by Wandile Sihlobo | Apr 22, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
It is increasingly clear that South Africa will need to strengthen its trade relations with the U.S. in light of the current tariff difficulties, while also attempting to deepen trade with China. After all, these are both South Africa’s leading trade partners.
China has recently stated that it will oppose any country negotiating trade deals with the U.S. at its expense.
Now, this may not apply to South Africa, as we are not looking to resolve our challenges with the U.S. at the expense of anyone.
However, I would argue that the essence of China’s comments highlights the broader point that South Africa should cultivate friendships with as many countries as possible and strengthen them with those countries. I suppose we can learn something from India, which appears to be friendly with many countries.
To underscore a point I have made here previously, it is rather that we have a naked national interest – prioritising South Africa – and not be distracted by much else.
But what would such an approach look like for the agricultural sector?
The first thing to underscore is that South Africa’s agricultural sector is export-oriented, with exports reaching a record US$ 13.7 billion in 2024, up 3% year-over-year. The export markets and products are varied, with the African continent absorbing nearly half, while the EU, the Middle East, Asia, and the UK are also sizable markets. Maintaining warm relations with all these regions is key for our agricultural sector.
I must say that the EU-South Africa agricultural trade has had a few frictions, mainly related to citrus. I get the sense that there is a growing sentiment among EU farmers that the region must manage its imports and protect domestic producers. I don’t believe EU policymakers would respond to farmers’ needs by imposing tariffs or stronger policies that discourage imports.
Therefore, in such important and yet sensitive markets, South Africa must continually strengthen relations and reaffirm the importance of the EU to our agricultural sector. Maintaining openness and friendship with the EU is crucial and essential for maintaining access to South Africa’s agricultural exports in this region.
Also worth noting is that the Middle East promises more potential for expansion, and there are no domestic competing farmer interests in this region. While a significant share of South Africa’s agricultural products are already exported to the Middle East, the presence of South African agriculture in this region is arguably still peripheral. A more robust promotion and securing of trade deals with this region is key, especially with countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar.
Equally, South Africa must work to maintain its current access to agricultural products and other goods in the U.S. market. This will entail an attempt to find a path for better trade terms after the 90-day pause that we are currently in.
The African continent, which remains a key anchor for South Africa’s agricultural exports, also requires ongoing engagement to strengthen relations. This is ideal for avoiding the friction we observed with the vegetable export ban in Botswana (now resolved and reopened), Namibia (where restrictions have not been lifted), and the banana trade issues with Tanzania.
In essence, South Africa should adopt a long-term vision and recognise that its agricultural growth relies on stronger relationships with various countries. The government should lead these efforts in collaboration with businesses to continually open up export markets.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Apr 20, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
We will have our Ukrainian friends in Pretoria this week. A range of geopolitical matters will undoubtedly be the primary focus of the leadership of both countries during this working visit by the President of Ukraine.
However, there will be business engagements on the sidelines or days leading up to the visit. The Ukrainian President may visit South Africa, accompanied by senior government officials from the economic sector. Such conversations may be about forming connections to support Ukraine as it navigates the war and explores long-term business opportunities in the post-war world, whenever that day comes.
We already see some countries, such as the United States, exploring potential commercial interests in Ukraine for the future through a possible agreement on developing Ukraine’s mineral resources.
Of course, South Africa should be under no pressure to explore such ambitious commercial interests with Ukraine as the United States.
However, the question that may arise is whether there are potential long-term agricultural trade relations that our countries could establish in the future.
Now, both Ukraine and South Africa are net exporters of agricultural products. Ukraine’s agricultural exports are approximately US$21 billion per year, according to data from Trade Map. These exports are mainly comprised of sunflower oil, maize, wheat, canola, soybeans, poultry products, barley, and sugar, among other products. China, India, the Netherlands, Egypt, Turkey, Spain, Poland, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, and Saudi Arabia are among Ukraine’s key agricultural export markets.
South Africa does not feature prominently. It ranks as the 93rd largest agricultural market for Ukraine. This marginal import from Ukraine is understandable, as South Africa is generally a farming powerhouse, boasting an agricultural trade surplus of US$ 6.2 billion in 2024.
Importantly, when one examines South Africa’s agricultural import basket of US$ 7.6 billion in 2024, the dominant products are wheat, palm oil, rice, poultry, and whiskies. (South Africa’s agricultural exports were valued at US$13.7 billion in 2024). This composition of South Africa’s agricultural imports partly explains why the country would not feature prominently on Ukraine’s agricultural import list.
Still, there is room for a deeper conversation about how South Africa could import more wheat from Ukraine, provided the quality and price are acceptable to private businesses.
South Africa imports about half of its annual wheat consumption, about 1,8 million tonnes. Ukraine is not a prominent key wheat supplier in South Africa. For example, in the 2024-25 marketing year, South Africa imported about 904,344 tonnes of wheat at the end of the first week of April 2025. The seasonal import forecast is 1,80 million tonnes. So far, the largest wheat suppliers by share are Russia (with 41% share), Lithuania (22%), Poland (10%), Latvia (9%), Australia (7%), Canada (6%) and Romania (5%).
Of course, these are private dealings, as the South African government correctly refrains from intervening in food markets. It is for this reason, then, that at the sidelines of government meetings, Ukrainian officials, amongst other things, may have to engage with South African businesses so that, post-war, they too can feature prominently on South Africa’s wheat import lists.
Among the other agricultural products South Africa imports, Ukraine may have limited room to supply, as these are not among its key export products.
From a South African perspective, the Ukrainian agricultural imports list includes a few products that South Africa also exports. For example, Ukraine spends about US$5.5 billion annually on agricultural products. These are mainly spirits, citrus, coffee, tobacco, cheese, wine, banana, chocolate, and palm oil, amongst other products.
The countries that primarily supply these products to Ukraine include Poland, Italy, Germany, Turkey, the Netherlands, China, Spain, France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Hungary.
While a major producer and exporter of citrus and wine, South Africa isn’t the primary supplier of these products to Ukraine. These are the key products that could be worth mentioning in the future.
Aside from these, limited business-to-business interactions in agriculture may be key, except to express support for Ukraine as it navigates a challenging time of protracted war.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Apr 19, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
Since last week, I have noticed posts on X, a social media platform, suggesting that South Africa has banned the import of agricultural products from Tanzania. These statements surprised me, so I contacted the authorities responsible for regulating the import of agricultural products into our country.
The message I received from them is that there is no such widespread ban on agricultural products from Tanzania to South Africa. The main issue, which is presented as a broad agricultural concern, appears to be the import of bananas from Tanzania into South Africa.
South Africa has not imported a notable volume of bananas from Tanzania in over two decades. To supplement domestic production, Mozambique is the major supplier of bananas to South Africa, accounting for 74% of the US$48 million in annual banana imports into the country. Trailing Mozambique is Eswatini, accounting for 19%. The Seychelles account for 4%, Zimbabwe accounts for 2%, and the remainder consists of small volumes from various countries in Southern Africa.
It is unclear whether Tanzania’s marginal non-participation in the South African bananas market is due to phytosanitary restrictions or insufficient marketing of the product in South Africa to establish a customer base. I suspect it may be the latter, as both countries can resolve phytosanitary issues with deliberate cooperation.
This banana dispute has prompted Tanzania to threaten to block South African products if South Africa doesn’t lift the restriction on their bananas. Now, consider the fact that I have just mentioned that Tanzanian bananas almost don’t feature in our import basket. Thus, I believe Mr Hussein Bashe, the Tanzanian Minister of Agriculture, overreacted.
Adopting the logic of banning South African products would create complications, as both countries are part of the Southern African Development Community Free Trade Area. Any ban on products from a particular country would need to have some scientific justification and be temporary. This is, again, the very issue that makes me doubt the notion that South Africa is unjustly limiting banana imports, which have been almost nonexistent (in any significant volume) in the South African market for over two decades.
Still, I must emphasise that Tanzania is not a significant player in South Africa’s agricultural sector. In the US$ 13.7 billion in South Africa’s agricultural exports, Tanzania accounted for approximately 1% (US$ 74.6 million).
Still, South Africa has an agricultural trade surplus against Tanzania. For example, in South Africa’s agricultural imports of US$7,6 billion in 2024, Tanzania accounted for 0,4% (or roughly US$28 million). This minimal participation by Tanzania is understandable, as South Africa imports products that are not produced in large volumes in the region. These include wheat, rice, palm oil, poultry, and whiskies from the world market, all of which are not primarily produced by the African region.
South Africa is Tanzania’s 18th largest agricultural market, accounting for 1.4% of its US$ 2.4 billion worth of farm exports in 2023. Thus, it makes sense to seek to promote its agricultural products and engage with South Africa’s Department of Agriculture on any scientific issues, rather than threatening to impose restrictions on South African agricultural exports.
Tanzania’s main agricultural exports to South Africa are tobacco, tea, nuts, coffee, and ginger, not bananas. Thus, initiating trade friction over a hold-up on a product that is not a significant export to a country may not be ideal.
Another factor contributing to Tanzania’s limited participation in the South African agricultural market is that South Africa is a net exporter of agricultural products, with exports reaching US$13.7 billion in 2024.
Beyond the Tanzania banana issue, South Africa’s current stance is to foster stronger regional agricultural trade and refrain from introducing restrictions.
South Africa also promotes collaboration in agriculture and the sharing of knowledge to enhance regional value chains. This is the same approach South Africa shared with Botswana when the country temporarily restricted the imports of South African vegetables and fruits.
Thus, I believe that the whole issue may result from inadequate communication and engagement rather than a deliberate attempt to restrict trade. Of course, serious phytosanitary barriers must be addressed before the products enter South Africa. Ultimately, banana wars in Southern Africa may be a fruitless endeavour.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Apr 19, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
In political economy, there is something called “flooding the zone”. Roughly explained, this is when there is a deluge of information that takes people’s attention away from what should be the priority. This is not helped by the fact that during crisis periods, there is the proliferation of “experts” with untested opinions.
We saw this snake-oil behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current environment has its fair share of instantaneous trade policy “expertise”. In South Africa’s agriculture, we are fortunately not under such an attack through the flood of information. Still, we must continuously be vigilant and reflect thoughtfully on risks affecting the sector.
In recent weeks, the focus has primarily been on trade matters and the U.S. tariffs, understandably so, because the U.S. is a valuable market for South Africa’s agriculture. The US reciprocal tariffs are imposed at a time when the citrus industry is at its export season; therefore, our focus on these issues should be paramount.
Equally, concerns about the sustainability of the Government of National Unity and the fiscal problems that dominate the domestic conversation are warranted as these place under sharp spotlight South Africa’s political futures and the plight of economic renewal.
Yet still, we must not allow other important domestic issues affecting the sector to be drowned out by political noise. One such area is the continuous effort to control animal diseases. South Africa has made enormous progress following challenging years of avian influenza, African swine fever, and foot and mouth disease.
However, we continue to learn about the foot and mouth disease outbreaks in parts of KwaZulu-Natal and some lingering cases in the Eastern Cape. This means animal health should remain a priority for South African agricultural authorities and organised agriculture.
Equally, while South Africa does not suffer from the rife avian influenza we are witnessing in the U.S. and parts of the UK, there should be increased work to prepare the sector for potential outbreaks. This would involve learning from the last outbreak and efficiencies in registering the vaccines that the poultry producers have been calling for.
Admittedly, we cannot know when and how the new outbreak will be. Still, ensuring that South Africa’s regulators are agile is key. The poultry industry and egg producers are key to the food security and vitality of some of South Africa’s small towns. Thus, we should observe the challenges of the U.S. with animal diseases and equally take note of the calls for agility in vaccine registration and move faster.
The poultry industry and livestock account for roughly half of South Africa’s farming economy. Thus, ensuring the efficient operation of this subsector is key to the success and growth of the South African farming economy. If South Africa succeeds in resolving and preparing for the animal disease challenges, the subsector will be on a better path in some of its operational conditions.
Last year, the resumption of various export markets also ensured that South Africa continues to build its exports of red meat and livestock products. To sustain this momentum, the continuous collaboration between the government and organised agriculture on animal health is vital. In addition to animal health matters, the South African authorities must focus on livestock theft, which remains a challenge in some communities and financially burdens farmers.
Overall, while we must focus on significant themes shaping the country and the global environment, the officials at various government departments and industry groups must not lose sight of the importance of the day-to-day operational matters that are key to the success of agriculture. In this case, animal health is one such aspect that requires consistent focus.
Written for and first appeared on Business Day.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Apr 14, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
Over the weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping correctly remarked that there are ‘No Winners’ in tariff wars. The full consequences of the unfolding tariff war are yet to be clear on a global growth scale, but they are certainly on the downside.
However, a few countries may emerge as winners from a sectoral perspective. Brazil and Argentina are evolving as the leading agricultural exporters to China, as U.S. farmers face higher retaliatory tariffs in China.
The Financial Times published an article this past weekend that explains what is unfolding in just these few months. It states that:
“Brazil’s beef sales to China climbed a third in the first quarter of 2025, compared with a year earlier, while Chinese imports of its poultry increased 19 per cent year on year in March, according to local trade associations. Meanwhile, foreign demand has seen Brazilian soybeans trading at a $1.15 premium to their U.S. counterparts on global markets, having sold at a 25-cent discount only in January.”
This is not new. China started shifting to Latin America after the first trade friction with the U.S. during President Trump’s first term. I have shown this chart several times (featured chart), which accurately illustrates what is happening with China’s agricultural imports.
We think more about China in agriculture because China is a dominant player in global trade. In 2023, China was a leading agricultural importer, accounting for 11% of global farm imports, totalling over US$200 billion.
The leading suppliers of agricultural products to China in 2023 were Brazil, the U.S., Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands, and Malaysia.
The U.S. position will likely decline further this year.
Reflecting on the current shifts in China’s agricultural imports and the dominance of Latin America has partly motivated us to argue that South Africa should also position itself among the key suppliers of farm products to China.
South Africa remains the only African country in China’s top 30 agricultural suppliers, ranked 28 in 2023. Still, South Africa remains a negligible player in the Chinese agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% (US$979 million) of China’s agricultural imports of US$218 billion in 2023.
Given this reality and China’s efforts to diversify its agricultural suppliers, it is key that the South African message in engagements with the Chinese authorities should be more firm and persuasive in promoting agricultural exports.
South Africa has an agricultural surplus yearly, exporting about half of its yearly production. In 2024, South Africa’s agricultural exports amounted to a record US$13.7 billion. Indeed, this is nowhere close to the amount of money China spends annually importing agricultural products from the world, a staggering US$218 billion.
South Africa is not currently deeply involved in China’s agriculture, among other things, because of the higher import tariffs and some phytosanitary constraints on various products.
With China focused on trade matters nowadays, South Africa must press them to open up the market and strengthen agricultural trade with our country. I think this should be a topic of conversation in engagements with Chinese authorities.
The Brazilian and Argentinian farmers cannot be the only winners in this challenging time; South Africa’s agriculture must be part of this global story.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Apr 6, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
At a time of heightened geoeconomic tensions, it is tempting to argue that countries, industries and businesses must align with particular interests or regions. For businesses and industries, the ideal path should be to remain neutral and continue to broaden business activity with a wider range of countries.
This is especially critical for South Africa’s agriculture. The sector is export-oriented, with exports reaching a record US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% year-on-year. The export markets and products are varied, with the African continent absorbing nearly half, while the EU, Middle and Asia, and the UK are also sizable markets. South Africa should not rest on this success but should maintain and deepen trade relations in regions where capacity remains.
The EU-South Africa agricultural trade has had a few frictions, mainly related to citrus. There is a growing sentiment amongst EU farmers that the region must manage its imports and protect the domestic producers. We don’t believe the EU policymakers would respond to farmers’ needs through tariffs or stronger policies discouraging imports. Still, there remains a chance that we could see occasional non-tariff barriers raised in sensitive products.
Critically, the EU market may not offer a lot of growth opportunities for South Africa in our view. Still, maintaining openness and friendship with the EU is vital and key to keeping the current access to agricultural exports that South Africa currently enjoys in this region.
The Middle East promises more potential for expansion, as it is not as saturated as what we observe in the EU, and there are no competing domestic farmer interests in this region. While a significant share of South Africa’s agricultural products are already exported to the Middle East, the presence of South African agriculture in this region is arguably still peripheral.
For example, according to Trade Map data, Saudi Arabia imports roughly US$25 billion of agricultural products a year. South Africa is one of the minor exporters, accounting for a mere 1% of the Saudi Arabian imports, and ranks 31st in the agricultural imports list.
Moreover, the UAE is a large agricultural market that imports roughly US$22 billion of agricultural products annually. South Africa has a 2% share and is the 16th largest supplier. Qatar imports about US$4 billion of agricultural products a year. But here, South Africa also plays a minor role, ranking 10th in the list of suppliers to Qatar and having a 2% market share in Qatar’s agricultural imports.
The countries that occupied a larger market share in these Middle Eastern countries were India, Brazil, Australia, the United States, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Denmark, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Argentina, Russia, France, and Turkey. Regarding the products, the Middle East primarily imports various meat products, grains, oilseeds, and fruits, amongst other products.
Given this peripheral participation and the possibility of increasing South Africa’s agricultural production in the coming years, there remains room for greater participation in the Middle-East market. There is a need for targeted promotion and marketing of products, along with government support, to nudge the Middle Eastern countries to address any remaining phytosanitary barriers and tariffs for South African products in these countries.
Equally, South Africa must work to retain the current access for agricultural products and other products in the US. However, a framework for a post-AGOA path must focus on a free trade agreement, and how we manage the higher tariffs imposed by the US government.
The African continent, which remains an anchor of South Africa’s agricultural exports, also requires continuous engagements to strengthen relations. This is ideal to avoid the friction we observed with the vegetable export ban in Botswana (now resolved and reopened) and Namibia (restrictions have not been lifted).
Overall, South Africa should take a long-term vision and appreciate that industry growth relies on relationships with varied countries. The government should lead these efforts collaboratively with businesses to open the export markets continuously. The growth, inclusiveness, and job creation all hinge on the sector’s ability to open as many export markets as possible.
Written for and first appeared in Business Day.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Apr 4, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
South Africa was not spared of the “Liberation Day” tariffs announced by US President Trump against various countries. South Africa will face tariffs between 10% and 30% in the US for all products. The specificity of by-products is not yet clear.
We know now that a baseline tariff of 10% will apply to imports from all countries. It remains unclear if there are differences in the remaining 20% (that makes up the rest of the 30%) duties levied against South Africa.
Under this environment, it is prudent to assume that South Africa will be out of the AGOA (the African Growth and Opportunity Act), which afforded us duty-free access to the US for a range of products, including the auto industry and agriculture.
We suspect there may be some differences product by product, but that will be clear as soon as the US authorities release more information. We know that the reciprocal tariffs will generally range from 10% to 60% (and to 30% in the case of South Africa). The exact levy will be based on what the White House Council of Economic Advisers thinks is the sum of tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US goods to a specific country.
Indeed, some products face higher tariffs in the South African market, but there are rebates through the International Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC) to assist any country that requires relief. South Africa is arguably amongst the countries with the lowest tariffs, which some local stakeholders have previously argued was a policy mistake at the onset of South Africa rejoining the global economy after 1994, following years of isolation.
The details of how the various domestic industries engage with this will also be precise in the coming days and weeks. But what I must stress regarding agriculture is that the US accounted for 4% of the total US$13,7 billion in exports in 2024. While this may seem small, it is significant for specific industries, particularly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices. Since the inception of AGOA, South Africa’s share of agricultural exports to the US has remained at similar levels.
With a 30% tariff now, while South African agricultural competitors such as Brazil, Chile, and Australia will face only 10% of the tariff, we will surely face a competitiveness problem in the US market. And yes, the tariff is a tax on the US consumer, not South Africa. However, it affects South African products’ penetration rate in these markets.
It may not be easy, and diverting products to other friendly markets will take time. Still, this should be the main preoccupation of the Department of Agriculture, assisted by the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition. The Middle East and Asia should be the primary focus for South Africa to build access, mainly in China, India, and Saudi Arabia.
The Middle East promises more potential for expansion, as it is not as saturated as what we observe in the EU, and there are no domestic competing farmer interests in this region. While a significant share of South Africa’s agricultural products are already exported to the Middle East, the presence of South African agriculture in this region is arguably still peripheral. For example, according to Trade Map data, Saudi Arabia imports roughly US$25 billion of agricultural products annually. South Africa is one of the most minor exporters, accounting for a mere 1% of the Saudi Arabian imports, and ranks 31st in the agricultural imports list.
Moreover, the UAE is a large agricultural market that imports roughly US$22 billion of agricultural products annually. South Africa has a 2% share and is the 16th largest supplier. Qatar imports about US$4 billion of agricultural products a year. But here, South Africa also plays a minor role, ranking 10th in the list of suppliers to Qatar and having a 2% market share in Qatar’s agricultural imports.
The countries that occupied a larger market share in these Middle Eastern countries were India, Brazil, Australia, the United States, Canada, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Denmark, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Argentina, Russia, France, and Turkey. Regarding the products, the Middle East primarily imports various meat products, grains, oilseeds, and fruits, amongst other products.
Given this peripheral participation and the possibility of increasing South Africa’s agricultural production in the coming years, there remains room for greater involvement in the Middle-East market. There is a need for targeted promotion and marketing of products, along with government support, to nudge the Middle Eastern countries to address any remaining phytosanitary barriers and tariffs for South African products in these countries.
The case for pushing more agricultural exports to China is clear in Asia. In 2023, China was a leading agricultural importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports, which totalled over US$200 billion, as the chart above shows. The US, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, France, and Japan trailed China.
The leading suppliers of agricultural products to China are Brazil, the US, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands, and Malaysia.
South Africa is the only African country in China’s top 30 agricultural suppliers, which ranked 28 in 2023. Still, South Africa remains a negligible player in the Chinese agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% (US$979 million) of China’s agricultural imports of US$218 billion in 2023.
China is already one of South Africa’s major agricultural markets for fruits, wine, red meat, nuts, maize, soybeans, and wool. However, there is room for more ambitious agricultural export efforts.
What the South African authorities should argue for in China is a need for lower import tariffs and the removal of phytosanitary constraints on various products. This would unlock the export potential into this market.
This diversification approach for South Africa’s agriculture is more urgent. Beyond the US tariffs, we will have a boom in harvesting various fruits in the coming years, which will require a market.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Mar 29, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
For a sector some have portrayed as being under siege, the trade figures for 2024 and the years before may surprise some. South Africa’s agricultural sector remains resilient, with no direct policy threats.
The challenges the sector faced in 2024 were environmental and animal health in nature, not political, as we see at the start of 2025 through statements of imaginary land grabs. We faced the mid-summer drought that weighed negatively on grain production and the Foot-and-Mouth Disease in cattle.
Still, the robust harvest of fruit, combined with the recovery in livestock and the better stocks of grains from the previous season, supported South African agricultural export growth in 2024. Agricultural exports reached a new record of US$13,7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year, according to data from Trade Map. This reflects both an increase in the volume of agricultural exports and higher prices of some products.
Moreover, while logistics infrastructure efficiency remains a primary concern for the farming sector, the ongoing collaboration between Transnet, private industry, and the various logistical organizations assists in ensuring the continuous flow of products, even if there are delays in specific periods.
The top exported products by value include citrus, grapes, maize, apples and pears, wine, nuts, fruit juices, sugar, berries, dates, pineapples, avocados, wool, apricots and peaches, ciders, and beef, amongst other products.
From a regional perspective, the African continent maintained the lion’s share of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2024, accounting for 44% of the total value. The products leading the exports list in the African continent were maize, maize meal, wheat, sugar, apples and pears, fruit juices, wine, soybean oil, sunflower oil, oilcake, and rice, amongst other products.
As a collective, Asia and the Middle East were the second-largest agricultural markets, accounting for 21% of the share of overall farm exports in 2024. The exports to this region were mainly citrus, nuts, apples and pears, wool, berries, sugar, beef, mutton, wool, wine, fruit juices, maize, apricots and peaches.
The EU was South Africa’s third-largest agricultural market, with a share of 19%. Citrus, grapes, wines, dates, avocados, pineapples, fruit juices, apples and pears, berries, apricots and cherries, nuts, and wool were amongst the top agricultural products South Africa exported to the EU in 2024.
The Americas region accounted for 6% of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2024. The main exported products include citrus, grapes, wine, fruit juices, and nuts. The rest of the world, including the United Kingdom, accounted for 10% of the exports.
Given ongoing concerns about South Africa’s participation in the AGOA (Africa Growth and Opportunity Act) trade arrangement, it is worth looking at South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US are only 4% (which is part of the 6% exports to the Americas region we mention above).
Still, this is not to minimize their value, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these agricultural exports to the US. These are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices. Since the start of AGOA, the percentage share of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the US has remained at these levels.
If South Africa were excluded from AGOA, the country would face an average import duty of about 3% (at the Most Favored Nations Rate). This underscores the fact that AGOA mainly offers price competitiveness to the products South Africa exports to the US. The 3% tariff would give an advantage to other competitors that access the US market duty-free (as South Africa currently does under the AGOA).
South Africa does not engage in one-way trade. The country imports various agricultural products. In 2024, South Africa’s agricultural imports amounted to US$7,6 billion, up by 8% year-on-year, according to data from Trade Map. The uptick resulted from a slightly higher value and volume of major products South Africa imports, like wheat, palm oil, rice, poultry and whiskies.
South Africa lacks favourable climatic conditions to grow rice and palm oil and thus relies on imports of these products. Regarding wheat, South Africa imports nearly half of the annual consumption.
In the Free State province, which used to be amongst the major wheat-growing regions of the country, production has declined notably over time because of the unfavourable weather conditions and profitability challenges of wheat relative to other crops. Meanwhile, imports are around 20% of the annual domestic consumption of poultry.
Subsequently, when we account for the exports and the imports, South Africa’s agriculture recorded a trade surplus of US$6,2 billion in 2023, down 2% from the previous year. The decline is primarily because of the jump in the import value.
In the current environment of heightened geopolitical tension, South Africa’s export-oriented agricultural sector must work to maintain the current export markets and broaden to new markets. The focus for both policymakers and agribusinesses and organized agriculture should be on the following aspects:
First, South Africa should maintain its focus on improving logistical efficiency. This entails investments in the port and rail infrastructure and improving roads in farming towns.
Second, South Africa must work hard to retain the existing markets in the EU, the African continent, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas. This is even more important in the current climate, where US policymakers are increasingly discussing raising tariffs.
Lastly, South Africa’s Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, and the Department of Agriculture should lead the way for export expansion in the current export markets and the search for new export markets. South Africa should expand market access to some key BRICS countries, such as China, India, Saudia Arabia, and Egypt.
The BRICS grouping should emphasize the need for member countries to lower the import tariffs and address artificial phytosanitary barriers hindering deeper trade within this grouping. Other strategic export markets for South Africa’s agricultural sector include South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, the Philippines and Bangladesh.
Ultimately, the organized agriculture groupings and the South African government share this ambition for export market expansion. Therefore, in the current fragmented world, more resources and marketing of agricultural products abroad must be used to achieve this work.
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