At the end of August, I pondered the possibility of a canola boom in South Africa for the 2025-26 season. I based my view on the area planting and weather prospects, which were encouraging compared to the 2024-25 season.
However, as many people in South Africa’s canola-growing province, the Western Cape, would agree, the start of the 2025-26 season presented a challenge for some regions of the province. We have seen reports of snail infestations in some areas, forcing farmers to replant, a process that increases production costs.
At the end of September 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee released its second production forecast for canola, indicating a possible harvest of 311,640 tonnes, a 3% decrease from the August 2025 estimate. Notably, this remains 7% higher than the previous season. The annual gains are primarily due to the expansion in area plantings.
I must say, this is not far off from our initial estimate of a 311,661-tonne harvest of canola, which was an 8% increase from the 2024-25 season. Here, we applied a five-year average yield of 1.89 tonnes per hectare to the area of 164,900 hectares, which provided a harvest estimate of 311,661 tonnes.
Still, the expected crop of 311,640 tonnes is a fresh record, reinforcing South Africa’s position as a relatively new exporter of canola products. South Africa is now a net exporter of canola, having recently exported to countries such as Germany and Belgium.
Canola is a relatively new crop in South Africa, but it remains a success story. Since South African farmers began planting the crop commercially on 17,000 hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 164,900 hectares by the 2025-26 season.
Over the years, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings has been a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake.
There has been a shift from traditional winter wheat and barley growing areas to canola due to firm demand and price competitiveness. Canola is a winter crop, primarily planted in the Western Cape, a region with winter rainfall in South Africa.
Therefore, while the start of the season has been costly for farmers, and the harvest estimate has been lowered from the initial, bigger harvest, South Africa could still have a record harvest of 311,640 tonnes of canola. This is arguably still a canola boom in terms of a harvest, but it’s a whole different discussion in terms of profitability for farmers.
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It appears that Zimbabwe has taken the right step and eased the ban on maize imports. I was reviewing South Africa’s maize exports for the week of 26 September 2025, and Zimbabwe was listed as an importer. During that week, South Africa exported 27,624 tonnes of maize, with 47% (12,858 tonnes) of it being exported to Zimbabwe.
South Africa’s 2025-26 maize exports so far stand at 650 897 tonnes, which is far below the seasonal export forecast of 2.2 million tonnes.
Ordinarily, Zimbabwe is one of South Africa’s large maize markets, in addition to countries in the Far East and some African countries. However, last month, Zimbabwe issued a notice temporarily banning the import of maize due to improved domestic supplies.
Our view was that the country didn’t have sufficient maize to meet its annual demand and would need to import maize. We based our view on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), indicating that Zimbabwe’s maize production is approximately 1.3 million tonnes. Given the annual consumption of 2.0 million tonnes, they naturally need about 700,000 tonnes to fulfil their needs.
There was also growing evidence that the supply is constrained. Some milling firms are already facing challenges due to the maize shortage.
Witnessing South Africa’s maize exports to Zimbabwe brings relief. The exports mean that the millers who faced maize shortages a few weeks ago may now have sufficient supplies. This also means that consumers may again have access to better-priced global maize supplies.
Still, we will have to watch this issue closely as I haven’t seen any official communication from the country.
After the country announced its ban, we discussed the details of the issue in our AgriView episode, which is available to watch here.
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When the farming sector is in better condition, the interlinked industries such as machinery suppliers also benefit. We are ending this particular week on a positive note regarding the trend in South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales.
In fact, sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025 and are likely to continue at this encouraging pace throughout the year. More specifically, the tractor sales have increased for the past nine consecutive months, while combine harvester sales have only cooled in the last four months, having started on a solid momentum.
The recent data for September 2025 also paints a mixed picture. For example, the tractor sales are up 15% y/y, with 758 units sold.
However, the combine harvester sales were down 53%, with eight units sold. The soft sales in combine harvester sales are not a significant concern, given the higher volume of sales in the past few months. Importantly, the cumulative sales of combine harvesters for the first eight months of 2025 are up 17% from the corresponding period in 2024, with 180 units sold.
The increase in agricultural machinery sales primarily reflects the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 field crop, horticulture, and wine grape harvest, supported by the favourable weather conditions. It also signals optimism about the season ahead.
Considering the 2024-25 season, which we are ending, the production figures look excellent across the board. For example, (1) the Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds harvest at 19.94 million tonnes, up 28% y/y. (2) South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% y/y to 2.09 million tonnes. (3) South Africa’s wine grape harvest was 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from 2024. (4) The South African Table Grape Industry has also posted some upbeat production figures, and there are encouraging production data from citrus, various fruits, and vegetables.
In essence, we expect South Africa’s agricultural machinery to remain strong this year. In addition to the better agricultural production conditions, the interest rates have eased somewhat from last year’s levels. Also worth noting is that some farmers may continue with machinery replacement in the coming months, which will ultimately support sales.
Most notably, there is also optimism about the upcoming 2025-26 season, which promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains.
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On September 30, we received the eighth production estimate for South Africa’s 2024-25 season. There are two more estimates to follow for the season, but they are unlikely to change the current picture of abundance.
The Crop Estimates Committee lifted South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimate by 2% from the August 2025 estimate to an expected 19.94 million tonnes (a 28% year-on-year increase).
This estimate comprises maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts (peanuts), sorghum, and dry beans. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings. The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest.
This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.
If I were to highlight one crop to underscore my point about food inflation, it would be maize. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is now forecast at 16.12 million tonnes, which is 26% higher than the 2023-24 season’s crop.
Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
In essence, South Africa has an ample supply of summer grains and oilseeds, and we will see the benefits of the harvest in the softening of commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.
In a few weeks, the focus will shift to the 2025-26 season, which also promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains.
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Yesterday, September 29, we had the opportunity to share our views and listen to representatives of agribusinesses from the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.
However, one aspect that got many people in the room engaged was the ongoing challenge of the foot-and-mouth disease among dairy producers in the province.
Representatives from various banks commented on the cost burden faced by some of their clients, and dairy farmers’ representatives painted a picture based on their firsthand observations of the challenges.
This was a valuable input because many of us in central South Africa and the northern regions typically think of foot-and-mouth disease from the perspective of beef producers; rarely do we consider its cost burden on dairy farmers as well.
Indeed, for beef producers, the central issue is the temporary closure of various export markets, while farmers must continue to feed the cattle, thereby significantly increasing costs.
One question that also arose was about the reasons South Africa is not on full-scale vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease, especially in regions such as KwaZulu-Natal that are prone to outbreaks.
We also learned more about the constraints on vaccination supplies in certain areas.
These aren’t new issues, and we have discussed them at length in this letter; however, hearing about the picture of KwaZulu-Natal from the affected individuals was illuminating.
What one takes away from the conversation is that South Africa remains at a critical point regarding the control of foot-and-mouth disease and various animal diseases. This underscores our continuous emphasis on the need to strengthen the country’s biosecurity.
Still, the partnership with the private sector must be the path forward. We must ensure that entities capable of producing critical vaccines for our livestock industry receive the necessary government support to partner and roll out the measures needed to support the sector. We no longer need just one centre of manufacturing, but instead multiple centres where capabilities exist. Thereafter, also nudge the Department of Public Works and Infrastructure to assist with fencing to ensure the strict control of animal movement in the country.
The livestock industry is a pillar of South Africa’s farming economy, accounting for approximately half of the country’s farming fortunes. Therefore, ensuring its resilience is vital, and that starts with addressing foot-and-mouth disease and other diseases head-on.
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We are at the Kwa-Shukela (South African Sugar Association Headquarters) in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, today, engaging with various agribusinesses. One thing noticeable on our way down here is the excellent rainfall in different regions of Gauteng and through to KwaZulu-Natal. I am highlighting the rains because we will soon begin with the 2025-26 production season for field crops and horticulture. The early rains help improve soil moisture, ahead of the start of the summer crop season in mid-October 2025.
Importantly, we have observed general optimism about the 2025-26 season amongst farmers. The weather outlook is positive, with a likelihood of more La Niña-induced summer rains. Tractor sales have also remained encouraging, indicating that farmers are preparing for a busy season ahead. The sentiment, as illustrated in the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index, has also been relatively positive.
So, all else being equal, we are looking to have another great season. The primary worry, of course, remains the animal diseases which continue to put pressure on our livestock industry.
As I am typing this from the Headquarters of the South African Sugar Association, I must note that the industry has had a reasonably good year in terms of production. The South African sugar production for the 2024-25 season is forecast to increase by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes, driven by favourable weather conditions and sufficient water availability for irrigation. Given the expected better weather conditions in the 2025-26 season, one can anticipate a better harvest for the sugar industry in the next season as well.
And yes, the picture ahead has nothing to do with this post. I took it inside the building at Kwa-Shukela. I liked all these SADC flags, and SA leading the way. We must continue to lead the region.
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He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
