by Wandile Sihlobo | Jul 28, 2025 | Agricultural Production
We continue to see an encouraging outlook for the 2025-26 global grains and oilseeds production. The latest organisation to release an upbeat forecast is the International Grains Council, which predicts a 2025-26 global grains and oilseeds harvest of 2.38 billion tonnes, a 3% increase from the previous season.
Indeed, the Southern Hemisphere regions will only start preparing the land for the new season in two months. It is only the Northern Hemisphere that has planted the crop.
Still, the optimistic view is partly based on a favourable weather outlook and expectations that farmers will plant in the typical areas or slightly more in all the key production areas. Encouragingly, these forecasts also suggest that the heatwaves in Europe likely did not cause significant damage to the crops as we had feared.
If we zoom in on the data for the major crops, starting with maize, the 2025-26 global harvest is forecast at 1.28 billion tonnes, up 4% from the previous season. We anticipate significant crop improvement in the U.S., Argentina, Ukraine, China, the EU, South Africa, and Russia. This is a result of both the expected expansion in area plantings in some countries and the expected higher yields.
Subsequently, the 2025-26 global maize stocks are forecast at 278 million tonnes, a 1% increase from the previous season. The reason we don’t see a sharp rise in stocks is due to the expected jump in maize usage for feed, food, and industrial purposes. The overall message we take from this picture is that maize prices may trend sideways, with a greater downward possibility in the coming months due to decent stock levels.
Moreover, the 2025-26 global wheat harvest is forecast at 808 million tonnes, a 1% increase from the previous season. The EU, Russia, Canada, Argentina, India, and the UK are among the key countries expected to contribute to the anticipated global uptick in wheat harvests. This is a welcome development, as we had worried that the unfavourable weather conditions in much of Europe would lead to a poor harvest.
The annual wheat consumption for food, feed, and industrial use is set to increase in the new year. Thus, the stocks may be down by 2% from the previous season, estimated at 265 million tonnes. This means that we may see wheat prices trading sideways, with possible mild upticks because of the tight supplies. With that said, it is worth mentioning that since the start of 2025, global wheat prices have traded sideways, under pressure in specific periods. Thus, we remain optimistic about a possible sideways movement, rather than sharp increases.
In the case of rice, the International Grains Council forecasts the 2025-26 harvest at 544 million tonnes, a 0.5% increase from the previous season. We anticipate a likely larger harvest in India, Vietnam, Pakistan, China, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Brazil. With consumption relatively stable, stocks are set to increase by 1% from the 2024-25 season to 185 million tonnes.
Similar to other crops, the 2025-26 global soybean harvest is expected to increase by 1% to 428 million tonnes. Brazil, Argentina, China, Paraguay, and Ukraine are among the key countries expected to support this improvement. Still, it is worth emphasising that the major producers, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay, are still busy with the 2024-25 production season. The 2025-26 season will only start in October. Therefore, these forecasts assume favourable weather conditions and widespread planting in the general area by farmers.
We will have better insights into the outlook when the season starts in the southern hemisphere. With the crush, food and feed set to increase, the stocks will likely come under pressure. The International Grains Council forecasts global soybean stocks for 2025-26 at 83 million tonnes, a 1% decrease from the previous season. Still, we doubt this would lead to a significant price increase; we anticipate a sideways movement in prices in the coming months.
The International Grains Council forecasts the 2025-26 global sunflower seed crop at 57 million tonnes, up by 9% from the previous season. This is based on an anticipated large harvest in Russia, Ukraine, the EU, Moldova, China, Turkey, South Africa, and the U.S., among others. This is likely to keep sunflower seed prices under pressure.
In essence, we are still early in the 2025-26 season, with the Southern Hemisphere region yet to begin with plantings. Still, the production prospects paint an encouraging picture for the path ahead, with ample harvests expected, which should keep global food price conditions at moderate levels for some time to come.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Jul 19, 2025 | Agricultural Production
Various factors, both positive and negative, continue to shape South Africa’s agricultural sector. Starting on a positive note, early signs suggest a high likelihood that the upcoming 2025-26 summer season may also present favourable rainfall conditions across South Africa.
Current forecasts indicate a neutral season, which would be generally favourable and with average rainfall. But the occurrence of La Niña rains also remains a possibility, which helps to ease the worries of a swing from a La Niña rainy season in 2024-25 to the opposite, an El Niño.
Summer grains and oilseeds
Admittedly, South African farmers will only start looking into these prospects with greater intensity in October, when the 2025-26 summer crop season begins. For now, the focus remains on the harvest activities of summer grains, oilseeds, and citrus, among other crops.
The summer crop harvest is progressing well and nearing completion for oilseeds. The feedback we are hearing is that the crop quality is not as disappointing as some may have feared, especially in the soybean regions. The maize harvest remains far behind its typical schedule due to delayed plantings and prolonged rains through April, which have somewhat slowed the crop’s maturity. Looking at the harvest coming into the commercial silos so far, we remain concerned about the quality of white maize, and less so in the yellow maize regions.
The quality issues are generally a cost factor for farmers. However, from a consumer perspective, there should be no concerns about food supply difficulties, as the country’s grain supplies remain intact. We see the agricultural output and the commodity prices as supportive of a moderating food price inflation path in the second half of 2025.
We also continue to closely monitor winter crop conditions in the Western Cape province, which has been receiving excellent rainfall. The major crops currently grown during this winter season are wheat, barley, canola, and oats. The Western Cape produces over two-thirds of the crops, and therefore is a focus province for South Africa’s winter crops.
The crop conditions are generally favourable in the province, although farmers incurred much higher costs than usual in some regions due to the snail challenge for canola. Still, they seem to be managing well at the moment. In other provinces, the winter crop is benefiting from higher dam levels following a prolonged summer rain season in 2025.
Fruit
For the citrus industry, the harvest is proceeding well, and the focus remains on export markets, particularly the U.S. market. August 1 will be the end of the suspension period for the U.S. reciprocal tariffs announced in early April, and it is not clear whether South Africa will continue to benefit from the 10% duties or if they will be readjusted back to the 30% duties we faced at the onset of the Liberation Day tariffs.
The South African government, alongside organised agricultural groups and other business groupings, have all been engaged with the matter and is pushing for better market access in the U.S., along with the formulation of a trade offer for a long-term trade agreement. These deliberations may take longer than desired, resulting in additional costs to businesses. The hope is for an extension of the current access while the discussions are underway. Many agricultural industries are at risk if the talks do not yield a favourable outcome. These include the table grapes, nuts, and wine, amongst others.
Export diversification
Indeed, the conversation about the potential diversification of export markets has been tabled by some. However, it has limitations in the near term, as businesses cannot switch to new regions overnight. There must be market development work.
Moreover, other regions, such as China and India, also continue to present various limitations to South African agricultural products, including higher tariffs and phytosanitary barriers, despite recent pronouncements by China regarding its willingness to reduce tariffs on products from Africa. This suggests that the South African authorities and businesses will have to continue engaging with the U.S., while also exploring new markets for future diversification. However, this approach cannot be viewed as a replacement for the U.S., but rather as an extension of it.
Logistics
The logistics at the ports have not been as challenging as they were in past years. The ongoing collaboration among Transnet, business, and government is helping to improve planning and operations, enabling better service to the sector. Still, we are far from achieving the desired efficiency, and improvements will require increased investments.
Biosecurity issues
Beyond the trade and harvest matters, biosecurity remains a challenge in South Africa. The foot-and-mouth disease continues to present increasing costs to businesses. The recent vaccination campaign is a crucial step towards resolving the current crisis, and it is being adequately managed by both the government and the private sector.
The next critical step is the revival of domestic capacity for vaccine manufacture. This step must ensure that the process no longer relies solely on the state but also includes select private sector labs that can help boost capacity. We are in a new era of increased animal and plant disease outbreaks, and South Africa must apply all its capacity to confront this challenge.
We also require agility in registering new vaccines, as disease outbreaks occur at a rapid pace. Another industry that will increasingly be in the spotlight is the poultry industry, particularly concerning avian flu outbreaks. South African authorities will need to assess a possible vaccine with speed, drawing on lessons learned from the past outbreak in 2023, which was costly to the industry and raised concerns about food security in the country.
Cautious optimism
Overall, the challenges are immense, but there are also bright spots in the sector. The 2024-25 harvest of various field crops, horticulture, and wine is looking promising, with ample harvests expected. The upcoming 2025-26 season also looks promising, potentially facilitating this growth. Still, there should be no complacency on both animal and plant diseases, as these remain the major threats to South Africa’s agricultural growth prospects and export potential.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Jul 19, 2025 | Agricultural Production
We are still grappling with the harvest of the 2024-25 maize season in South Africa, which is quite decent but presents some quality challenges because of the excessive rains. As of July 11, farmers have delivered around 56% of the expected commercial harvest of 14.8 million tonnes.
The quality is a significant challenge for white maize, but less so for yellow maize. For example, the white maize that we categorise as “WM1”, the first grade, accounts for 66% of the delivered maize compared with over 90% in past seasons. While yellow maize of the first grade, “YM1”, accounts for approximately 88% of the delivered maize. The prolonged rains, which continued through to the end of April, posed a challenge.
While this won’t change the view that we have decent supplies and keep food prices moderate in the coming months, it does mean we may see financial pressures on the maize farmers.
We are now at the tail end of this season, and the 2025-26 season is expected to begin in mid-October. We haven’t been thinking much about this season, as our minds have been mainly on the current crop and the harvest progress.
However, I was delighted to see that in its latest report, the International Grains Council is quite bullish about the upcoming season for South Africa, forecasting a maize crop of 16 million tonnes. These figures encompass both commercial and non-commercial maize. They base this, among other things, on the favourable weather outlook and the belief that farmers will plant in the typical area.
We are still in the early days and have yet to see how much area farmers will plant, as well as the impact of possible higher input costs. However, I found this uplifting forecast worth highlighting.
Of course, when the new season starts, we will closely monitor the developments and revisit these figures. The essential message they convey is that the path ahead for food price inflation in South Africa remains encouraging, with indications of continued moderation.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Jul 16, 2025 | Agricultural Production
I know our minds remain focused on the current 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds season, whose harvest is underway across the country, and is occurring much later than usual by more than a month due to the excessive and prolonged rainy season.
However, I noticed this morning an interesting piece by World Bank economists reflecting on the outlook for global agriculture, and one of the points they raise is their concern about input costs going into 2026. Amongst other things, the World Bank’s analysts argue that:
“Fertiliser prices continued to rise in the second quarter of 2025, with the World Bank’s fertiliser price index up 15 per cent since the start of the year. Triple superphosphate (TSP) and diammonium phosphate (DAP) saw particularly sharp gains, rising 43 and 23 per cent, respectively. The increase has been driven by strong demand, trade restrictions, and production shortfalls, especially in the case of urea. For the full year, prices are projected to register a modest increase over 2024, supported by firm demand, before stabilising in 2026.”
These recent increases were also felt in the winter crop-growing regions of South Africa, as the season began in May 2025. For the summer crop, the input costs were slightly lower.
Still, it remains true that the high fertiliser prices we complain about today are far below the elevated levels seen in 2022-23, following the Russia-Ukraine war, COVID-19-related supply chain challenges, and restrictions on China’s exports.
With that said, the current levels remain significantly above the pre-COVID-19 levels, indicating that farmers continue to face elevated input costs.
You see, South Africa imports roughly 80% of its annual fertiliser requirements, and therefore, these global fertiliser price dynamics matter significantly. Moreover, the major users of the imported fertiliser are field crop farmers, including those of grains, oilseeds, and sugarcane.
The fertiliser also accounts for quite a significant share of their input costs. Consider a grain farmer in the Free State province of South Africa; roughly 35% of their input costs are fertiliser, and they are exposed to all these global developments in the fertiliser market.
Our next summer crop season will not begin until October 2025, but farmers will start receiving all necessary inputs in the coming months. Hopefully, there won’t be any disruptive events in the global energy and fertiliser markets that may increase their input costs.
Another critical variable at this time is the domestic currency, which has remained relatively strong in recent months, potentially easing these input cost pressures somewhat.
Still, the key point emerging from the current data is that we may start the 2025-26 production season with slightly higher input costs than the previous one.
The comforting point about the upcoming 2025-26 season is that the weather conditions outlook remains encouraging. We may not have another La Nina rainy season, but the forecasts suggest that a regular season of favourable rains may be on our way. Still, it is too early to know for sure; we have about two more months to go before we turn our attention fully to the new season.
However, I thought it was essential for us to start considering the input costs for the upcoming season, which may be slightly higher than those of the last season.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Jul 7, 2025 | Agricultural Production
I suppose I should take a break from my rants about BRICS and look outside for productive work happening in rural South Africa currently. We are in a downturn period for several commodities, as it’s the winter season. But if you’re travelling across South Africa in this chilly weather, you will notice that in most regions, farmers and farmworkers are still hard at work harvesting maize. This is somewhat unusual as by July, most areas of the country would have completed the maize harvest.
The season started late due to delayed summer rains, and when it finally rained, it was excessive in some regions and lasted into April, an unusual occurrence. As a result, the maize crop and harvest are roughly a month behind their typical schedule.
When the South African Grain Information Services (SAGIS) released the producer deliveries data last week, it showed that on June 27, South African farmers delivered 1.4 tonnes of the new season maize to commercial silos that week. This was the ninth weekly delivery for the new season, bringing the overall maize deliveries so far to 5.8 million tonnes.
If you compare this total volume with the overall volume delivered during the same period in the previous season, the total volume is down 24% due to the season’s slow start. We are roughly a month behind schedule.
There is still a lot of work ahead. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is estimated at 14.8 million tonnes, a 15% increase year-on-year, primarily due to expected annual yield improvements.
We are closely monitoring the quality, and so far, we have noticed challenges with white maize, while the quality of yellow maize is far better. Still, we will have a better judgement when the majority of the crop is in the silos.
The upside remains that we are once again net exporters of maize. The expected harvest of 14.8 million is well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.0 million tonnes.
While the lower quality in some regions may present profitability issues for farmers, it doesn’t change the picture of sufficient grain supplies for the local market, and potentially moderating prices in the coming months for the grain component of the inflation basket.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Jun 29, 2025 | Agricultural Production
There are some glimpses of positivity that often arise from the agricultural data, which are worth highlighting. Indeed, these do not suggest that all is well with South Africa’s agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal disease challenges in cattle farming and the poultry industry.
However, if one is in horticulture or field crop production, the operating conditions are more favourable. The message I continue to receive from farmers of various fruits, vegetables, grains, and oilseeds, as well as other field crops, suggests a promising agricultural season. The yields are up from last year’s drought period.
For a moment, I was worried that the excessive rains throughout April would cause quality damage to some crops. At the start of the harvest season, particularly in some grains, that was indeed the observation of some farmers. But things seem to have changed quite significantly. I’ve heard that the quality of crops, especially soybeans, is not as bad as we anticipated, although there are indeed areas with challenges.
Nevertheless, what is also encouraging is seeing a continuous upward revision of the harvest. For example, on June 27, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) released its fifth production estimate for the 2024-25 season in South Africa, lifting the expected harvest.
While there are five more estimates to come in the following months, when we reach the fifth estimate, we generally have more confidence in the size of the crop, as well as its quality, as some areas would have delivered a sizable share of their crop to the silos.
The CEC raised South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds production by 3% from the May 2025 estimate to 18,43 million tonnes. This represents a 19% increase from the previous season.
A closer look at the data reveals that the monthly upward revisions were primarily in maize (+1%), soybeans (+14%), and dry beans (+4%). Meanwhile, the rest of the other crops were roughly unchanged from the previous month.
More specifically, South Africa’s maize harvest is now forecast at 14.78 million tonnes, which is 15% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season. Of these 14.78 million tonnes, about 7.65 million tonnes is white maize, and 7.13 million tonnes is yellow maize. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.65 million tonnes, representing a 43% year-over-year increase. The annual uptick is primarily due to improved yields resulting from favourable rainfall. A significant portion of the soybean crop has already been delivered to commercial silos, and the quality is generally encouraging. Importantly, this is the second-largest harvest on record, and it is not even final. The record harvest of 2,77 million tonnes was recorded in the 2022-23 production season. This ample harvest also means South Africa will remain a net exporter of soybeans and soybean products. We are far from the time when we were a net importer of soybean products for animal feed, mainly oilcake. We are now in a net exporter position.
Sunflower seeds are up 15% from the previous season and are estimated at 727,800 tonnes.
The groundnut harvest is estimated at 63,510 tonnes (up 22% y/y), sorghum production is estimated at 137,970 tonnes (up 41% y/y), and the dry beans harvest is at 74,299 tonnes (up 47%). The base effects and favourable agricultural conditions boosted the yields.
In essence, South Africa is experiencing a recovery season for its grain and oilseed production, although some areas may face quality challenges. We see the benefit of the solid harvest in generally softening commodity prices, which are now at lower levels than last year, boding well for the moderating food price inflation for the year. The benefits of these ample harvests may be more evident in the inflation data in the second half of the year.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Jun 26, 2025 | Agricultural Production
We continue to receive excellent rains in most regions of the Western Cape. I say excellent rains because I am looking at this from an agricultural perspective. From a household’s perspective, the rains have caused challenges in certain areas.
This is a winter crop season, and the Western Cape is a central producing province for South Africa, accounting for over two-thirds of the winter crop plantings.
By ‘winter crop,’ I primarily refer to wheat, barley, canola, and oats. The messages I have received from various people indicate that the crop conditions are favourable, and these rains will help boost the crop-growing conditions.
The South African farmers are optimistic about the 2025-26 winter crop production season. For example, the Crop Estimates Committee indicated at the end of April that farmers intend to plant the 2025-26 winter crop on 827,970 hectares, up 1% from the previous season. This comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats, and sweet lupines. A closer look at the major crops reveals some minor deviations, with all crop area plantings increasing, except for barley, which is declining.
The farmers intend to plant the 2025-26 wheat crop on 513,200 hectares, a 2% increase from the previous season. If we assume relatively favourable weather conditions, as we continue to see in the Western Cape, a central wheat-producing region, and a decent yield of 3.97 tonnes per hectare, which aligns with the five-year average, South Africa’s wheat harvest would be 2.04 million tonnes. This would be up 6% from the 2024-25 production season.
In the case of canola, farmers intend to plant 166,500 hectares, up 0.5% from the previous season. Similarly, if we apply a five-year average yield of 1.89 tonnes per hectare, South Africa could harvest 314,685 tonnes, representing a 9% increase from the previous season. Regarding oats, farmers intend to plant 34,520 hectares, representing an 11% increase from the 2024-25 season. Applying an average yield of 1.54 tonnes per hectare means the harvest could be 53,161 tonnes, representing a 24% increase.
Unlike other crops, farmers intend to reduce barley plantings by 8% to 93,050 hectares in the 2025-26 season. If we apply a five-year average yield of 3.58 tonnes per hectare to barley, we will have a harvest possibility of 333,119 tonnes, down 11% from the previous season.
Overall, it is still too early to tell where the winter crop harvest could be. So far, the focus has been on the weather, and in the central producing province, the conditions appear encouraging. In other provinces, where the crop is primarily irrigated, the dam levels are also at encouraging levels following favourable summer rains, which all bodes well for the winter crop season.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Jun 25, 2025 | Agricultural Production
At the end of last month, we knew that South Africa would have an excellent soybean harvest in terms of volumes. However, we had doubts about the quality in some areas due to the excessively wet weather conditions that persisted through to the end of April. We remain concerned about the quality of the crop in certain regions.
The Crop Estimate Committee placed South Africa’s 2024-25 soybean harvest estimate at 2,33 million tonnes, which is up 26% from the previous season. The annual uptick is primarily due to improved yields recovering from last year’s drought.
The area plantings are up slightly, and therefore do not constitute a significant boost to the estimate published by the Crop Estimate Committee.
But the latest producer deliveries data suggest that the actual soybean harvest may well have surpassed what the Crop Estimate Committee estimated. For example, on June 20, South Africa’s soybean producer deliveries were at 2,46 million tonnes. This represents a 33% increase from the 2023-24 production season. Importantly, this is the second-largest harvest on record, and it is not even final. The record harvest of 2,77 million tonnes was recorded in the 2022-23 production season.
On June 27, the Crop Estimate Committee will release its fifth production estimate for 2024-25 summer crops. It is in this release that the Committee will adjust its estimate of 2.33 million tonnes, released on May 27, to reflect the current deliveries or a slightly higher amount.
Importantly, this also means South Africa will remain a net exporter of soybeans and soybean products. We are far from the time when we were a net importer of soybean products for animal feed, mainly oilcake. We are now in a net exporter position.
The market has responded positively to these developments. For example, on June 24, the soybean spot price traded at R7,259 per tonne, down 16% year-on-year. The contract prices for September and December are also down roughly 15% from a year ago. This reflects both the large domestic harvest and ample global supplies.
Overall, this is excellent news for the South African livestock and poultry industries that use soybeans as a key feed product.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
