by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 30, 2025 | Agricultural Production
On September 30, we received the eighth production estimate for South Africa’s 2024-25 season. There are two more estimates to follow for the season, but they are unlikely to change the current picture of abundance.
The Crop Estimates Committee lifted South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimate by 2% from the August 2025 estimate to an expected 19.94 million tonnes (a 28% year-on-year increase).
This estimate comprises maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts (peanuts), sorghum, and dry beans. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings. The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest.
This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.
If I were to highlight one crop to underscore my point about food inflation, it would be maize. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is now forecast at 16.12 million tonnes, which is 26% higher than the 2023-24 season’s crop.
Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
In essence, South Africa has an ample supply of summer grains and oilseeds, and we will see the benefits of the harvest in the softening of commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.
In a few weeks, the focus will shift to the 2025-26 season, which also promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 29, 2025 | Agricultural Environment and Natural Resource
Yesterday, September 29, we had the opportunity to share our views and listen to representatives of agribusinesses from the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.
The general sentiment from folks in the region was that the agricultural conditions are favourable, which is a picture we painted from a national perspective in our previous letter.
However, one aspect that got many people in the room engaged was the ongoing challenge of the foot-and-mouth disease among dairy producers in the province.
Representatives from various banks commented on the cost burden faced by some of their clients, and dairy farmers’ representatives painted a picture based on their firsthand observations of the challenges.
This was a valuable input because many of us in central South Africa and the northern regions typically think of foot-and-mouth disease from the perspective of beef producers; rarely do we consider its cost burden on dairy farmers as well.
Indeed, for beef producers, the central issue is the temporary closure of various export markets, while farmers must continue to feed the cattle, thereby significantly increasing costs.
One question that also arose was about the reasons South Africa is not on full-scale vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease, especially in regions such as KwaZulu-Natal that are prone to outbreaks.
We also learned more about the constraints on vaccination supplies in certain areas.
These aren’t new issues, and we have discussed them at length in this letter; however, hearing about the picture of KwaZulu-Natal from the affected individuals was illuminating.
What one takes away from the conversation is that South Africa remains at a critical point regarding the control of foot-and-mouth disease and various animal diseases. This underscores our continuous emphasis on the need to strengthen the country’s biosecurity.
We need not only to ease regulations for importing and registering the various products farmers require, but also to increase investment in vaccine manufacturing. We all know of the difficulties at the Agricultural Research Council and the Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP), a state-owned vaccine manufacturer. The work to revive these institutions is underway.
Still, the partnership with the private sector must be the path forward. We must ensure that entities capable of producing critical vaccines for our livestock industry receive the necessary government support to partner and roll out the measures needed to support the sector. We no longer need just one centre of manufacturing, but instead multiple centres where capabilities exist. Thereafter, also nudge the Department of Public Works and Infrastructure to assist with fencing to ensure the strict control of animal movement in the country.
The livestock industry is a pillar of South Africa’s farming economy, accounting for approximately half of the country’s farming fortunes. Therefore, ensuring its resilience is vital, and that starts with addressing foot-and-mouth disease and other diseases head-on.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 29, 2025 | Agricultural Production
We are at the Kwa-Shukela (South African Sugar Association Headquarters) in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, today, engaging with various agribusinesses. One thing noticeable on our way down here is the excellent rainfall in different regions of Gauteng and through to KwaZulu-Natal. I am highlighting the rains because we will soon begin with the 2025-26 production season for field crops and horticulture. The early rains help improve soil moisture, ahead of the start of the summer crop season in mid-October 2025.
Importantly, we have observed general optimism about the 2025-26 season amongst farmers. The weather outlook is positive, with a likelihood of more La Niña-induced summer rains. Tractor sales have also remained encouraging, indicating that farmers are preparing for a busy season ahead. The sentiment, as illustrated in the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index, has also been relatively positive.
So, all else being equal, we are looking to have another great season. The primary worry, of course, remains the animal diseases which continue to put pressure on our livestock industry.
As I am typing this from the Headquarters of the South African Sugar Association, I must note that the industry has had a reasonably good year in terms of production. The South African sugar production for the 2024-25 season is forecast to increase by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes, driven by favourable weather conditions and sufficient water availability for irrigation. Given the expected better weather conditions in the 2025-26 season, one can anticipate a better harvest for the sugar industry in the next season as well.
And yes, the picture ahead has nothing to do with this post. I took it inside the building at Kwa-Shukela. I liked all these SADC flags, and SA leading the way. We must continue to lead the region.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 28, 2025 | Africa Focus
One of the countries in the East African region that I haven’t written about extensively, but that plays a crucial role in agricultural markets, is Kenya. The country is typically one of the key importers of staple grains, and the current season is no exception, although the harvest is much better.
Similar to the improvement in maize production witnessed in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and other countries in the Southern African region, Kenya’s 2024-25 maize crop has also shown signs of recovery.
The latest estimate by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) places the country’s harvest at 4.4 million tonnes. This is up 15% from the previous season due to both the expansion in area plantings and improved yields.
Consequently, imports are expected to decline by 17% to 250,000 tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year (this corresponds with the 2024-25 production season). The typical maize suppliers to Kenya in times of need include Tanzania and Uganda. It is likely that when domestic supplies have lessened, Kenya will still rely on these countries to supplement its domestic supplies.
South African maize exporters are unlikely to participate in the Kenyan market due to the country’s reduced annual maize needs and its long-standing ban on imports of genetically modified crops.
Over 80% of South Africa’s maize is genetically modified, which is typically used as a non-tariff barrier by various African countries. Still, South Africa’s maize exports are likely to focus on the neighbouring SACU countries, including Zimbabwe, and the Far East markets in the coming months. The East African region is unlikely to be a primary focus for many South African maize exporters.
In essence, the recovery in Kenya’s maize production, along with reduced imports, also implies that domestic food security conditions will likely improve this year compared to previous years of drought, during which consumers faced higher staple grain prices. Still, the country will remain a net importer of maize.
The outlook for 2026 will largely depend on the upcoming season. So far, the weather prospects look encouraging for another better season for Kenya.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 28, 2025 | Agricultural Production
I have long stated that 2025 will likely be a period of uneven recovery in the South African agriculture. From the high-frequency data, we are starting to see mixed fortunes. There is a robust recovery in field crops, vegetables and fruits, thanks to good rains, but the livestock industry continues to struggle with animal diseases.
A few weeks ago, Statistics South Africa released South Africa’s GDP for the second quarter, and the agricultural figures, to an extent, mirrored this challenge. The country’s agricultural gross value added expanded by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. This follows the 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year. The expansion was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture subsectors (vegetables and fruits).
As close observers of the sector are aware, quarterly data tend to be somewhat volatile, influenced by harvest times, crop deliveries, and other factors. It is particularly such issues that the second-quarter growth figure was much softer compared to the start of the year.
We experienced a delay in our summer grain harvest, with more momentum occurring at the start of the third quarter than is typically seen in the second quarter. Indeed, we have ample summer grain and oilseeds, estimated at 19.55 million tonnes (up 26% year-on-year). However, the season was late by roughly a month and a half due to the excessively prolonged summer rains, among other factors.
We have also continued to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease and a few cases of avian influenza, particularly in the second quarter. It was at the end of the second quarter that the foot-and-mouth disease vaccines arrived in South Africa for the start of the vaccination campaign.
However, not all crops were late. The citrus harvest season started in the second quarter, and we have an ample harvest. Farmers moved quickly to take advantage of the tariff pause window in the U.S., which allows for faster harvesting and contributes to the general upside in second-quarter performance. However, it is much softer than at the start of the year.
Also worth noting is that the sector’s sentiment remains optimistic, although it has softened in recent years. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell for a second consecutive quarter by 2 points to 63 in the third quarter of 2025. Despite the slight decline, the current level of the ACI implies that South African agribusinesses remain optimistic about business conditions in the country.
With all these factors considered, the critical point is that we remain convinced that 2025 will likely be a recovery period for South Africa’s agriculture. However, as we have communicated on various occasions, the recovery will be uneven.
The livestock industry continues to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease. Meanwhile, on the upside, the field crops, mainly grains, oilseeds, and sugarcane, are all expected to show a fantastic recovery from last season. We also have an excellent harvest of fruits and vegetables.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 24, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
Earlier this week, at the South Africa–China Trade and Investment Promotion Conference in Johannesburg, China’s Ambassador to South Africa, Mr Wu Peng, stated, among other things, that:
“In recent years, China has steadily increased imports from South Africa. Take agriculture as an example: today, as avocados and dairy products have gained market access to China, 68 categories of South African agri-food products can be exported to China. 90% of South Africa’s pecans and half of its macadamias are sold to China. These products have enriched the food baskets of Chinese consumers, and more importantly, increased the incomes of South African farmers and exporters.”
I want to add that while we appreciate this momentum and want to see a deeper integration of agricultural products into China, there are still some constraints. For example, many of the products that Mr Wu Peng mentioned still face various levels of tariffs. Consider our macadamia nuts; they face a 12% tariff in China. In the case of wine, the industry faces tariffs ranging from 14% to 20% (depending on whether the wine is bottled or sold in bulk).
Still, I say this not to discourage the trade conversation with China, but to highlight that there remain essential hindrances that both our countries must work on. We face these tariffs because we don’t have a formal trade agreement. Such an agreement would involve various trade-offs, with implications for other sectors of the South African economy; therefore, policymakers will need to be cognizant of these when engaging with China.
Still, the Chinese market remains vital for the growth of our agricultural sector, and it is the second-largest market in the world, accounting for roughly 11% of global agricultural imports in 2023, valued at US$218 billion. The leading suppliers of farm products to China are Brazil, the U.S., Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands, and Malaysia.
South Africa remains a negligible player in the Chinese agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% (US$979 million) of China’s agricultural imports of US$218 billion in 2023. These exports include a variety of fruits, wine, red meat, nuts, maize, soybeans, and wool. Some of these products are subject to various levels of tariffs.
Our goal is to achieve greater access to more fruits, grains, wine, and beef at lower tariff levels. There is room for more ambitious agricultural export efforts.
China’s offer to remove tariffs on various products from the African continent remains a key consideration in these conversations. However, any South African policymaker must remember that our economy is diverse. While I generally write about agriculture here, when engaging with China broadly, one must consider the implications for other sectors of our economy in any conversation involving trade agreements with countries such as China.
I raise this because China, like other countries globally, will eventually look to the world to increase its exports as it encounters friction in the U.S. market. Such diversification efforts may involve the African continent, which, for now, is starting from a generous path of extending zero-tariff access. It is possible that, in the long run, reciprocity will be China’s request, which is a fair point in terms of trade; it cannot be a one-way approach.
If such a possibility exists, then each country will need to approach China’s offer of zero tariffs with a long-term mindset and consideration for other sectors of the economy. In the South African context, while we want agriculture to have deeper access in China, this is one matter we must keep in mind, and possibly an issue our policymakers are contemplating. Balancing the tradeoffs will be tricky.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 23, 2025 | Agricultural Production
It is encouraging to read in the Business Day, September 23 issue, about the efforts of the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) to advance its cannabis and hemp research, and importantly, the seed breeding of this plant. Globally, the mood is somewhat downbeat on cannabis, but that is no reason to change our focus in South Africa. There are cycles on these things.
The ARC’s previous work on this plan, along with its continuous effort, is essential. For some time, I have been troubled that we talk more about cannabis and hemp in SA, but move very slowly on the legislative aspect that enables the proper cultivation and development of this plant. We have been slow in providing a new and clear regulatory path for this plant, and the licensing price has been somewhat prohibitive for some people.
When we finally progress with research, regulations and a clear policy framework for hemp and cannabis, I still believe that the plant could be a catalyst for revitalising rural communities. It could also create opportunities for cannatourism, particularly in rural areas of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Limpopo. Of course, life won’t drastically change because of this plant, but it will bring some value.
As many countries are focused on this plant, we need to consider ways to distinguish ourselves in South Africa. It may well be that South Africa’s competitive advantage could be built on the back of a transparent and predictable regulatory framework, an open investment regime, robust research and development support, knowledge networks that bring together university researchers, centres of excellence, and other industry players, a product quality and standards authority, and a low-cost licensing regime.
Importantly, we need to consider practical ways to ensure that production and value chains don’t mainly develop in areas that have always been the leading agricultural zones and urban areas with better access to investment.
The communities of the Mpondoland region of the Eastern Cape have been growing this plant in the shadows of the law for many years and should benefit from its liberalisation. But does the government have a clear plan for mobilising investment and value chain development in these regions?
Perhaps the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Limpopo provincial agricultural departments should lead and lobby their national counterparts to refine and craft regulations that encourage investment in these provinces.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
