The State of the South African countryside
My annual December drive from Pretoria to the Wild Coast in the Eastern Cape affords me an opportunity to assess South Africa’s agricultural conditions after the first few months of the summer season.
SA agriculture gross value-added rebounds in Q3, 2022
After contracting for two consecutive quarters, South Africa’s agricultural gross value added expanded by 19,2% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter of this year. The better yields of some field crops and horticulture, combined with relatively higher prices, specifically grains, and oilseeds, underpin this improvement.
SA heavy rains delay crop planting but no cause for worry
While the early part of the summer season has brought heavy rains over some regions of SA, I still consider conditions broadly favorable. The delays we see in summer grain and oilseed plantings are not a unique or particularly worrying development.
A favourable agricultural season ahead
SA could have another favourable agricultural season in 2022/2023. However, higher production will require careful planning by farmers and agribusinesses regarding finances and planting times.
A decent maize crop for SA in 2022/23 season
The USDA forecasts South Africa’s commercial maize plantings at 2,60 million hectares in the 2022/23 season, broadly aligned with the CEC, whose data points to a possible area of 2,59 million hectares. This area is slightly below the 2021/22 season of 2,62 million hectares. Still, it is well above the long-term average.
PODCAST: Kenya embracing genetically modified crops
In this week’s episode, I assess what Kenya’s decision to lift the ban on the cultivation and importing of genetically modified (GM) white maize means for the country’s long-term production.
Global body forecasts second-largest grains and oilseeds crops yet
The 2022/2023 global grains and oilseeds season presents an encouraging picture of supplies. These forecasts will probably be sufficient to provide relief from the levels the grains and oilseeds prices were at in the weeks after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Some encouraging summer crop planting data
The robust tractor sales since the start of the year, prospects of yet another La Niña albeit weaker than last season, and the relatively higher commodity prices point to possibilities of decent area plantings in the 2022/23 summer crop season.
Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and the author of “Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity and Agriculture“.
He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University and a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
His weekly podcast, “Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo“, is available on all podcast platforms.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.