The 2022/2023 global grains and oilseeds season presents an encouraging picture of supplies. These forecasts will probably be sufficient to provide relief from the levels the grains and oilseeds prices were at in the weeks after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.
The robust tractor sales since the start of the year, prospects of yet another La Niña albeit weaker than last season, and the relatively higher commodity prices point to possibilities of decent area plantings in the 2022/23 summer crop season.
With Kenya struggling to meet its annual maize needs, using new technologies, GM seeds and other means should be an avenue to boost production in the future.
South Africa’s consumer food price inflation accelerated further to 12,3% y/y in September 2022 from 11,5% y/y in the previous month. The products behind this monthly increase were mainly “bread and cereals”, “meat”, “milk, eggs and cheese”, and “vegetables”.
The higher tractor sales, attractive prices and favourable weather forecasts suggest South Africa could have another favourable agricultural season in 2022/23.
One major challenge that emerged this past week that directly impacts South Africa’s agriculture is labour-related tensions at Transnet. The logistics utility declared a force majeure at its port operations last week, citing an illegal strike.
South Africa is expected to remain comfortable regarding wheat supplies and import activity during the 2022/23 marketing year.