by Wandile Sihlobo | Feb 23, 2025 | General Comments
On the sunny morning of 5 April 2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic had provided a breather following a sharp wave of infection, I drove from my office at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa in Pretoria to a farm in Bronkhorstspruit.
Bronkhorstspruit is a small town of roughly 3 720 people, located 50 kilometres east of Pretoria in the Gauteng province of South Africa. I was on a visit to Gift Mafuleka’s farm. Gift is a young, black commercial farmer who hails from the Esikhawini region of Richards Bay in KwaZulu-Natal. He started farming commercially in Bronkhorstspruit after a successful stint at McCain Foods South Africa (McCain), where he had progressed to crop manager on one of their farms. After he left McCain to start his own enterprise, he leased a farm from the South African government, which it had obtained from private owners for the purpose of land reform – known as Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS) farms, one of the land redistribution strategies introduced in 2006. The farms acquired in this manner are not transferred to black land reform beneficiaries; instead, they are given non-tradable short-term leases, while the ownership of the land remains with the government.
These leases typically vary from five to 30 years, followed by the option to transfer ownership, which seldom happens. This time frame in itself is frightening, as it suggests that if one receives a lease at age 30, one might have an option to buy the land at the age of 60 – this in a country where World Bank data suggest that life expectancy was 64 in 2019. This means a person can farm their whole life without ever feeling ownership and making a tangible investment in a farm under legislative arrangements such as the Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy. There might be other arguments against this point, but this book is not about land reform, so I won’t dive into this further. Suffice to mention that this method of land reform has many downsides that constrain black farmers, some of which I discussed in my previous book, Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity & Agriculture. The commonly cited challenge is the lack of collateral, which leaves the land reform beneficiaries cash-starved and often causes their farming ventures to fail.
Gift’s story on the day of my visit was a positive one. The Cable News Network (CNN) was shooting a segment for its show, ‘Connecting Africa’, with journalist Eleni Giokos showcasing the success of African farmers and the untapped potential in this sector. They chose Gift, in part, to show the success of young black farmers. This is not mentioned in the show, but was shared with me by the producers in our conversations after the shoot. Gift was in the middle of cabbage harvesting, one of various vegetables produced on his roughly 350-hectare farm. My role there was to speak broadly about the untapped agricultural potential and avenues of investment in South Africa’s agriculture and in other parts of the African continent. The expansion in area of plantings that focus on labour-intensive and high-value agricultural commodities and investment in various value chains were some of the issues we discussed, along with opportunities for agricultural input providers.
After everyone had left, I sat down with Gift to chat about agricultural conditions, which in his case were positive as South Africa received a lot of rain in the 2020/2021 summer season. Gift was curious to know about the agricultural policy discussions in Pretoria and what we thought was the way forward to improving the participation of black farmers in commercial agriculture. After all, as of 2022, black farmers have produced between 5% and 10% of total agricultural output in South Africa. What Gift was essentially asking about were the practical means of confronting the dualism that exists in South Africa’s agricultural sector, while simultaneously ensuring the growth and sustainability of the sector.
The poor and slow implementation of land reform, inefficient government decisions and support systems, poorly structured financial support, bureaucratic delays, drought and diseases have all entrenched the divide between commercial agriculture (mainly white) and subsistence farming (mainly black).
Indeed, at the dawn of democracy, few people probably thought that South Africa would still be battling with the phenomenon of ‘two agricultures’ – or dualism – nearly three decades on. Although some progress has been made, as black farmers have joined commercial production and supply chains, the numbers are still disappointing, at less than 10%. Admittedly, there are commodities in which the inclusion of black farmers is much better than others. A case in point is the wool industry, tomato production and cattle, where black farmers’ contribution is more than 9%. There has been a deliberate effort by both the private sector and government to jointly support black farmers in these commodities; hence their inclusion at the commercial level is notable. I should also emphasise, however, that this is at best a guestimate and unfortunately hides the amazing progress in maize production, wool production, commercial beef output (where black farmers are responsible for a substantial share, of 34%), and some horticultural products.
In addition, the numbers also do not consider transactions in informal value chains and sales in small local markets. This is because the reported shares are largely extracted from records provided by the commodity organisations as part of their commitment to transformation. The incomplete picture is also a result of how the agricultural census conducted by Statistics South Africa was done by only including Value-Added Tax (VAT)-registered farmers. The 2017 agricultural census excluded 92 634 households that practised commercial farming as their main source of income, and a further 122 200 households that practised commercial farming as a secondary source of income (these are estimates from Statistics South Africa’s Community Survey of 20166).
Therefore, one can assume that around 214 800 farming households (black and white) who practise some forms of commercial farming were excluded from the agricultural census. Most of these are micro-enterprises with gross farm incomes below R500 000 per annum, but still are commercial since they sell produce.
Reasons for the slow progress of black farmers
There are several reasons behind the slow progress in black farmers’ total share of farm output. First, a lack of direction, critical and fast decision making in the national and provincial governments, as well as poorly designed programmes to support black farmers to become part of the commercial sectors. These have been a challenge for years.
Second, there has been poor adoption of the latest technology to increase productivity. The commercial farming sector, whose output has more than doubled in real terms since 1994, was able to leverage technological innovation and expansion in export markets when South Africa integrated into the world economy after years of isolation, but new entrants have not always succeeded in doing so.
Third, there is a lack of collaboration between the government and the private sector as manifested in commodity organisations, agribusinesses, commercial farmer organisations, etc. This results in the slow implementation of farmer development plans. The farmer organisations are frustrated with the lack of delivery and extreme bureaucracy.
Fourth is the inefficiency of many of the provincial departments of agriculture. This results in poor and non-delivery of critical programmes to support farmers with effective broad based support programmes, especially in the former homeland regions in KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, North West and Limpopo.
This list is not exhaustive, but it is to provide a reader a feel of the challenges that confront new entrant black farmers in South Africa.
These many factors contributing to the continuation of dualism in South African agriculture, and frustrations for young black commercial farmers like Gift Mafuleka, only require effective policy making and the right incentives
Overall message
This book will focus less on history and more on the present and the future. My motivation in writing this book was to understand why the agricultural sector is still marked by inequalities nearly three decades after the onset of democracy.
The contribution of this book is to explain why these disparities have persisted in the democratic era, and what it would take to overcome them. I dissect these issues against the backdrop of major shifts in the agricultural landscape occasioned by the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, technological shifts, and changing external market conditions.
In the book, you will find the story of the evolution of South Africa’s agriculture since 1994, and the particular challenges facing the sector. Amongst other subjects, the often ignored importance of agricultural finance, the importance of trade for South Africa’s agriculture, as well as agriculture and technology. The book is intended to give the reader a full picture of the sector, painted less in arcane numbers and more in a narrative form.
A Country of Two Agricultures, by Wandile Sihlobo, is published by Tracey McDonald Publishers and is available in all major bookstores in South Africa. You can buy it online here.
The Kindle version of the book is here.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Feb 6, 2025 | General Comments
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State Of The Nation Address (SONA) has given us some nutritious nuggets to chew on. You see, although South Africa’s agriculture has grown tremendously over the past three decades (more than doubled), it faces some challenges.
Governance
Some of the challenges confronting the sector include port inefficiencies, deteriorating roads, rural crime and stock theft, rising global protectionism, and inept municipalities.
President Ramaphosa outlined the government’s plans to address many of these challenges in his State of the Nation Address. The need for professionalization of civil servants, planned improvement of water infrastructure and simplification of regulations, ongoing reforms of Operation Vulindlela in the broader network industries, interventions on logistics, and improving safety and reducing crime are some areas the SONA highlighted.
The President captured the core of agricultural matters by stating, “By supporting our farmers, improving our logistics network and rural supply chains, and opening new export markets for products, we can significantly expand our agricultural sector.”
Social
We believe South Africa’s agriculture will see its gross value added (fortunes) expand by 30% in the coming years, creating more jobs.
Still, we think the one fundamental area that the President should have highlighted is the urgent release of the 2,5 million hectares of state land for agriculture to appropriately selected beneficiaries with title deeds.
The release of this land, combined with the reforms outlined in the SONA and the opening of the export markets, would help us grow the sector and end the dualism that has made South Africa a “Country of Two Agricultures.”
This disparity limits the sector’s growth potential and must be addressed urgently. The Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan outlines the appropriate approach for inclusive growth.
A more inclusive sector would have a much stronger shared vision and possibly grow faster. The land currently in the government books is one area where the inclusive approach could be kicked off, including more young people and women and closing racial disparities.
Environment
Another point that is silent in the SONA but broadly discussed in agriculture is sustainability. You see, South Africa has already made inroads in improving the farming methods. We must continue caring for our farming environment to ensure the land sustainably serves the next generation.
Our efforts to improve farming will also provide continuous access to key markets such as the EU, where environmental issues in agriculture are becoming a big debate.
Closing remark
Overall, while the agricultural statement was brief in the SONA, the President addressed the fundamental matters.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Jan 9, 2025 | General Comments
No one wants to hear about higher prices in January when there is so much stress on people returning to work and sending kids to school. But we can expect South African coffee prices to increase soon. Brazil and Vietnam are major producers of coffee beans. We import from both, and both have serious weather challenges – drought and heavy rains in the case of Vietnam, which have affected production.
If one looks at South Africa’s coffee imports by volume, we imported, on average, about 23 921 tonnes per annum in the past five years. Brazil and Vietnam accounted for 54% of South Africa’s coffee imports. Other suppliers of coffee to South Africa include Uganda (8% of SA’s imports), Tanzania (7%), Colombia (4%), Guatemala (4%), Ethiopia (3%), and Honduras (3%). Trade Map data shows these countries make up 84% of South Africa’s coffee imports.
While other countries have relatively stable production, the largest producers, Brazil and Vietnam, have had bad seasons. The consequence is the lower global production, which has increased coffee prices globally.
More worrying is that the coffee bean production forecasts for 2025 are not looking good either. The production challenge may persist in Brazil and Vietnam, thus keeping coffee prices elevated for some time.
Others have asked if Brazil and Vietnam have these coffee production challenges, why don’t South Africa import more from other African coffee producers? This is a fair question. But there are two things to consider.
First, coffee is a globally traded commodity (like maize or wheat), and its prices are interlinked globally. So, the difference in where South Africa decides to import coffee would be the coffee variety and distance costs. Still, the broad price direction would be the same.
Second, it is difficult to emphasize Brazil’s and Vietnam’s prominence and influence on the global coffee market. Brazil accounts for 39% of global coffee production, Vietnam 16%, and Colombia 8%. Thus, these three countries account for two-thirds of global coffee production, which explains their impact on global coffee prices.
Only Ethiopia (5% of global production) and Uganda (4%) are African countries featured in the top ten global coffee producers. To be clear, I am using the 2023-24 production season data here, but the numbers do not change much, even considering the past few seasons.
Therefore, regardless of where South Africa imports coffee, we will not escape the current upside cost pressures that coffee shops will soon pass on to consumers.
So, we are not only facing the coffee production constraints. Another critical factor in the increase in coffee prices is the growing demand for coffee in China. In its recent report, the United States Department of Agriculture states that China’s coffee consumption surged almost 150% in the last 10 years and is forecast to reach 6.3 million bags (60 kilograms) in 2024/25. So, this increase in China’s coffee demand at a time when global production is under pressure will also further add to the upside price pressures.
Importing countries like South Africa must contend with these increasing prices in the coming months.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Jan 8, 2025 | General Comments
When one examines South Africa’s agriculture production and export data today, citrus typically ranks first. The country’s production of oranges, grapefruit, mandarins, and lemons has increased significantly over time.
But it was not always the case. About three decades ago, the industries at the top of the list were mainly maize, poultry, dairy, deciduous fruit, and other livestock production. In export data, maize, wool, wine, and various fruits were primarily on the top, and citrus didn’t feature prominently.
However, the citrus industry has seen tremendous growth in recent years. This growth is due to robust global demand (roughly half of total citrus production is exported), which led to an increase in investment and the expansion of the area planted. This process created more jobs on the farms and value chain and boosted the economies of small towns. The industry accounts for over 100,000 jobs in rural South Africa.
Many people were part of this progress and transformative period in the South African citrus industry. However, few have served for as long and with as much dedication as Mr Justin Chadwick, the outgoing CEO of the Citrus Growers of Southern Africa (CGA).
Justin will retire in 2025 after a quarter of a century of service building the robust citrus industry that South Africans pride themselves on today. The credit also goes to the CGA staff and growers, who continue to support Justin in leading the organization.
Justin also values regional agricultural cooperation. This is evident through the expansion of the South African Citrus industry, which includes many countries in the region and forms a well-organized industry across Southern Africa. For example, in recent years, we have seen CGA expand its reach to include growers from Zimbabwe and others in neighbouring countries in South Africa. The skills and technology that South African growers perfected were shared with growers in the region to build
Justin continues to nurture young talent, and CGA ensures that young people are well-equipped to serve growers and build a robust citrus industry. He also supports transformation and inclusiveness, exemplified through various initiatives at CGA and its development arm. For example, the CGA has a Vision 260 initiative, which aims to increase the volumes of citrus exported by South Africa and ensure that black farmers have a notable share of the exports.
When we experience challenges in various export markets, Justin rigorously works collaboratively with the government and organized agriculture to ensure South Africa has access to multiple aspects of markets. A recent example is South Africa’s citrus export challenges in the EU. The EU used non-tariff barriers by alleging a “False codling moth“, a citrus pest, in South Africa and requiring citrus products to be kept at certain temperatures before accessing the EU market.
This happens while South Africa has already treated the products to eliminate the chances of such pest occurrence. This was a subtle form of protecting Spanish farmers, who are also major citrus producers within the EU market. The CGA and South African government continue to work to ensure South Africa has fair trade with the EU in citrus. They also inform the EU officials of how much South Africa values its relationship with the region.
As Justin retries this year, I am looking at the recent South African agricultural exports data for the first three quarters of the 2024 calendar year. The cumulative export value for the first three quarters of 2024 is up 4% from the same period in 2023, at US$10,55 billion. And you guessed it right, the top exported products by value include CITRUS (the top product), then nuts, maize, apples and pears, wine, fruit juices, sugar, dates, figs, avocados and mangos, berries, and grapes, amongst other products.
Ultimately, one can conclude that Justin is passionate about the citrus industry and agriculture, driven by a big vision for its growth, and over the years, he has pushed everyone hard to show results — traits some could easily misread as brashness. He has had tough conversations with government officials when necessary. Still, no one could doubt that he is a patriot committed to the growth and transformation of the industry.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Jan 2, 2025 | General Comments
This will likely be a year of recovery in South Africa’s agriculture. Much of the county benefitted from the La Niña rains. However, the recovery may be weaker than initially anticipated. The La Niña rains were late in some regions, such as Delmas in Mpumalanga, various regions of Limpopo, and parts of the Free State. This added strain on the grazing veld and delayed summer crop planting. Still, the overall agricultural production conditions promise to be better than in 2024, characterized by the mid-summer drought and animal disease challenge.
South Africa has also progressed notably in controlling the spread of foot-and-mouth disease and other animal diseases, such as avian influenza and African swine fever. This sets the livestock and poultry subsector in an ideal position to rebuild, provided we see a sustained recovery in the grazing veld across the country and yellow maize production, a primary feed.
Better dam levels and a stable electricity supply for irrigation will continue to benefit the horticulture subsector—fruit, vegetables, and floriculture—and set South Africa’s agriculture in an ideal position for recovery in 2025.
Reflections on 2024 performance
But let us be honest: the year we are leaving behind – 2024 – was challenging for the sector. If I can reflect on critical events and themes that dominated the South African agricultural scene, five stood out for me. Combined, they resulted in a mixed performance across the different subsectors in 2024.
First, we started the 2023-24 production season (this is the 2024 calendar year), aware that it would be a mild El Niño year, but the timing of it was uncertain at the start of the season. Consensus from various early forecasts showed that it would intensify from March onwards. Theoretically, this would not be the worst timing for farmers as the crop would have passed the pollination stages requiring moisture. As a result, we had assumed that South Africa would still achieve a decent harvest under such conditions.
Farmers planted slightly higher areas for the 2023-24 summer grains and oilseeds than the previous one. The good rains at the start of the season were a major incentive for farmers, along with relatively higher agricultural commodity prices. Indeed, for the first few months of the season, South Africa seemed to be in for a decent summer grains and oilseed harvest.
The conditions changed for the worst from February to the end of March 2024. The country did not receive any meaningful rains throughout this period, and there was also a severe heatwave. This resulted in significant crop failure and financial loss to farmers as they had planted a slightly bigger area.
By the end of the season, South Africa’s 2023-24 summer grains and oilseed harvest was down 23% from the previous season at 15,40 million tonnes. The consequence of crop failure is the tight grain supply and higher commodity prices.
Second, the animal disease continued to be a major challenge for farmers. This is understandable because we have had various cases of foot-and-mouth disease in cattle, African swine fever in pigs, and avian influenza in poultry over the past three years.
While animal disease outbreaks are not unique to South Africa and indeed common across the world, South Africa’s challenges have intensified in the recent past. In 2022, six of South Africa’s nine provinces reported foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks. This was the first time in the country’s history that the disease had spread this wide. Livestock and poultry farming account for roughly half of agriculture’s annual gross value added.
Thus, the challenging place the country found itself in prompted the government and industry stakeholders to increase their focus on strengthening farm biosecurity controls and surveillance. Other interventions that are still underway include efforts to improve South Africa’s veterinary and related support services (mainly the laboratories) that deal with vaccine production needs.
On October 25, 2024, the Department of Agriculture released even more positive news, which we believe will further support the recovery path of the industry. The Department announced that:
“the foot and mouth disease outbreak, which occurred during 2021-2022, has been successfully resolved in the North West, Free State, Gauteng, and Mpumalanga Provinces. These provinces, initially impacted by the outbreak, have now completed comprehensive testing of animals on quarantined farms. The results indicate that the foot and mouth disease virus is no longer present.”
This is admirable progress and further supports South Africa’s ambition of being a global player in red meat exports. Addressing the biosecurity challenges is essential for a successful path to the export markets.
Positive developments in 2024
Third, there were also positive developments in South Africa’s agriculture in 2024. One such positive development, which is not necessarily agriculture-specific, is the improvement in electricity supply. This positively contributed to the sector and partly to the robust horticulture production.
For example, when one considers the dependence of South Africa’s agriculture on horticulture, it is always worth highlighting that all of South Africa’s horticulture – fruits, vegetables and floriculture — depends on irrigation that needs an adequate power supply.
In crucial field crops, roughly 20% of maize, 15% of soybean, 34% of sugarcane, and nearly half of wheat are produced under irrigation.
Electricity is also heavily used in various processing activities related to red meat, poultry, piggery, wool, and dairy production. Similarly, agribusinesses and other food-producing businesses are heavy users of electricity and various downstream processing activities, such as milling, bakeries, abattoirs, wine processing, packaging, and animal vaccine production. Thus, we believe a better electricity supply enabled better operations in 2024.
Fourth, logistics infrastructure efficiency remains a primary concern for the farming sector. However, the ongoing collaboration between Transnet, private industry, and various logistical organizations helps ensure the continuous flow of products, even if there are delays in specific periods.
The gains of this collaboration are visible in the export figures. For example, South Africa’s cumulative agricultural export value for the first three quarters of 2024 is up 4% from 2023, at US$10,55 billion. This reflects an uptick in the volume of various agricultural exports and the price surge in some products.
The top exported products by value include citrus, nuts, maize, apples and pears, wine, fruit juices, sugar, dates, figs, avocados and mangos, berries, and grapes, amongst other products.
Lastly, the commitment to policy continuity after the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) is also a noteworthy development for South Africa’s agriculture. Ordinarily, when a new government begins its term, there would be a temptation to introduce new policies and programmes. At times, such practices are justified.
However, in South Africa’s agriculture, the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan has already been formulated and embraced by business, labour, government, and other social partners. There was no need to introduce a new policy, but continuity and a sharper focus on the implementation of policy and programmes. This is precisely what the seventh administration committed to doing in agriculture. This approach saved the sector valuable time, and the efforts could now be channelled towards implementing various programmes and the sector’s growth.
Amongst other things, this is partly why the sentiment in the sector improved notably in recent months.
Looking ahead to 2025
While there were numerous other developments in the sector that we do not discuss in this note, the five points outlined above were perhaps the most notable and cross-cutting in various value chains in 2024.
As we start 2025, there is renewed optimism in the sector on the back of relatively better rainfall and improvements in the animal disease control front. This may boost the output in the sector.
From a policy perspective, this year’s focus should remain on the opening of export markets, improvement of the network industries, and improving municipality performance.
Moreover, there also needs to be a relentless focus on implementing the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan as it carries relevant and necessary interventions to support the inclusive growth of South Africa’s agriculture.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Dec 16, 2024 | General Comments
While South Africa’s maize production is down 23% from the last season because of the tough mid-summer drought to an expected harvest of 12,72 million tonnes, we continue to export maize to the Southern African region. The large opening stocks from the previous season have helped to boost our supplies, enabling the exports.
For example, in the week of December 6, South Africa exported 57k tonnes of maize. Of this volume, 57% was exported to Zimbabwe, 11% to Namibia, 10% to Eswatini, and the balance to the neighbouring African countries.
This puts South Africa’s total maize exports in the 2024-25 marketing year at 1,42 million tonnes out of the expected 1,90 million tonnes (down from 3,44 million tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year because of the mid-summer drought).
Moreover, while South Africa will likely remain the net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 marketing year, the coastal regions will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed because of price advantage.
We have recently seen the imports of yellow maize from Argentina and Brazil through Cape Town. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize imports currently stand at 353k tonnes.
The 2024-25 marketing year started on May 1 2024, and will end by April 2025.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 28, 2024 | General Comments
While some regions of South Africa have already received the early 2024-25 summer rains, others haven’t received much. Farmers are understandably again worried about the prospects for the new season in some areas of the country that are still somewhat dry and with warmer temperatures.
However, I believe, supported by various forecasts from the Columbia Climate School at Columbia University and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, that the prospects of La Niña occurrence remain pretty high this season.
On October 15, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology noted;
“The ENSO Outlook is currently at La Niña Watch, meaning there remain some signs that a La Niña may form later in 2024.”
Meanwhile, the Columbia Climate School at Columbia University sees the probability of La Niña occurrence at over 60% between October 2024 and January 2025. From February, the prospects slow to below 50%, with normal weather conditions dominating throughout the summer season.
An important point to underscore here is that “normal” weather conditions in a summer season imply regular rainfall, not drought or “El Niño”. Therefore, the normalizing weather prospects from February should not be a significant worry.
Meanwhile, the dominance of La Niña weather should ordinarily present above-normal rainfall in South Africa and the entire Southern Africa region.
Admittedly, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has been more cautious than its peers to make a bold call on where we are regarding the weather prospects.
On October 5, in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, the SAWS stated
“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a Neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. Current predictions indicate the development of a La Niña state during the start of the summer season; however, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions. It is advised to monitor the ENSO system during the start of the summer season, as it may change the rainfall outlook for the summer rainfall regions if and when the La Niña materializes.”
As I write this letter on the morning of October 28, the weather prospects for the next two weeks look favourable across South Africa. There are expectations of rainfall. If it materializes, as I hope, this may be the start of the rainy summer season. Improved rainfall prospects would be ideal for agricultural recovery across South Africa and the broader Southern Africa region.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 15, 2024 | General Comments
It’s a pretty gratifying experience to be a case study in an academic paper. You can read the paper by clicking here.
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