by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 17, 2025 | Food Security
The President delivered a vital speech today in Cape Town about food insecurity issues in South Africa. He correctly highlighted the household poverty challenges and emphasised the need to find numerous ways of addressing the food insecurity crisis in the country.
Income poverty (which requires an increase in job creation) is one aspect. Inefficient logistics and higher energy prices are among the pressures in the food value chain; thus, we remain with relatively higher food prices, even in times of ample harvests.
Still, the fact that we have a solid agricultural sector, with surpluses, helps a great deal in boosting food security at a NATIONAL LEVEL.
Moreover, another reason for household food insecurity is the low and stagnant growth, which contributes to unacceptable levels of unemployment. On top of this, South Africans spend a significant portion of their wages on transport costs due to the collapse of our public transport system. Ultimately, the country should deal with the constraints to growth, investment and employment.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 14, 2025 | Food Security
On October 14, the Business Day newspaper published a story where Shoprite, one of South Africa’s retailers, reminded us of the worsening level of poverty in the country. The organisation attributed the deteriorating poverty, in part, to the:
“deep challenges in food affordability and access, with consumers under severe pressure in the face of subdued economic growth and high unemployment.”
This picture is not very different from what Statistics South Africa also highlighted earlier this year. In February 2025, Statistics South Africa released the Food Security Report for 2019, 2022, and 2023 (COVID-19 affected the ability to collect data in 2020 and 2021). The report utilised data from the General Household Survey (GHS) for those years.
The report’s most striking observation was that:
“The proportion of households in South Africa that experienced moderate to severe food insecurity was estimated at 15.8% in 2019, 16.2% in 2022, and 19.7% in 2023. Over this period, the proportion of households that experienced severe food insecurity was estimated to be 6.4%, 7.5%, and 8.0%, respectively.”
I want to stress, however, that it appears the deteriorating food security is not due to a lack of nutritious, high-quality food and safe food products or high prices per se. Access seems to be the fundamental challenge, especially for households with no regular income sources.
Therefore, addressing income poverty at the household level must be the centre of any strategy to address food insecurity.
Clearly, while agriculture, the sector I work in, can play a role, this challenge requires coordinated efforts to grow the South African economy, lift employment across various sectors, and provide appropriate support to vulnerable households.
Despite the concerning trend in Stats SA’s survey, South Africa remains food secure and is a net exporter of agricultural products at the national level. Exports are necessary for sustaining farming incomes, generating the resources needed for investment, and ultimately, the sector’s ability to create and maintain jobs.
Notably, South Africa does not export its food supplies without appropriately considering the domestic food needs at the national level. Moreover, the country’s food prices remain relatively moderate. Despite this, food insecurity will remain a challenge if households have little to no income.
Agriculture will play its role where possible, and the path for agricultural growth has been studied and incorporated into policy thinking. For example, at a technical level, expanding agriculture and agro-processing capacity to boost growth and job creation was well established as far back as the National Development Plan 2012.
They were again highlighted in the 2019 National Treasury paper, in the 2022 Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan, and, most recently, in my book titled A Country of Two Agricultures: The Disparities, The Challenges, The Solutions.
Ultimately, South Africa’s agriculture plays a role in resolving household poverty challenges. However, the responsibility does not lie solely in the sector.
Other sectors of the economy can play an essential role in creating jobs and fiscal space, which can be used for various social causes to improve the quality of life in South Africa.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 17, 2025 | Food Security
We see a constructive picture of South Africa’s food price inflation, easing at 5.2% in August 2025, from 5.5% in the previous months (the details are on this Stats SA chart). South Africa has an abundant harvest of grains, fruits, and various vegetables, and the benefits of this are starting to show in prices. It is these products that were the major drivers of the moderation in price inflation.
A key product that many are watching is meat, particularly beef (and red meat products), which has remained elevated, although slaughtering has resumed in major feedlots across the country. The issue is that South Africa is experiencing a foot and mouth disease outbreak.
Initially, the panic buying, not necessarily a shortage of product, was the main driver of meat prices. This is when the country’s largest feedlot announced the cases in its facility. This led to concerns about red meat supplies and some panic buying, thus pushing up prices. The slaughtering has now resumed in the major feedlots, although foot and mouth remains a profound challenge in the country.
We must also remember that when there are outbreaks of disease, South Africa is temporarily restricted from various export markets, which, over time, increases the supply of red meat into the local market.
This all sounds encouraging for a consumer, but the red meat producers in South Africa are under enormous financial pressure. This has been a challenging year.
From a consumer perspective, we anticipate the red meat picture (prices) will ease in the coming months. We are already seeing better prices at the farm level. This, together with better grain prices, all point to a potentially moderating food price inflation for the coming months.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 20, 2025 | Food Security
In yesterday’s letter, I stated my view on South Africa’s food price inflation prospects, signalling a possible moderation. But as the close observers of the data have seen, we have continued to observe a faster rate of increase in South Africa’s consumer food prices.
The data released on August 20 by Statistics South Africa shows that the consumer food price inflation rose to the highest level in 18 months, at 5.5% in July 2025, from 4,7% in June, underpinned primarily by the continuous increases in the meat and vegetables prices.
So, doesn’t this mean we are changing our view about the path ahead? No, we believe the major drivers of these particular products are temporary. Thus, we have maintained our view of potentially moderating food price inflation in the coming months.
As with the previous month, the increase in the meat price inflation was due to two significant factors, which have now somewhat eased.
First, the outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil led to South Africa temporarily restricting the imports of poultry products from Brazil, causing panic in the market. However, the restrictions have now been lifted, and imports are slowly recovering.
Second, South Africa experienced an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, which led to concerns about red meat supplies and some panic buying, thus temporarily pushing up prices. The slaughtering has now resumed in the major feedlots, and we continue to believe we may see easing in red meat prices, which should be reflected in the inflation figures of the coming months.
Moreover, when there are outbreaks of disease, South Africa is temporarily restricted from various export markets, which, over time, increases the supply of red meat into the local market.
About vegetables, the price increases are primarily because of the excessive rain’s impact on products, as we have seen volumes of certain products down somewhat in various Fresh Produce Markets in the past couple of months. But the recent data are showing an improvement, which again underscores our view that the recent price inflation acceleration may be temporary.
In essence, while food price inflation accelerated in July, we expect some moderation in the coming months, as the prices of the above products potentially slow, and we see the continuous benefits of an ample domestic grains harvest and a decent fruit harvest that continue to enter the market.
South Africa’s headline CPI was 3.5% in July 2025, from 3.0% in the previous month.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 19, 2025 | Food Security
We have inflation data for July out later this morning, and I will be looking closely at the food category. Last month, South Africa’s consumer food price inflation rose to the highest level in 16 months, at 4.7% in June 2025, from 4,4% in May, underpinned mainly by the recent increases in the meat, oils and fats, and vegetables prices.
Commenting after the release of these figures, I noted that the acceleration does not alter our assessment of moderate food price inflation in 2025. I still maintain this view, although there are a few items worth monitoring closely, such as meat and vegetables.
In the case of meat, there remains room for potential upside on price inflation, but this will be temporary.
The key factors to consider are that, at the start of the year, consumer demand was improving, and abattoirs capitalised on this improvement by raising prices. This continued for some time.
Moreover, there was panic buying after the announcement of the foot and mouth disease. We also temporarily blocked Brazil’s poultry imports due to an outbreak of avian influenza.
But these fundamentals have shifted. The slaughtering has resumed in some major feedlots that were affected by foot-and-mouth disease. Again, when we have foot and mouth disease, our exports are blocked temporarily, leading to an increase in the domestic meat supply.
In the case of poultry, the ban on Brazil’s poultry imports has been lifted. This is all to say, if we see meat elevated, we will know when the data is out, it may be the tail-end effects of these issues.
In the case of the vegetables, the weather impact affected the supplies a bit in some areas. But if one has been observing volumes in various Fresh Produce Markets, things are normalising well.
Another product that saw an increase in June was oils and fats, primarily linked to increases in the global vegetable market, partly because of the strong global demand for palm oil. We expect the decent local sunflower seed crop to help ease any concerns about supplies in the local market in the coming months.
On the positive side for the consumer, many of the above factors may be temporary. Importantly, we have ample domestic summer grain and oilseeds, and a good fruit harvest, all of which bode well for moderating food price inflation. It is on this basis that last month, I signalled an optimistic view of moderating food price inflation in 2025.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Jul 30, 2025 | Food Security
South Africa’s consumer food price inflation rose to the highest level in 16 months, at 4.7%, in June 2025, from 4.4% in May, underpinned mainly by recent increases in the price of meat; oils and fats and vegetables. But this increase does not alter our assessment of moderate food price inflation in 2025.
The increase in the meat price inflation was due to two significant factors, which have somewhat eased. First, the outbreak of avian flu in Brazil led to South Africa temporarily restricting imports of poultry products from the country, causing panic in the market. South Africa imports roughly 20% of its annual poultry needs, and Brazil is one of the key suppliers. However, the restrictions have now been lifted and imports are expected to recover in the coming months.
The restrictions were necessary to ascertain the scale of avian flu in Brazil and ensure that it was eradicated before imports could resume. South Africa has received confirmation that Brazil has successfully eradicated the disease and lifted the ban on imports. There will be a lag before we see the impact of improved supplies on prices.
Second, South Africa experienced an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, which led to concerns about red meat supplies and some panic buying, temporarily pushing up prices. This was particularly true after the country’s largest feedlot reported an outbreak.
This was followed by a vaccination campaign to limit the spread of the disease. We understand that slaughtering has now resumed in the major feedlots, and we are seeing some easing in red meat prices, which should be reflected in the inflation figures of the coming months.
Moreover, when there are outbreaks of disease, South Africa is temporarily restricted from various export markets, which, over time, increases the supply of red meat to the local market.
This does not mean the foot-and-mouth disease is over in South Africa — far from it. The livestock industry remains in a challenging condition, with increasing costs affecting cattle farmers and feedlots.
One of the interventions South Africa must undertake is the widespread vaccination of cattle against foot-and-mouth disease, as it occurs more frequently. However, this also requires that the country focus on reviving its domestic vaccination manufacturing capability, which was one of the casualties of state capture. Still, for the main point of this article — food inflation — the path ahead looks promising. It is farmers who continue to be under financial strain and are price takers.
Regarding the oils and fats, the local market somewhat mirrors the trades we see globally, and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation’s Vegetable Oil Price Index has remained elevated in recent times due to strong global demand for palm oil. This matters because South Africa imports a sizable amount of palm oil for both food and industrial use. Still, we also have domestic production of some vegetable oils, such as canola and sunflower seed.
We expect the decent local sunflower seed crop to help ease any concerns about supplies in the local market in the coming months.
Overall, we anticipate South Africa’s food price inflation to moderate in the coming months, as the benefits of ample domestic grains and an expected decent fruit harvest continue to enter the market.
We also believe that the worries about meat prices will ease soon as supplies recover. We also view the recent increases in vegetable prices as a temporary blip due to weather issues and expect supplies of various vegetable products to recover significantly in the second half of the year.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Jul 14, 2025 | Food Security
Brazil is a major producer of coffee, accounting for nearly 40% of global coffee production. Other major producers are Vietnam 17%, Colombia 8%, Indonesia 6% and Ethiopia 6%, amongst others.
Brazil is also a major coffee exporter to the U.S. Consequently, the 50% tariffs that will take effect on August 1 will likely cause Americans headaches. Brazil’s coffee is inescapable due to its significance in global coffee production.
Coffee prices have been relatively high since the start of the year due to unfavourable weather conditions in Vietnam and Brazil, which have weighed on global supplies. The U.S. tariffs will pose a challenge for American consumers.
We are watching the impact of all this on the global coffee prices, which have surged recently on the back of the U.S. tariffs and the preexisting challenges of unfavourable production conditions in South America.
As South Africa, we import coffee, and Brazil can surely have room to increase supplies to South Africa. I know our domestic tea and coffee producers won’t like me saying this. But hey, we have a decent demand for coffee (just like we do with other “substantive beverages” like whiskies, where we spend over US$300 million on imports annually).
Anyways, if one looks at South Africa’s coffee imports by volume, we imported, on average, about 23,921 tonnes per annum in the past five years. Brazil and Vietnam accounted for 54% of South Africa’s coffee imports. Other suppliers of coffee to South Africa include Uganda (8% of SA’s imports), Tanzania (7%), Colombia (4%), Guatemala (4%), Ethiopia (3%), and Honduras (3%).
So, if Brazil can offer competitively priced, high-quality products, it can take a market share from the likes of Vietnam and many African suppliers. The South African consumer is not asking for much – just high quality and a better price.
In these times of export diversification, while South Africa is a small importer, it certainly can take a few more tonnes of coffee imports from Brazil.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Jun 18, 2025 | Food Security
At a time when avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease have been in the headlines, it is reasonable for people to closely watch consumer food price inflation to gauge the pass-through of these issues.
On June 18, we had inflation data for May 2025. South Africa’s consumer food price inflation has continued to accelerate; however, this should not be a concern, as the recent upticks are in line with expectations and may be short-lived.
The data released earlier today by Statistics South Africa shows that consumer food price inflation accelerated to 4.4% in May from 3.3% in April 2025.
The acceleration in price inflation of meat, fish, and other seafood, oils and fats, fruit and nuts, and vegetables mainly underpinned the uptick.
Meanwhile, the other products remained roughly unchanged, while others experienced slowing price inflation.
Regarding meat, the key issues that have dominated the headlines are the outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil and its potential impact on domestic poultry supplies and prices. The second concern relates to beef supplies following the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.
Still, we believe the effects of these two events have not yet been fully factored into the current price trends. The price increases we observe are essentially a continuation of the past few months, mainly due to base effects, the rising domestic demand, and the suppliers’ window to pass on some costs they have experienced stemming from higher feed prices over the past couple of months before the recent cooling of maize and soybean prices.
In the case of beef, it is essential to note that, unlike what is generally stated in the commentary, when an outbreak occurs, red meat exports are temporarily banned, which increases local supplies.
In the past, this led to a mild decline in red meat prices. This is why we have doubts about the talk of potential sharp increases in red meat prices in the coming months due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.
Regarding poultry, South Africa has temporarily restricted imports from Brazil, one of its largest suppliers of poultry products, due to an outbreak of avian influenza there.
However, this ban is for the short term, and the authorities have indicated that South Africa will restrict imports only in the affected areas, not the entire country of Brazil. This means that any poultry supply issue, if it arises, will be temporary.
Based on these two factors, we are inclined to believe that the recent uptick in meat inflation may prove to be short-lived.
Regarding fruits and vegetables, we observe a recovery in the supply of various products in the fresh produce markets and suspect that prices may moderate in the coming months. The recent increases reflect the disruptions in supplies that have occurred in recent months, some of which are related to weather issues.
Similarly, oil and fat prices may soften in the coming months as we are starting to see this trend internationally, and we are an importer of a range of vegetable oils. For example, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 152.2 points in May, 4% lower than in April. Lower prices of palm, rapeseed, soy, and sunflower oils drove this.
On a positive note, we see a moderation in grain-related product prices, which reflects the better harvest in the 2024-25 season domestically, as well as the better rice, wheat, and maize harvest globally. We expect this current moderation to continue in the coming months.
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