame countries like China for being extra careful. A few years ago, China had challenging animal diseases like African swine fever, significantly reducing China’s pork production and presenting upside food inflation pressures. That experience possibly adds to the extreme vigilance we are witnessing there.
Ultimately, some will question what this means for food inflation in South Africa. When there are still trade frictions, we may see some downward pressure on prices, at least in the near term.
We were in an environment where red meat prices started to increase. Because of improving domestic demand, we flagged meat as an upside risk to food price inflation. That view may have to be revised somewhat in the face of the current trade restrictions on red meat exports, which will lead to a slight increase in domestic supplies.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | May 10, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
At the end of April, we completed South Africa’s 2024-25 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season, which was challenged by the mid-summer drought and led to the 22% decline in South Africa’s maize harvest to 12,85 million tonnes.
The big help in that season came from the gains of the previous ones. For example, the season started with 2,40 million tonnes of opening/carryover stocks from the past season, ultimately boosting the available maize supplies in the country. This added to the harvest of 12,85 million tonnes. These overall maize supplies were against the domestic needs of 11,6 million tonnes, leaving the country with substantial maize for exports.
The available exports were of great help to the southern Africa region, which was severely hit by the drought. For example, Zimbabwe lost 60% of their maize crop, Zambia lost half of its crop, and other neighbouring countries experienced significant losses. This meant that there was increased reliance on South Africa.
Thankfully, South Africa was better placed to help export more maize. At the end of the 2024-25 marketing year in April 2025, South Africa had exported 2,2 million tonnes, substantially well above the long-term average levels. About 66% of these exports were white maize and 34% were yellow maize.
Several countries benefited from these exports, especially in southern Africa. But no country benefited more than Zimbabwe, which accounted for 57% of South Africa’s maize exports between May 2024 and April 2025, or about 1.3 million tonnes of white and yellow maize.
South Africa was exporting to the southern African region, so it had to import to supplement supplies, mainly in the coastal areas. However, another factor behind the increase in imports was the price competitiveness of imports. South Africa ended the 2024-25 season with 938,116 tonnes of maize imports, which mainly originated in Argentina, Brazil, and the United States.
Still, when one accounts for these imports and exports of 2.2 million tonnes, it remains clear that South Africa was a net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 season. South Africa did not experience a massive decline in maize production as its neighbouring countries did, partly because of the improved seed cultivars and better farming methods.
It is not because of irrigation, as the area of maize production under irrigation in South Africa is roughly 10% of the 2,5 million hectares the country plants. This again speaks to the issue I have raised elsewhere about the need for African countries to embrace improved seed cultivars and agrochemicals to boost farm output.
Improved agricultural technologies would also help mitigate the climate crisis, as South Africa remains a net exporter despite intense drought.
We are now in the 2025-26 marketing year, which started this month, and corresponds with the 2024-25 production season. This time around, the maize production prospects are far more favourable. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is estimated at 14.66 million tonnes, up 14% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from expected annual yield improvements. And yes, this crop is well above the long-term average.
Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of just under 12 million tonnes, which implies that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
In the coming months, you will likely read about maize quality issues caused by the excessive rains in April, but I suspect this will not be a widespread challenge and will unlikely change the overall size of the harvest. We will also likely see a slow pace in harvest activity compared to past years because of the season’s late start.
Also worth noting is that we continue to read about the improvement in maize production in the regions. For example, Zimbabwean farmers likely planted 1.7 million hectares of maize this year, slightly lower than last year, but decent. We will know more about the yields in the coming weeks and months.
Still, this year’s improved weather conditions across southern Africa mean the season will improve.
The core point is that while South Africa was hit by the drought last year, the country could export over two million tonnes of maize. These exports helped cushion countries like Zimbabwe from the food security crisis.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | May 8, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
We have been saying for some time that 2025 will be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture, mainly highlighting the gains in grains, soybeans, and horticulture yields. But I was particularly pleased yesterday, May 8, when I received a report from South Africa Wine (SA Wine) indicating that we will have an excellent harvest in 2025.
SA Wine and Vinpro forecasts South Africa’s wine grapes harvest to be 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest in 2024. Importantly, the quality promises are also to be excellent. The essence of it is captured well by this statement from SA Wine:
“Mild, dry weather created near-perfect ripening conditions, yielding fruit with superb balance, flavour, and structure — the foundation of premium wine production.”
With the harvest like this, our preoccupation for the coming months will continue to be the export markets and logistics.
Indeed, the US market has dominated the trade conversation in recent weeks. However, long before the Trump tariffs, the South African wine industry and the entire agricultural sector had been focused on expanding export markets beyond the existing ones.
South Africa’s agricultural sector is export-oriented, with exports reaching a record US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year, according to data from Trade Map. This reflects both an increase in the volume of agricultural exports and higher prices of some products.
The top exported products by value include citrus, grapes, maize, apples and pears, wine, nuts, fruit juices, sugar, berries, dates, pineapples, avocados, wool, apricots and peaches, ciders, and beef.
The focus on broadening export markets becomes even more urgent as we see better quality and volumes in wine and other agricultural product output.
One of the primary areas we focus on is China, which has a large population and buying power. China accounts for 11% of global agricultural imports.
However, the South African agricultural sector, specifically the wine industry, faces some constraints. For example, we face tariffs of 14% in wine exports in China, while our competitors, such as Australia, face 0% duties as they have a trade agreement with China. We have been vocal about such issues for some time.
Now, the environment is even more urgent and appropriate to open these new markets, as China also looks to increase its agricultural trade with South Africa.
So, as we engage the US, China, EU, UK, and many trading partners, we should ensure we maintain the existing relationships and broaden to new areas with a promise of delivering high-quality products, such as the 2025 exceptional wines that South African producers are promising to deliver.
Overall, this promising wine grape harvest signifies the recovery of South Africa’s agriculture. And yes, we have quality issues in grains because of the excessive rains. Still, overall, we view this as a better year.
Thus, South African agricultural exports may reach a fresh high in 2025, surpassing the US$13,7 billion we saw in 2024. This assumes better commodity prices, in addition to the promising volumes.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | May 2, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
I have just read an interesting article on News24 that warns about the possibility of the U.S. exploring new markets for the agricultural exports they used to send to China. One product the piece uses as an example is soybeans. It correctly argues that South Africa has a huge soybean market, which is used in animal feed.
But I want to clarify: South Africa no longer relies on imports of soybeans and soybean oilcake. We have managed to lift our domestic soybean production robustly over time.
South Africa’s soybean production has grown significantly since the dawn of democracy, from 67,700 tonnes in the 1993/94 production season to an expected 2,3 million tonnes in 2024/25. The growing demand for soybean oilcake or meal by the animal feed industry stimulated this growth.
This, in turn, has been driven by an increase in the demand for high-protein food, particularly poultry products. South Africa’s per capita consumption of poultry meat has almost doubled over the past 17 years, currently estimated at around 41 kilograms.
To service the growing demand, South African agribusinesses, supported by the government, made investments to increase domestic soybean processing capacity from roughly 860,000 tonnes in 2012 to around 2.2 million tonnes now.
This was also aimed at stimulating domestic soybean production as an import substitution strategy. The farmers responded positively to these demand changes, as evidenced by the robust increase in soybean production over time.
This positive production response was an increase in planted areas and technological improvements, such as seeds, fertilisers, and better farming practices. Regarding plantings, the soybean area increased 21-fold over the past 30 years to 1.2 million hectares in the 2024/25 production season.
Before this success in expanding our soybean production, over 80% of South Africa’s soybean meal or oilcake consumption was imported in 2006/07, but South Africa is now a net exporter. In the 2023/24 season, South Africa’s soybean exports are estimated at 570,000 tonnes.
Therefore, in an environment like this, I doubt that U.S. growers will look into South Africa for soybean exports.
Still, the main point of the News24 article, which is that we must remain vigilant, is critical. Importantly, various commodities associations and the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa will need to look closely at imports now than ever. This is not calling for a protectionist view but vigilance for fairness.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | May 1, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
Southern Africa is a major market for SA’s agricultural growth prospects. Of the $13.7bn of SA’s agricultural exports in 2024, about 44% was to the African continent. About 90c of every dollar from exports to the rest of the continent was earned from Southern Africa. This is partly why SA must always seek to resolve any challenges diplomatically and promote stability in this region.
Over the past few years, we have seen some instances of trade friction in Southern Africa involving SA and its neighbouring countries. A case in point is restrictions on vegetable imports into Botswana (now lifted) and Namibia (still in place). The latest issue is with Tanzania, which temporarily restricted SA’s agricultural imports. The ban was swiftly lifted at the weekend.
The common factor in all these import restrictions is that neighbouring countries say they want to boost domestic production. Another issue is some incorrectly suggesting that their slow penetration into the SA agriculture and food market is due to restrictions.
On the latter there often are inaccurate statements about the openness of SA’s agricultural market, which is relatively open, and all of these countries are part of the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) Free Trade Area. The slow penetration is either because there has not been a formal request for market access, as in the case of Tanzania’s bananas, or because some of their products are not competitive in SA.
It is understandable that our neighbouring countries seek greater market access to SA. While a net exporter, SA was a major regional agricultural importer of $7.6bn in products in 2024, up 8% year on year, according to data from Trade Map. The uptick resulted from a slightly higher value and volume of the major products SA imports, such as wheat, palm oil, rice, poultry and whiskies.
However, for the neighbouring countries to participate meaningfully in the SA market they will need to continuously study SA’s import list closely and target particular value chains, not the ones SA already excels in, in which it imports the least. This is mainly what the likes of Tanzania should primarily target in their attempt to increase regional agricultural trade.
Regarding various countries’ efforts to boost their domestic agricultural production, it remains true that SA could provide some necessary technology and know-how. Various SA agribusinesses and commodity associations, such as the Citrus Growers Association, have expanded their operations and membership across the Southern African region to boost regional agricultural production.
The goal should be for the area to collectively improve its agricultural output, strengthen various value chains and export to the world while firming intraregional trade. However, regional stability and co-operation are vital for such processes to take off. This means minimising the trade frictions we often encounter, such as the examples we highlight. The only justifiable trade restriction in the region should be when there are animal diseases, and trade suspensions are used temporarily to contain their spread. We typically see this with outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle and African swine fever in pigs.
Aside from such cases, the region’s approach should encourage co-operation. This should not only be at a private sector level but also be a message embraced by policymakers across the region to strengthen regional agricultural value chains. In this environment of trade friction and heightened geoeconomic tensions, firming up relations at regional levels is crucial, and agriculture must be a starting point.
Written for and first published in the Business Day.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Apr 28, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
Chinese officials’ statements should always be taken with considerable seriousness, especially when it comes to matters of trade.
Under this framing, we took note when Mr Wu Peng, current Chinese Ambassador to South Africa, posted on X’s social media platform that;
“…China and South Africa need to strengthen our bilateral trade and economic cooperation. The Chinese government welcomes more South African agricultural and industrial products to enter the huge Chinese market.”
China has profound importance in global agriculture. In 2023, China was a leading importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports, with imports valued at US$218 billion. The leading suppliers of farm products to China are Brazil, the U.S., Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands, and Malaysia.
However, China has been on a journey to diversify its agricultural exports beyond these suppliers, which has accelerated following the U.S. initial tariffs in 2018 and is ongoing in 2025.
South and Latin American countries, as well as Australia, have been the primary beneficiaries of China’s diversification strategy so far.
But South Africa must also be part of this conversation. And what Ambassador Wu Peng raises — China’s interest in South African agricultural products — is a starting point for a deeper trade conversation.
The first step will have to be for South African authorities to approach China to present a range of products that can be exported, and then build from there.
South Africa remains a negligible player in the Chinese agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% (US$979 million) of China’s agricultural imports of US$218 billion in 2023. These exports include a variety of fruits, wine, red meat, nuts, maize, soybeans, and wool.
However, there is room for more ambitious agricultural export efforts.
The South African agricultural sector—organized agriculture and researchers—consistently points out the need to lower import tariffs in China and remove phytosanitary constraints on various products.
There is now a pathway to have a productive conversation about this matter and move with speed.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Apr 28, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
We are seeing a recovery in South Africa’s beef exports. In 2024, South Africa’s cumulative beef exports increased by 30% from 2023, reaching 38,657 tonnes. About 57% of this was fresh beef, and 43% was frozen beef. The key markets include China, Egypt, UAE, Jordan, Angola, Mozambique, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Mauritius, amongst others.
However, for this export momentum to continue, we must intensify our efforts to control animal diseases. Three years before this recovery, South African beef exports declined due to reduced slaughtering volumes and temporary closures in some key export markets. The major challenge was the occurrence of animal disease outbreaks across the country, primarily foot-and-mouth disease.
Animal disease outbreaks are not unique to South Africa, but they are common worldwide, as we see in the U.S., parts of the UK, and Europe.
However, South Africa’s challenges have intensified in recent years due to specific biosecurity weaknesses. For example, in 2022, six of South Africa’s nine provinces reported outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease. This was the first time in the country’s history that the disease had spread this widely.
The challenging place the country found itself in prompted the government and industry stakeholders to increase their focus on strengthening farm biosecurity controls and surveillance.
Other interventions that are still underway include efforts to improve South Africa’s veterinary and related support services, primarily the laboratories, which deal with vaccine production needs.
The cost of diseases in the livestock industry is felt through the loss of livestock, reduced exports to the global market during outbreaks, and a slowdown in the country’s agricultural fortunes.
You see, livestock and poultry account for roughly half of agriculture’s gross value added. Therefore, to ensure solid growth in the South African farming economy, we must devote sufficient resources and human capital to strengthening animal health.
Moreover, livestock also significantly contributes to the inclusion of black farmers in commercial agricultural production. Therefore, the prevalence of animal disease outbreaks in recent years has arguably slowed the process of inclusion and transformation in the sector.
Not out of the woods
This improvement in disease control has partly contributed to the recovery in exports in 2024.
However, the industry is not yet out of the woods. There have been recent outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the Eastern Cape. These require a sharper focus to contain them, allowing the unaffected provinces to continue their export activities.
In the long term, we will need to systematically enhance our biosecurity controls to reduce the frequency of these diseases. The starting point could be revitalising Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP), a state-owned vaccine manufacturer, and the Agricultural Research Council.
For some time, the OBP has experienced challenges with vaccine manufacturing, and South Africa has had to rely on importing products from countries such as Botswana. Rooting out corruption and rebuilding capacity in these organisations is crucial to driving South Africa’s agricultural sector.
Of course, the continuous promotion of exports by many private South African companies, organisations, and industry representatives, such as Red Meat Industry Services and the National Animal Health Forum, amongst others, is vital.
Continuous efforts on beef exports
We must work more diligently to open new export markets for the beef industry, particularly in the BRICS grouping, the broader Middle East, and the EU, among other regions.
The robust focus on promoting exports, coupled with the marketing of South African beef globally and domestically, and the focus on strengthening animal health, are all vital for the progress of our farming economy.
And again, maintaining animal health—strengthening its biosecurity and reviving vaccine manufacturing—is key to South Africa’s ambition for red meat exports.
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