Over the weekend, Chinese President Xi Jinping correctly remarked that there are ‘No Winners’ in tariff wars. The full consequences of the unfolding tariff war are yet to be clear on a global growth scale, but they are certainly on the downside.
However, a few countries may emerge as winners from a sectoral perspective. Brazil and Argentina are evolving as the leading agricultural exporters to China, as U.S. farmers face higher retaliatory tariffs in China.
The Financial Times published an article this past weekend that explains what is unfolding in just these few months. It states that:
“Brazil’s beef sales to China climbed a third in the first quarter of 2025, compared with a year earlier, while Chinese imports of its poultry increased 19 per cent year on year in March, according to local trade associations. Meanwhile, foreign demand has seen Brazilian soybeans trading at a $1.15 premium to their U.S. counterparts on global markets, having sold at a 25-cent discount only in January.”
This is not new. China started shifting to Latin America after the first trade friction with the U.S. during President Trump’s first term. I have shown this chart several times (featured chart), which accurately illustrates what is happening with China’s agricultural imports.
We think more about China in agriculture because China is a dominant player in global trade. In 2023, China was a leading agricultural importer, accounting for 11% of global farm imports, totalling over US$200 billion.
The leading suppliers of agricultural products to China in 2023 were Brazil, the U.S., Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands, and Malaysia.
The U.S. position will likely decline further this year.
Reflecting on the current shifts in China’s agricultural imports and the dominance of Latin America has partly motivated us to argue that South Africa should also position itself among the key suppliers of farm products to China.
South Africa remains the only African country in China’s top 30 agricultural suppliers, ranked 28 in 2023. Still, South Africa remains a negligible player in the Chinese agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% (US$979 million) of China’s agricultural imports of US$218 billion in 2023.
Given this reality and China’s efforts to diversify its agricultural suppliers, it is key that the South African message in engagements with the Chinese authorities should be more firm and persuasive in promoting agricultural exports.
South Africa has an agricultural surplus yearly, exporting about half of its yearly production. In 2024, South Africa’s agricultural exports amounted to a record US$13.7 billion. Indeed, this is nowhere close to the amount of money China spends annually importing agricultural products from the world, a staggering US$218 billion.
South Africa is not currently deeply involved in China’s agriculture, among other things, because of the higher import tariffs and some phytosanitary constraints on various products.
With China focused on trade matters nowadays, South Africa must press them to open up the market and strengthen agricultural trade with our country. I think this should be a topic of conversation in engagements with Chinese authorities.
The Brazilian and Argentinian farmers cannot be the only winners in this challenging time; South Africa’s agriculture must be part of this global story.
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