South Africa’s agricultural exports have been superb so far in 2025. The large volumes of production for various products, combined with improvements at the ports, have led to encouraging export activity.
For example, after solid export activity in the first quarter of the year, South Africa’s agricultural exports totalled US$3.71 billion in Q2, up 10% from the same period a year ago. This is again a function of both higher volumes of various product exports and better commodity prices.
The products that dominated the exports list in the second quarter of the year were mainly citrus, apples and pears, maize, wine, nuts, fruit juices, dates, pineapples, avocados, grapes, and wool, amongst other products.
While there remains a need for further improvement in port efficiency, significant progress has been made compared to recent years. Agricultural export activity in the second quarter experienced less friction than it had in the recent past.
This encouraging export activity is likely to have continued in the third quarter and the last quarter of this year.
I was reminded of this notable progress yesterday by a note from Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA).
He stated that:
“In the 2025 export season, Southern African citrus growers packed 203.4 million 15kg cartons for delivery to global markets. This represents a significant 19% increase from the original estimate in April, which was 171.2 million cartons. It represents a 22% increase from the packed-for-export figures in 2024. Driving the growth is a combination of favourable weather conditions in the growing regions and the many young trees that came into fruit this season.”
He further added that:
“Furthermore, unforeseen factors that contributed to the record-breaking performance include the exceptional demand in overseas markets for processing-grade juicing oranges and juicing lemons. Also, the early end to Northern hemisphere supply, which drove strong demand and extended our supply window by adding important sales weeks at the beginning of the South African citrus season.”
I was also encouraged to see the CGA highlighting the improvement in logistics, stating that:
“Improved logistics efficiency, especially port efficiency, was achieved by Transnet, largely through investments in new equipment and the introduction of employee incentives linked to productivity. There was a high level of effective cooperation by all logistics players, including shipping lines, resulting in a productive logistics eco-system.”
In an environment where trade friction and fears of slowing exports persist as a constant concern, such activity is encouraging. We can expect to receive reports of similar activity in other fruits and commodities in the coming months.
However, all this should not divert our attention from the core issue of expanding export markets. We must continue with such efforts.
South Africa’s export-oriented agricultural sector must work to maintain its current export markets and expand into new ones. The focus for both policymakers and agribusinesses and organized agriculture should be on the following aspects:
First, South Africa should maintain its focus on improving logistical efficiency. This entails investments in port and rail infrastructure, as well as improving roads in farming towns.
Second, South Africa must work diligently to maintain its existing markets in the EU, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas.
Lastly, the South African Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, and the Department of Agriculture should lead the way in expanding exports to current markets and exploring new ones. South Africa should expand market access to key BRICS countries, including China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The emphasis on the BRICS grouping should be on the need to lower import tariffs and address artificial phytosanitary barriers that hinder deeper trade within this grouping. The discussion in BRICS should move beyond the general rhetoric of intentions to meaningful trade arrangements.
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If one had any doubts about South African farmers’ optimism about the 2025-26 summer crop planting intentions, the robust tractor sales should provide additional comfort.
The farmers intend to plant 4.1 million hectares, up by 1% from the 20242-5 season. However, these are still early days, and many factors could impact the plantings.
Still, the fact that the weather outlook is positive, with La Niña rain prospects, and the farmers’ continuous effort to buy tractors, suggests that we may see these plantings materialise.
The data recently released by the South African Agricultural Machinery Association shows that tractor sales increased by 12% year-over-year (y/y) in October 2025, with 857 units sold.
The increase in agricultural machinery sales primarily reflects improved financial gains from the 2024-25 agricultural season, particularly in field crops, horticulture, and wine grape harvests, which were supported mainly by favourable weather conditions.
Remember, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds are at 20.08 million tonnes (up 30% year-on-year). This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
The various fruits and vegetables also showed decent harvests. For example, South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% y/y to 2.09 million tonnes. Additionally, South Africa’s wine grape harvest was 1.244 million tonnes, representing an 11% increase from the previous year.
Importantly, the strong tractor sales signal farmers’ optimism about the 2025-26 agricultural season, which has recently started.
In the case of summer grains and oilseeds, this is likely to be another favourable season, as there are prospects of La Niña rains, which should support production conditions across various subsectors of agriculture (not just grains and oilseeds that I highlighted).
So, when one sees news about the robust tractor sales, the key message is that we are in another favourable agricultural season, and the sales are a key indicator of such optimism.
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We are beginning to see the benefits of the recent rains through improvements in soil moisture across the summer crop-growing regions of South Africa.
The rains from the last week of October to the first week of this month, although patchy, have brought improvement to the North West, Gauteng, Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, southern Mpumalanga, and the northern regions of the Eastern Cape. These are generally agricultural regions, and the improvement in soil moisture will support crop germination in the early-planted regions, as well as in the areas that are yet to be tilled.
The dryness in parts of the Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo is not a significant worry. We remain convinced that the country will receive favourable rainfall through the summer season. While we generally highlight summer grains and oilseeds in some of our comments, the rains are beneficial to all agricultural activity.
We highlight the summer grains and oilseeds, as they are currently at the planting stage. South African farmers intend to plan 4.5 million hectares of land for the 2025-26 production season, a 1% increase from the previous season.
Suppose the weather conditions remain favourable, as we are experiencing during the La Niña phenomenon. In that case, we can expect another decent performance of South Africa’s farming economy in 2026, with continued moderation of food prices.
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October 16th marks World Food Day, a celebration of the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation in 1945.
This day also provides an opportunity for countries to assess their food security conditions. Thus, this was one of the major discussion themes in South Africa’s agriculture last month.
At a national level, South Africa is considered food secure; however, this manifests differently at the household level, with many families still struggling with food insecurity.
Speaking in the Western Cape on October 17, President Cyril Ramaphosa also weighed in on the country’s household food insecurity challenge, correctly highlighting the household poverty challenges and emphasising the need to find ways of addressing the food insecurity crisis in the country.
Food insecurity has many different explanatory factors. Income poverty is one driver of household food insecurity in the country.
Moreover, the inefficient logistics and higher energy prices, amongst other factors that contribute to the cost structure of the economy, are sources of persistent cost pressure in the food value chain. These add upward pressure to food production costs, even in times of ample harvests.
Still, the fact that we have a robust agricultural sector, with surpluses, significantly helps boost food security at the national level.
Indeed, South Africa remains a conundrum, being both food secure at the national level and a net exporter of roughly half of its agricultural and food products annually in value terms.
Clearly, our household food insecurity challenges are not just an agricultural matter, but a challenge that requires a broader economic policy response. This is particularly true, as household food insecurity is primarily a challenge of inadequate household income to a large degree.
Therefore, ensuring the growth of the economy and job creation likely have a more notable impact in resolving our poverty challenges than simply focusing on agriculture per se.
This is not to negate the role agriculture can play. Indeed, the sector could play a positive role in creating jobs, specifically for the rural poor, where other sectors of the economy tend to be a lot smaller.
But the sector alone will not be able to change the South African household food insecurity challenge. Focusing on the reforms in the economy that stimulate growth in the various sectors, boost investments, and subsequently employment should be the key focus of policymakers.
It could be argued that South African households, although not experiencing food prices rising at a faster pace than in other countries globally, still pay reasonably higher prices for specific products. The underlying drive of costs in the food system, amongst other factors, is the value chain associated costs, as we stated above.
Therefore, observing only agricultural commodity prices as a signal for food prices is insufficient. Other notable food costs are associated with the processing and distribution of food products nationwide.
In addition to this, South African households spend a substantial portion of their wages on transport costs due to the deterioration of the public transport system. Therefore, public transport is another area that requires closer focus.
Another area of household spending, which we have not conducted in-depth research on, but requires closer examination, is the share of household spending on gambling activities. We are not attributing this factor to the rising household food insecurity in the country. Still, it warrants some attention given its growing prominence in the spending of South African households.
Ultimately, South Africa should address the constraints to growth, investment, and employment to alleviate the growing poverty.
The focus on agriculture is one aspect, but the policy response will need to be broader, focusing on strengthening income security, particularly for the most vulnerable households.
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What began as a promising path to boosting inclusive growth in SA’s agriculture has become mired in unending discussions, and the implementation effort has been hazy at best.
In May 2022, then Minister of Agriculture, Land Reform, and Rural Development Thoko Didiza launched SA’s Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan, co-created by the government, organised agriculture, labour, and other stakeholders.
The document outlined the main constraints on SA’s agriculture and agroprocessing, and presented solutions. The distinct aspect was its focus on various commodity value chains and the mapping of commodity corridors across the country.
What followed was the creation of structures that monitor implementation and processes across the various commodities.
The master plan is critical because, while SA’s agriculture gross value added has more than doubled since the dawn of democracy, there is still potential for growth. However, various inefficiencies persist, which increase transaction costs for farming businesses and constrain their expansion.
Fortunately, when agriculture minister John Steenhuisen began his term, he recognised the value of the master plan and continued to champion it.
But there is now growing criticism from some sections of the farming community against the plan, claiming it lacks an inclusive approach. These views are misguided. After all, the master plan was co-created by most agricultural stakeholders.
Importantly, what remains fundamental is whether the plan addresses the sector’s main constraints. We believe the ideal path is to support its implementation and to advocate for updates as the implementation continues. Seeking to start a new process will not help the sector’s growth ambitions.
That said, the implementation has not been as encouraging as many had hoped. There are pockets of progress, but not with a coordinated focus. One reason for this may be the lack of focus and coordinated, consistent push from both the government and the private sector.
Often, discussions of broad policies and programmes take place in Pretoria, but the actual implementation of the plans is the responsibility of provincial and local officials. Placing sufficient attention on educating and training officials on new plans and ensuring their buy-in at such levels is critical for the success of any government-led programmes.
It is possible that in many provinces the efforts of provincial officials do not match the enthusiasm of the political leadership in Pretoria. Such disconnects may discourage farmers and agribusinesses, slowing the implementation of programmes such as the master plan.
For much of 2025, discussions about the master plan were revived only after the Department of Agriculture sought to review its progress and restore stakeholder engagement. Before that, the focus nationally was primarily on geopolitical matters and on the impact of US import tariffs on SA agricultural exports.
While such discussions are valuable and central to the sector’s growth, they need not be the dominant focus to the extent that insufficient time is given to long-running programmes that are critical to the sector’s success. SA still needs to deal with animal diseases, inadequately maintained roads, inefficiencies in rail, rural crime, inefficient registration of agrochemicals and inept municipalities, among other things. Many commodity-specific matters require our attention.
Moreover, in the context of inclusive growth, the political leadership in the Department of Land Reform and Rural Development has taken little action to release government-owned land, along with title deeds, to deserving black farmers, allowing them to participate in agriculture on a commercial basis. In this context, it is probably fair to argue that they, too, have constrained the implementation of the master plan.
While it is crucial to engage with geopolitics, many domestic issues also deserve attention, including the master plan. It should be implemented.
It is still too early to be sure about what South Africa’s 2025-26 maize crop could be. But what we know is that farmers intend to lift the area they plant by 1% to 4.5 million hectares. They are upbeat and have been buying tractors. We have been witnessing strong tractor sales, which suggests that they are optimistic about the 2025-26 season.
Still, we will need to closely monitor the planting activity in the coming weeks to determine if the planned planting materializes. However, considering the historical perspective, it typically does. In fact, farmers have begun tilling the land in various regions of the country.
Importantly, the rainfall prospects are positive, with a forecast La Niña through to February 2026. This corresponds with the planting and crop growing timeframe. Thus, underscoring the point that we are heading to another year of possibly ample maize crop harvest.
As we close the season, we expect a maize crop harvest of approximately 16.4 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season, which is significantly above South Africa’s maize needs of 12.0 million tonnes, resulting in a considerable surplus for export markets.
I am narrating this brief view because the update from the International Grains Council about South Africa’s 2025-26 maize crop caught my attention. They foresee a slightly lower harvest of 16.0 million tonnes, compared to the 16.4 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season.
Given the possible increase in the area plantings in the 2025-26 season, and the favourable weather outlook, I am inclined to believe that the International Grains Council’s estimate is much more conservative. I think we will likely see another year of a larger crop, and perhaps even a bigger one than the 16.4 million tonnes of the 2024-25 season.
The International Grains Council reviews its figures monthly, which means they may likely lift the estimate as more information about the 2025-26 season becomes available and the planting season progresses.
Indeed, both my comments and those of the International Grains Council are generally based on early impressions; it is still early days. But we are typically optimistic that South Africa will likely have another better maize harvest season in 2025-26. What the International Grains Council published is likely on the lower end of what is possible. I remain of the view that we may as well see a bigger harvest.
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He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
