Some showers in the next few days across much of South Africa would help to ensure that the 2025-26 plantings in the western regions of the country begin on time.
In the western regions of the country, which are mainly white maize and sunflower seed areas, plantings begin in mid-November. Thus, we think that if we get nice showers in the coming weeks, these regions will be able to start planting. So far, these regions have received little rain, and soil moisture remains low.
Still, we are in a La Niña rainfall season, so we aren’t as worried about moisture levels this summer. We also had late La Niña rains, starting a month and a half behind schedule, yet still ended up with an excellent crop. That is what actually happened in the 2024-25 season, and yet, we ended up with an ample harvest of 19.94 million tonnes (a 28% year-on-year increase). There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
For the eastern regions of the country, however, the picture is more positive. These regions have received favourable rainfall, and soil moisture is supportive of planting activity.
Typically, maize and soybean plantings start around mid-October in the eastern regions of the country, and we have witnessed an increase in fieldwork over the past couple of weeks while driving through those areas.
Therefore, when one sees a soil moisture map like this, there is no need for panic; these are still early days, and the weather outlook for the season remains positive.
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It is a busy time in South Africa’s agriculture. In the northern regions, the farmers are tilling the land for the 2025-26 season. In horticulture, some fruit harvests will begin soon. In winter crops, South Africa’s 2025-26 winter wheat early harvest seems to have started in some regions.
I am looking at the producer deliveries data for the 2025-26 marketing year, and we are seeing that farmers have begun delivering the new season crop to commercial silos. This crop was planted from the start of May.
In the first three weeks of this new marketing year, which started this October 2025, farmers have delivered about 45,420 tonnes of wheat to commercial silos. These are still early days, and the harvest will gain momentum in the coming months.
We have a generally better season, although not all regions are joyous about it. South Africa’s 2025-26 winter wheat harvest is forecast at 2.03 million tonnes, up 5% from last year. The annual improvement is boosted by the expected better harvest in the Northern Cape, Free State, Eastern Cape, and Limpopo.
The Western Cape, which accounts for over half of South Africa’s winter wheat production, is set to experience a mild decline in the harvest this year compared to the 2024-25 season due to unfavourable weather conditions in some parts of the province.
We will know more about the quality and yields as the harvest gains momentum in the coming months. Regarding the 2025-26 summer crop, I will likely comment on the farmers’ planting intentions data during the week.
But we are generally in a busy time in our sector. Fortunately for me, I farm on spreadsheets and MS Word.
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At the start of this year, South Africa’s Department of Agriculture, along with organised agriculture, agribusinesses, and research groups in agriculture, established the Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee of South Africa (ACAC), housed under the Department.
The ACAC meets quarterly to assess statistical matters and methodology for the collection of agricultural statistics.
The ACAC also provides a platform for organised agricultural stakeholders and industry experts to share their views on observing the evolving agricultural landscape in South Africa.
I am part of the ACAC, and today, October 13, we had a meeting for the third quarter of 2025. In the section about the agricultural conditions in the country, the ACAC viewed South Africa’s agricultural conditions as uneven, but leaning more towards the favourable growth path for most industries.
I want to lift a few passages from ACAC’s official statement, which succinctly summarise the current state of our sector.
The ACAC stated that:
“In field crops, the output is up from the 2023-24 season, boosted by the favourable rainfall and vast planting area. For example, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 19.94 million tonnes, a 28% year-on-year increase. This encompasses maize, soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum, dry beans and groundnuts. As a result of this ample harvest, the commodity prices are generally under pressure. The season was roughly a month and a half behind its typical schedule. As a result, some of the produce that would ordinarily be delivered in the second quarter was delivered in the third quarter, which may boost the gross value added figures specifically for that quarter.
In terms of sugar cane production, conditions remain favourable, and the 2024-25 crop is higher than the previous season due to the favourable rains and decent planting. Prices are, however, under a bit of pressure given that world prices are substantially lower than a year ago.
In the case of winter crops, the season has not been as favourable. The start of the season presented some snail infestation in canola-producing regions of the Western Cape, a significant winter crop-producing province of South Africa. Moreover, the drier weather conditions at the end of August and the beginning of September also weighed on the crop. Still, the production estimates remain decent, with South Africa’s winter crop estimated at 2.77 million tonnes, up 4% from the 2024-25 season. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. Winter crop prices have held up better than summer crop prices.”
The ACAC further noted that:
“Regarding fruits, the 2024-25 season has been a period of recovery. The citrus volumes, deciduous fruits, table grapes, and other fruits are all in better conditions, and across the board, harvests, along with export volumes, are well up from last year. The ACAC also sees better volumes and quality in wine production, with substantial upward revisions in the latest wine grape crop estimates. The primary concern for horticulture and wine producers remains trade policy, particularly the friction in the U.S. market and the slow pace of export diversification. At the production level, the conditions are favourable and should support third-quarter growth.
The production conditions for vegetables are also fair, benefiting from favourable rainfall. Volumes are up year on year for most major vegetables, but given that the bulk of produce is consumed locally, additional volumes do bring price pressure. Consequently, there are concerns about the profitability of some industries, such as potatoes, where prices have declined rapidly due to the large harvest.”
On the downside, the ACA said that:
“In livestock, the beef farmers and dairy producers continue to face a challenging environment due to foot-and-mouth disease. The disease and the slow process of vaccination will weigh on the profitability of farming businesses. Widespread impact from FMD has disrupted production, with slaughter volumes and carcass weights down as a result. But the one positive aspect is the better feed prices the ACAC continues to observe, following the large soybean and maize harvest.
Higher beef prices have also provided some support to pork and poultry prices, as a result of consumer substitution. These industries have shorter production cycles and can expand production to make up for beef supply disruptions. The pork and poultry industries also benefit from better feed costs, which is a significant cost driver for them, while remaining concerned about animal diseases in general.”
In a nutshell, we are experiencing an uneven recovery in South Africa’s agriculture this year.
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The writer, Jabulani Sikhakhane, has a fascinating column in the Business Day (October 8, 2025) about the need to rethink rural development in the former homelands of South Africa, extending the focus beyond agriculture. Broadly, I agree with his sentiment and much of the literature he cites in his column, which states that communities need more than just agriculture.
However, I want to emphasise that since the dawn of democracy, South Africa has consistently failed to stimulate agricultural growth in the former homelands of this country. While South Africa’s agricultural economy has more than doubled since 1994, this expansion has mainly been in the traditionally commercial regions.
The former homelands remain in the periphery of agricultural growth, although some have access to fertile lands. Poor land governance and inadequate infrastructure are among the key constraints to agricultural development. Therefore, it is unsurprising that households may lose hope in agriculture and seek to focus on other areas.
They have, for over three decades, been stuck in subsistence farming, with no coherent government programme to assist. This is an issue we detailed at length in my book, A Country of Two Agricultures, with proposed solutions that policymakers could consider to stimulate growth and job creation in rural South Africa.
Therefore, I would still argue that South Africa’s rural development should have agriculture as a central focus, but must adopt a different approach to farming that prioritises commercialisation to improve the economic conditions of the communities and bring much-needed jobs.
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We have currently entered a period of lower maize prices in South Africa. This is a relatively favourable period for South African households, livestock farmers, and poultry producers, who are the major consumers of maize.
Looking at South Africa’s white maize spot prices today, they are down by over 35% from a year ago, trading at R3,595 per tonne.
In the case of yellow maize, the pot price is down by over 20% from a year ago, trading around R3,450 per tonne.
These notable declines in maize prices illustrate the improved supplies in the domestic market. After all, we have a sizable harvest in the 2024-25 season. The Crop Estimate Committee forecast South Africa’s maize harvest at 16.12 million tonnes, which is 26% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season.
Importantly, the expected maize crop is well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
The notable decline in domestic maize prices illustrates the ample harvest. Moreover, the relatively slow pace of export activity has contributed to the decline in maize prices.
For the 2025-26 marketing year (which corresponds with he 2024-25 production season), South Africa’s maize exports are forecast at 2.24 million tonnes. This season ends in April 2026. Ideally, we should have seen robust export activity by now. But the exports have been slow.
Since the start of the year in May 2025 through to the end of September 2025, South Africa had exported about 650,897 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.24 million tonnes.
We are seeing softer demand in the African region, as some countries also have decent supplies. However, we will likely see more robust export activity later in the year and in early 2026, when some countries in the region have depleted their supplies. It is such a time when, perhaps, maize prices could nudge up a bit. But for now, we remain in a period of lower maize prices.
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At the end of August, I pondered the possibility of a canola boom in South Africa for the 2025-26 season. I based my view on the area planting and weather prospects, which were encouraging compared to the 2024-25 season.
However, as many people in South Africa’s canola-growing province, the Western Cape, would agree, the start of the 2025-26 season presented a challenge for some regions of the province. We have seen reports of snail infestations in some areas, forcing farmers to replant, a process that increases production costs.
At the end of September 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee released its second production forecast for canola, indicating a possible harvest of 311,640 tonnes, a 3% decrease from the August 2025 estimate. Notably, this remains 7% higher than the previous season. The annual gains are primarily due to the expansion in area plantings.
I must say, this is not far off from our initial estimate of a 311,661-tonne harvest of canola, which was an 8% increase from the 2024-25 season. Here, we applied a five-year average yield of 1.89 tonnes per hectare to the area of 164,900 hectares, which provided a harvest estimate of 311,661 tonnes.
Still, the expected crop of 311,640 tonnes is a fresh record, reinforcing South Africa’s position as a relatively new exporter of canola products. South Africa is now a net exporter of canola, having recently exported to countries such as Germany and Belgium.
Canola is a relatively new crop in South Africa, but it remains a success story. Since South African farmers began planting the crop commercially on 17,000 hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 164,900 hectares by the 2025-26 season.
Over the years, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings has been a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake.
There has been a shift from traditional winter wheat and barley growing areas to canola due to firm demand and price competitiveness. Canola is a winter crop, primarily planted in the Western Cape, a region with winter rainfall in South Africa.
Therefore, while the start of the season has been costly for farmers, and the harvest estimate has been lowered from the initial, bigger harvest, South Africa could still have a record harvest of 311,640 tonnes of canola. This is arguably still a canola boom in terms of a harvest, but it’s a whole different discussion in terms of profitability for farmers.
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He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
