by Wandile Sihlobo | Jan 16, 2025 | Africa Focus
Whenever I see challenges within South Africa’s agriculture, Zimbabwe is the other country I think of as their challenges are often worse. Notably, South Africa typically has to shoulder Zimbabwe when there are challenges, specifically in staple grain production.
Consider the 2023-24 production year, when Zimbabwe had a challenging season due to the mid-summer drought that affected Southern Africa. Zimbabwe’s maize harvest fell nearly 60% to around 635 000 tonnes, the lowest since the 2015-16 production season when the country experienced a drought.
Although a significant factor, the drought is not the only reason for the fall in Zimbabwe’s maize harvest. The decline in fertilizer usage also contributed to poor yields. While fertilizer prices are down from the previous year, they remain well above the pre-COVID-19 levels, thus adding financial strain on farmers. Fertilizer makes up roughly a third of grain farmers’ input costs.
This significant decline in Zimbabwe’s maize production led to a sharp increase in imports, and South Africa played an important role in supplying maize to Zimbabwe (at market prices).
To understand how much maize Zimbabwe needs to import, consider its annual consumption of about two million tonnes. Therefore, with a harvest of 635 000 tonnes, the country needs at least a million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, which ends in April 2025, to meet domestic needs (the 2024-25 marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season).
Of course, this is a significant increase from Zimbabwe’s maize imports of 637 327 tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year, all from South Africa.
Between May 2024 and the first week of January 2025, South Africa exported 907 318 tonnes of maize to Zimbabwe. This is about 57% of South Africa’s total maize exports to the world market during this period.
Yes, South Africa was already affected by the mid-summer drought of 2024. Still, South Africa’s maize harvest did not fall as sharply as we saw in Zimbabwe, partly because of improved seed cultivars and better fertilizer usage, among other things. Irrigation is not a major factor, as only 10% of South African maize is under irrigation, and the rest is rainfed. We also see similar proportions of maize under irrigation in Zimbabwe.
The immense demand for maize from Zimbabwe and other African countries partly accounts for the higher maize prices in South Africa.
But this is all history. I am now focusing on how much maize Zimbabwe will plant in the 2024-25 production season, which is underway (this corresponds with the 2025-26 marketing year that starts in May 2026).
For South Africa, this has been a tricky season, with some regions experiencing late-starting rains. Still, we have started receiving widespread rains, and we are optimistic that South Africa will recover in agricultural production in the 2024-25 season.
On January 14, 2025, The Herald, a newspaper, reported that Zimbabwean farmers had planted 1.7 million hectares of maize, about 97% of the area they intended to plant.
These are government figures, which can often be tough to trust. The Zimbabwean government has a long history of being economical about its agricultural data, often overstating things.
Be that as it may, this would be roughly in line with the area Zimbabwe planted in the 2023-24 season and slightly below the average area of 1,9 million hectares for maize. The government attributes the decline in the area planting this 2024-25 season to the late start and the excessive rains that have prevented farmers from planting within the optimal window.
It is early to speculate about Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize production. Still, it is worth noting that this is an area South Africa must continuously monitor. Any challenges with their harvest would ordinarily be South Africa’s responsibility.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Jan 15, 2025 | Africa Focus
African agricultural ministers gathered in Kampala, Uganda, from Thursday, 9 January to Saturday, 11 January for the “Extraordinary Summit on the Post Malabo Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP)”.
If you haven’t followed African agricultural affairs, you may wonder what this is all about. The programme was founded in 2003 to unlock Africa’s agriculture and address the continent’s poverty challenges.
The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme has ambitious goals, such as increasing Africa’s agricultural fortunes by 6% a year and urging the member countries of the African Union to allocate 10% of their annual budgets to agriculture. For agricultural ministers in any African country, such an allocation, even if aspirational, is enough to encourage them to promote their sector and use the figure to justify their demands to the national treasuries.
However, the reality is that there are far too many demands on resources in most countries, and agriculture spending remains below the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme targets. Even South Africa doesn’t score well in the targets, with a score of 4.1 out of 10.
One of the development programme recommendations is that South Africa should increase public expenditure in agriculture, enhance access to agriculture inputs and technologies (such as investments in irrigation for smallholder farmers), and to agricultural financial services by men and women engaged in agriculture.
The private sector remains key to growth
Still, focusing on the crucial aspect of growing Africa’s agriculture and addressing poverty has merit, as this sector accounts for a significant share of many African economies.
But I sometimes get despondent about these big African agricultural gatherings because it is not always clear if they deliver the desired results for the people — growth in agriculture. For example, Africa’s agricultural production still struggles with low productivity. The increase in output in recent years has primarily been due to an expansion in the planted area rather than a yield boost. To address hunger, we should focus on getting more output per hectare in our agricultural activities and embrace technology that assists in this drive.
The big conferences help stimulate discussion and elevate the sector’s profile. However, progress will require the private sector and dedicated governments to boost each African country’s agricultural output.
We have seen first-hand the benefit of a robust private sector in South Africa. If one looks at the data, South Africa’s agriculture remains an outlier in Africa. The sector has more than doubled in value and volume terms since 1994. The adoption of new production technologies such as better genetics, seed varieties, and mechanical advancements; better farming skills, growing local and global demand, and progressive trade policy driving exports have been catalysts of growth.
This was made possible by a range of trading agreements the South African government secured over the past couple of years, the most important being those with African, European and Asian regions. The African continent and Europe now account for about two-thirds of South Africa’s agricultural exports. Asia is also an important market for South Africa’s agricultural exports, demanding roughly 25% export share.
The private sector has been an integral part of the South African agriculture success story, while the government has had to ensure that policy remains favourable for investors and farmers. The priorities for the government were to ensure:
- That there are no interventionist trade policies (blocking exports) or price caps.
- That infrastructure (roads, rail, water and electricity) is in place.
- That there is strong protection of property, and proper land governance.
Openness to scientific advancements in seed breeding and agrochemicals and genetics is one of the positives that the South African government ensured.
This was all anchored in the sound financial system that supported commercial production and international trade.
Five key lessons from South Africa
So, suppose we are serious about Africa’s agricultural development and the broad political statements of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme and others. In that case, we should ask: What can other African regional countries take from this South African agricultural story of private sector-led growth?
- Extending title deeds or tradable leases to farmers and agribusinesses is vital for attracting investment.
- Investments in infrastructure are critical for improving value chains.
- Embracing technological advancements in seeds, genetics, and agrochemicals can boost productivity.
- Limited trade and commodity price interventions are essential for ensuring policy certainty and ultimately attracting investment.
- Supporting commercial farming, which will be essential for the growth of the agro-processing part of the various countries’ food systems and a source of employment, is a critical step for agricultural progress in Africa.
South Africa is not a perfect country. We have our unique challenges, such as rising crime, failing municipalities, deteriorating roads, problems at the ports, and a slow inclusivity journey, among other things.
Still, judging from a broad national performance, South Africa offers many lessons for Africa. Through its agricultural progress, South Africa is now the only African country in the top 40 global agricultural exporters, ranked 32, with exports valued at US$13,2-billion in 2023. South Africa is also the most food-secure country in the sub-Saharan region, notwithstanding the household food insecurity that needs to be addressed.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Dec 29, 2024 | Africa Focus
I probably should not be focusing too much on vegetables; a lot is happening in the world. Still, I want to underscore that we must form greater collaboration in the Southern Africa region’s agricultural community to expand production and address the poverty issues.
We cannot afford to struggle with trade friction as we recently saw Botswana and Namibia blocking vegetables and fruit imports from South Africa. Thankfully, Botswana has corrected this policy mistake and is gradually removing the restrictions.
And yes, no one disputes that both Namibia and Botswana should work to develop their domestic agricultural production where production conditions permit.
My issue has been the unfair complete ban or restrictions on vegetables and citrus exports from South Africa to both countries. Consumers in both countries have also struggled with higher prices due to supply constraints. The economist Ndaba Gaolathe, who currently serves as Botswana’s Vice President and Finance Minister, recently stated that:
“Anything that requires tariffs to sustain it, even in the short term, is bad economics. What is happening now is that food and vegetables have become more expensive in Botswana. Low-income groups — people who are already struggling — are spending a larger percentage of their income on food.”
What Gaolathe raises here is very important and partly at the core of the points I raised elsewhere, highlighting that with the removal of the restrictions, the people of Botswana will now have access to better-priced and high-quality vegetables from South Africa.
In November 2024, South Africa’s vegetables were deflated (-2,6%). Meanwhile, in Botswana, vegetable price inflation was still double digits. This speaks to the difficulty the households had to ensure and the potential benefits of affordable prices in the coming months.
I hope Namibia follows the same approach soon. The current restrictions present similar pressures in Namibia, as was the case in Botswana, and they are also not in the spirit of regional agricultural development.
Lifting the ban does not mean these countries have given up on their domestic production efforts. They will keep focusing on such efforts while easing near-term pressures on consumers. Gaolathe, speaking about his country’s challenges, noted that:
“more effective measures could include directly subsidizing vegetable farmers by establishing a dedicated fund for them.”
Gaolathe also saw the need for research and development as central to booting Botswana’s vegetable production. I fully support this view and would add that their production efforts will require collaboration and clear communication about their production intentions, especially with South Africa, a major regional agricultural producer. South Africa will share technology and know-how to boost production there (as in other commodities). The coordination could be at the organized agriculture level and government.
Our energy must be channelled towards growing Southern Africa’s agriculture and food security, and not in trade friction within a free trade area, the Southern African Customs Union (SACU).
Another issue that is appropriate to highlight is how important the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region is for South Africa’s agricultural exports. We enjoy tariff-free access to various region countries, supporting South Africa’s agricultural growth. And yes, South Africa’s agricultural growth has dwarfed that of neighbouring countries, partly contributing to some countries’ current trade friction and discontent.
Still, we need a robust agricultural sector in South Africa to stabilise food security in the entire Southern Africa region. This sector also plays a key role in supporting development in other countries. The benefits could be much more evident when there is a focused regional agricultural development view with a buy-in of all key countries’ agricultural ministers.
Equally, South Africa must approach every friction in the region with maturity and understanding that there is a lot of economic value at hand. For example, South Africa exported US$13,2 Billion of agricultural products in 2023. About 40% of this is to the African continent.
However, these exports to Africa are concentrated in Southern Africa. Roughly 80 cents in every dollar of South Africa’s agricultural exports to Africa is from the Southern Africa region. With an economic value like this, we cannot discuss blocking trade from our neighbours. We must seek an understanding of their challenges and work collaboratively to resolve them – a confrontational approach would be unhelpful.
This is why stability and peace in the Southern Africa region are key for South Africa’s agriculture. Beyond trade restrictions, the current unrest in Mozambique is an example of such challenges that the region should work to resolve speedily.
There are human rights and political matters that others have discussed, but the point I want to highlight is that these are risks to South Africa’s agricultural prosperity.
The stability in the region is essential for the people and businesses, including the farming sector of South Africa, which benefits immensely from exports.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Dec 14, 2024 | Africa Focus
I am encouraged that the leadership in Botswana has decided to lift the ban on vegetable imports from South Africa. The new administration under President Duma Boko wants to ensure that the people of Botswana have access to high-quality agriculture and food products.
The people of Botswana will now have access to better-priced and high-quality vegetables from South Africa. In November 2024, South Africa’s vegetables were deflated (-2,6%). Meanwhile, in Botswana, vegetable price inflation was still double digits. This speaks to the difficulty the households had to ensure and the potential benefits of affordable prices in the coming months.
The process of lifting the ban on vegetable imports from South Africa will be in two phases. In Phase One, the import restrictions were lifted immediately on vegetables such as turmeric, patty pan, pumpkin, sweet potatoes, green peas, mushrooms, and eggplant, among other products.
Phase Two will be in April 2025, and the ban will be lifted on beetroot, butternut, onions, tomatoes, sweet paper, potatoes and watermelons, amongst other products.
I am acutely aware of Boswana’s ambition to boost agricultural production where land capabilities permit, which must be supported. There are better ways of improving domestic production without banning imports from South Africa. I think Botswana could benefit from some of South Africa’s technologies to improve its agriculture.
There are already some cases in which various countries in the region benefit from South Africa’s agricultural technologies. A case in point is the citrus industry, where research is primarily done in South Africa and shared with the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa members. Similarly, South Africa has imported some vaccines for the livestock industry from Botswana in the past few months.
This example shows that cooperation could lead to effective regional agricultural development.
Going forward, each country’s approach should be to communicate its ambitions and not resort to trade-distorting mechanisms that undermine consumer welfare. Equally, South Africa, as a significant agricultural producer in the region, should continuously seek to broaden export markets in other areas, such as Asia and the Middle East, to benefit the Southern Africa region.
The export growth in the coming years should focus on the Middle East while maintaining access to the existing markets. The Southern African countries are working to expand their agricultural production, so South Africa must focus on broadening access to new regions with potentially more robust demand. But this will not be an overnight effort, especially in the current climate of trade fragmentation.
A similar approach from Namibia is critical. Namibia still has various restrictions on South Africa’s vegetable imports. They must follow Botswana’s policy approach and lift the restrictions on vegetable imports from South Africa. This will also be ideal for the consumers in Namibia.
After that, the Ministers of Agriculture in the region should encourage knowledge sharing amongst agricultural stakeholders so the countries that intend to boost their production in the coming years can easily access the best technologies and know-how.
If any of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries believe their agricultural industries are under pressure from exports from South Africa; in such a case, there should be clear communication about such a matter so the exporters can provide space for domestic supplies. Southern Africa’s agricultural collaboration could be achieved without the trade confrontation.
Overall, the decision by the new leadership of Botswana to lift the ban on the imports of vegetables from South Africa and the speed at which this action will be taken is commendable. We need to work continuously on strengthening regional agricultural collaboration and resist any urge to complicate trade in the region in the future. Namibia must now follow the same approach, which will be vital to boosting domestic food security.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Dec 9, 2024 | Africa Focus
OK, folks, I didn’t think I would have to say anything about Nigeria’s maize market for some time, but here we go. The Nigerian government wants to ban the exports of maize. Since Nigeria is a prominent African country, this has caught some headlines.
But, Nigeria is not an essential player in the maize trade. I am looking at Nigeria’s maize export data from 1960; the highest export volume was in 2016, at about 200k tonnes. This is small (by comparison, countries like South Africa export over 3,0 million tonnes of maize in favourable seasons).
The reason is that while the country plants maize in 5,5 million hectares (twice the size of maize plantings in South Africa), the yields are poor, and the harvest is typically 12,5 million tonnes. By contrast, South Africa plants about 2,5 million hectares and has harvested over 16,0 million tonnes. The difference is the seed cultivars, fertilizer usage, and farming techniques, amongst other things.
Nigeria wants to criminalize maize exports because of the relatively poor yield and higher prices. The USDA estimates Nigeraia’s maize harvest for the 2023-24 season to be 11,0 million tonnes, down from 12,9 million tonnes in the past season.
This is slightly below their annual consumption of 12,7 million tonnes. So, they will likely bring around 110k tonnes through imports to fulfil the shortfall. These tight maize supplies have led to the move to ban exports.
Nigeria’s temporary absence in maize exports may not necessarily have noteworthy implications for the global (maize) market. It may slightly affect the neighbouring countries.
Overall, Nigeria’s pedestrian maize production tells us the country must do more to improve its productivity. This requires embracing openness to biotech, amongst other interventions I discussed in this TED Talk.
I hope you can watch the 11-minute clip to appreciate South Africa’s progress in its agriculture and learn about what countries on the African continent can learn from South Africa’s experience.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 20, 2024 | Africa Focus
We had a tough summer season in Southern Africa, with El Nino induced drought that led to significant crop failures in the region. Zambia and Zimbabwe, among others, lost roughly half of the staple maize harvest. These countries must now rely on imports of maize to stabilize the domestic supplies for the year. We will likely remain in these challenging conditions until May 2025, when the new season harvest gets into the market.
The impact of the poor harvest is starting to show at household levels. For example, an article in Business Day Africa on August 20 indicates that:
“Elisa Magosi, the SADC Executive Secretary, has called for urgent humanitarian assistance, reporting that 68 million people across the region are now at risk of hunger. The crisis is particularly acute in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, which have traditionally supplied food, especially maize, to East Africa. Zambia, previously a key maize exporter, is now dealing with a significant deficit exacerbated by the drought. The country seeks to import at least 500,000 tonnes of maize from Uganda to mitigate the shortfall.”
Zambia is not the only country seeking large maize imports. Consider Zimbabwe, the country’s maize harvest is down roughly 60% from the 2022-23 production season to an estimated 635,000 tonnes. This is the lowest harvest since the 2015-16 production season, another drought year.
This significant decline in Zimbabwe’s maize production means that the import needs will increase sharply. Zimbabwe’s domestic maize consumption is typically at about two million tonnes. Thus, the United States Department of Agriculture’s Pretoria-based analysts estimate that Zimbabwe may need to import at least a million tonnes in the new marketing year of 2024-25 is convincing (the 2024-25 marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season). Such an import figure is a significant increase from Zimbabwe’s maize imports of 637,327 tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year, all from South Africa.
Unlike the 2023-24 marketing year, where South Africa’s overall maize exports were 3,4 million tonnes, in the new 2024-25 marketing year, South Africa’s maize exports will likely fall to 1,85 million tonnes. This is on the back of a poor domestic harvest. South Africa’s maize harvest is estimated at 13,34 million tonnes, down 19% from the previous season because of the mid-summer drought. This volume comprises both white and yellow maize. White maize is about 6,35 million tonnes (down 26% year-on-year), and yellow maize is at 6,99 million tonnes (down 12% year-on-year).
These exports will primarily be for the Southern Africa region. In fact, between May and the first week of August 2024, South Africa had already exported 567k tonnes out of the expected 1,85 million tonnes. The principal beneficiary is Zimbabwe and a range of neighbouring African countries.
Admittedly, South Africa did not experience a sharp fall in production, unlike Zimbabwe or Zambia, where the domestic maize harvests are down by over 50%. Part of the reason is differences in farming practices and the improved seed cultivars in South Africa, among other factors. The significant difference is using improved seed cultivars, fertilizer, and agrochemicals. Irrigation is not a major factor, as only 10% of South African maize is under irrigation, and the rest is rainfed. This is similar to Zimbabwe’s maize proportion under irrigation.
In essence, we have spent the past few months highlighting the impact of the drought on farms, but now we are seeing it on the consumers. The next couple of months will likely be challenging in the region, with the hope for relief from the next season’s agricultural harvest. The preliminary estimates from various weather services suggest we may be moving to a La Nina period that would bring rain. Until then, the conditions outside South Africa are worrying.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Jun 11, 2024 | Africa Focus
Zambia’s maize production in the 2023/24 season is down by over 50% to an estimated harvest of 1,6 million tonnes because of the intense heat wave and mid-summer drought. The country must now import about a million tonnes of maize to meet its domestic annual needs.
The government has encouraged the private sector in the country to ramp up its effort to import maize. However, the challenge is that they want only non-genetically modified maize. Zambia still prohibits cultivating and importing genetically modified maize (GMO maize).
It is already a challenge to find white maize in the world market regardless of whether it is GMO or GMO-free, as the major producers are the Southern African region (South Africa specifically) and Mexico. Most of the world’s maize is yellow maize for animal feed.
The drought has hit the entire Southern Africa region. The Southern Africa region’s primary maize producer, South Africa, saw its harvest fall by 19% year-on-year to 13,3 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season. Still, South Africa could have about 1,5 million tonnes for the export markets. This is both white and yellow maize.
South Africa is out of the equation when considering GMO-free maize, as the country’s maize is roughly 85% GMO. Then Zambia will have to put its faith in Mexico and Tanzania for GMO-free maize supplies. Whether they will succeed in securing such supplies remains an open question. I am not as optimistic as these countries also face challenges in their production season.
Path forward
I think Zambia should consider adjusting its policies and permitting the importation of GMO maize, which can be transported directly to millers if they don’t want the grain to reach farmers. This is an approach Zimbabwe uses; thus, they are amongst the significant maize importers from South Africa.
In the medium term, however, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and many other countries in the region should consider reviewing their GMO policies. The Southern Africa region, and indeed, the African continent, must embrace technology and the newly improved seed cultivars to boost domestic production.
Admittedly, there are legitimate debates about the ownership of seeds and how smallholder farmers could struggle to obtain seeds in some developing countries. These are realities that policymakers in African countries should manage regarding reaching agreements with seed breeders and technology developers but not closing off innovation. Technology developers also need to be mindful of these concerns when engaging with various governments in African countries.
South Africa is the only exception that has embraced genetically modified crops since the 2001/02 season. The country has also enjoyed improvements in yields and is now a leading producer of grains in the region. For example, according to the data from the International Grains Council, South Africa produces about 16% of sub-Saharan maize, utilizing a relatively small area of an average of 2.5 million hectares since 2010.
In contrast, countries such as Nigeria planted 6.5 million hectares in the same production season but only harvested 11.0 million tonnes of maize, equating to 15% of the sub-Saharan region’s maize output. Irrigation has been an added factor in South Africa, but not to a large extent, as only 10% of the country’s maize is irrigated, with 90% being rainfed, making it similar to other African countries.
Notably, although the yields are also influenced by improved germplasm (enabled by non-genetically modified biotechnology) and improved low and no-till production methods (facilitated through herbicide-tolerant genetically modified technology), other benefits of genetically modified seeds include labour savings and reduced insecticide use as well as enhanced weed and pest control. Hence, with the African continent currently struggling to meet its annual food needs, using technology, genetically modified seeds, and other means should be an avenue to explore to boost production.
In essence, many African governments should reevaluate their regulatory standards and embrace technology. In the case of Zambia, we are now at an appropriate time for such reform, and the government must embrace change for the good of farmers and consumers. Zambia should take advantage of the available maize surplus in South Africa by adjusting its policies and permitting imports. Failure to do so will not necessarily hurt the South African farmers, as they will still have robust demand from Zimbabwe and continue to export there and other world regions such as the Far East. The people who will be at a loss are the Zambian consumers who have to be content with reduced maize supplies at higher prices.
A rethink of the seed policies is long overdue in the long term. The improved seed cultivars are part of the technologies that will help Africa’s agriculture adapt to climate change. Therefore, governments should think of it that way.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Feb 11, 2024 | Africa Focus
I am looking at the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) crop production data, and they have an interesting extract on Zimbabwe’s wheat industry.
The USDA forecasts Zimbabwe’s wheat production for the 2023/24 marketing year at 240,000 tonnes, up 37% year-on-year, which is very encouraging.
This is mainly supported by an expansion in the area planted and improved irrigation. The USDA states that “Zimbabwe’s wheat is nearly 100% irrigated and grown by commercial farmers who deliver their harvest to Zimbabwe’s Grain Marketing Board.”
Such an improvement in the harvest prospects will help reduce Zimbabwe’s wheat import needs. The country consumes roughly 410,000 tonnes of wheat a year. This means while production increased, Zimbabwe will still import wheat to fulfil domestic needs.
Major deviations
However, these USDA figures are miles apart from what the Zimbabwean government reported – a crop of 468,000 tonnes.
In a dataset stretching as far back as 1960, Zimbabwe has not produced a wheat harvest of over 400,000 tonnes. Thus, I am more inclined to believe the USDA figures for now and only observe the government estimate of 468,000 tonnes, with a major dose of uncertainty.
Had Zimbabwe expected such a major wheat harvest, continuous imports would not be needed to supplement the domestic needs. Yet, Zimbabwe continues to import wheat from various countries.
Also worth noting is that Zimbabwe is buying some wheat from South Africa. So far, in the 2023/24 marketing year, South Africa exported 21 832 tonnes of wheat to Zimbabwe.
With mixed-up production data like this, one should keep a close eye on this matter; better data should be available in the coming months.
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