The centrality of trade diversification to the US tariff saga in recent months is understandable, as there are immediate and notable implications for various exporting businesses. But the recently announced 30% tariff on SA goods imported by the US is not the end of the road. Negotiations continue between the two countries. Still, the lingering uncertainty and the fact that the tariffs are already in place are major concerns.
As SA navigates the tariff issue in the coming weeks, there will be an increasing need to allocate resources and intellectual capital wisely when it comes to trade matters in general. We are in a rapidly changing world, and the global trading system has been upended. SA must increase its efforts in two areas: retaining existing markets in various regions of the world and expanding access in new places.
This does not mean deprioritising the US, but adapting to the evolving world we live in. These processes involve both the effective deployment of the skill set available in the government and being open to new ideas from other stakeholders in society, such as business and academia.
Regarding the retention of markets, the approach may differ sectoraly. For example, in agriculture, the African market and the EU are vital, accounting for roughly two-thirds of annual exports. These regions also have minimal capacity to increase in the near term. Therefore, the key is to retain them through continuous interaction with the various embassies and active engagement in all established forums, so that SA’s interests are well entrenched.
The composition of the agricultural products SA intends to expand exports in for the coming years — mainly high-value fruits, red meat and wines — also means that in some African countries where incomes are still low, demand may remain constrained even if trade penetration is not a significant hindrance.
The countries where SA agriculture has enjoyed good access on the continent are mainly in Southern Africa. This means favourable relations with our neighbouring countries are vital for our agricultural export activity.
In the EU, markets are diverse, but comprise mainly high-value fruits and wines. This access is crucial for the domestic industries, so importers and diplomats must be among our priority contacts; they cannot be allowed to fall off the radar screen due to all the attention on the US.
Beyond Africa and the EU, the Middle East and Asia are among SA’s most significant agricultural export markets. In Asia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and China are among the key countries SA has access to, and where we could still increase exports. However, the immediate issue remains relatively high import tariffs and phytosanitary barriers.
This is particularly the case with China, where demand for agriculture is notable, amounting to more than $200bn in agricultural products a year. These imports are roughly of similar composition to SA’s range of agricultural exports, which reinforces the need to address the current barriers.
Engaging China practically and with speed about its proposal to lower tariffs, while guarding against costs to sensitive domestic industries, is an urgent priority.
In the Middle East, the likes of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia remain crucial for export expansion in fruits, red meat, live sheep and grains. Beyond addressing the tariffs and phytosanitary measures that are in place, we will also require an increase in marketing efforts to boost demand for SA Inc. products in these markets.
We continue to see excellent maize export activity. I think there will be a greater increase in momentum at the end of the year and going into 2026. At the moment, some countries, especially on the continent, still have supplies from the recent harvest. But they may need to supplement them later in the year.
It was interesting to see that last week, our maize exports are not only recovering in the Far East, but Venezuela is also reappearing in the export list once again, having imported 17,866 tonnes of South African white maize variety in the week of 01 August 2025. Not that Venezuela is a lucrative market, but the point is that we are back in export markets beyond the continent in the maize industry.
The last time Venezuela was in our maize export list with a decent maize purchase was in 2018, with about 31,500 tonnes of maize imports.
Anyways, I wanted to highlight in this post that South Africa exported 32,122 tonnes of maize in the week of 01 August 2025. About 56% was exported to Venezuela, and the rest to the Southern African region.
This placed South Africa’s 2025-26 maize exports at 460,431 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.12 million tonnes. The current marketing year only ends in April 2026.
Again, we will likely see more robust export activity later in the year as the demand increases in other regions of the world.
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South Africa’s maize exports are back in the Far East export markets. These aren’t new territories for our maize. We typically export to them during the seasons of abundance, such as this one.
Last season, we did not see many maize exports to the Far East. Our export activity focused on Africa. The region was hit by the drought and needed maize more than other regions for staple food. South Africa channelled its maize exports, mainly white maize, to this region.
And yes, South Africa was also hit by the drought, but we still had a relatively decent yield, and also benefited from supplies from the past season. This enabled South Africa to export more maize to the African continent. Zimbabwe accounted for 56% of South Africa’s maize exports of 2.3 million tonnes last year.
Zambia, the second largest maize producer in the Southern Africa region, has seen a recovery in its 2024-25 maize production (this season corresponds with the 2025-26 marketing year), now estimated at 3.66 million tonnes, up from 1.50 million tonnes in the previous season, according to Zambia’s government data.
Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize production is forecast at 1.30 million tonnes, according to recent data from the Pretoria-based unit of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is just more than twice the output from the previous season. Still, it is below the 2.00 million tonnes Zimbabwe requires for its domestic annual consumption. Thus, the country may still import later in the year. South Africa and Zambia may be the major maize suppliers to Zimbabwe.
In South Africa, our maize production is at 15.03 million tonnes, which is 17% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
Indeed, in the week of July 25, South Africa exported 63,897 tonnes of maize. About 79% was exported to Taiwan, and the rest to the Southern African region. This placed South Africa’s 2025-26 maize exports at 428,975 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.0 million tonnes. The current marketing year only ends in April 2026.
In the 428,975 tonnes of South Africa’s maize exports in the first 13 weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year, nearly half is the Far East markets (25% to Vietnam, 12% to Taiwan, and 11% to South Korea). These are South Africa’s traditional maize export markets, mainly yellow maize for animal feed. But we didn’t export during the years of drought. It is good to see them back buying South Africa’s high-quality maize.
We will likely see more robust export activity later in the year once farmers have completed the harvest and there is grain in the silos for export.
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We are yet in another week of profound uncertainty in trade policy. Whatever the outcome of South Africa-U.S. engagement is at the end of the week, what is clear is that we will not be back to the environment we were in at the start of the year, where there was some form of stability and predictability.
The new world brings increased costs to businesses as planning becomes ever more challenging. In agriculture, the numbers are precise: the U.S. market remains important, accounting for roughly 4% of exports, but all concentrated in a few industries such as citrus, nuts, table grapes, wine, and ostrich products, among others. There is also geographic overexposure of the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, amongst others.
The impact is even more significant in the auto industry and others.
Either South Africa reaches a relatively favourable deal with the U.S. or not, the path ahead will remain challenging, as we see that even countries that have reached a “deal” still face relatively higher tariffs, as we see with double-digit figures in Vietnam, the EU, and Japan, amongst others. This means much of the outcomes depend on the U.S. posture, more than the offerings by other countries.
The long-term approach for South Africa remains focused on export diversification. But all this happens at a time when other countries are seeking the same approach, which increases competition in any markets we explore.
As South Africa, we also need a mindset shift and start embracing more Free Trade Agreements, and encourage our SACU members to follow suit, as this will help in fast-tracking our engagements in market diversification. The cautious approach of the past decade may not apply this time around.
Under such an environment, it may be helpful for South African businesses and academia to start scanning the markets and regions they may expand to, so that insight can supplement the efforts of the government initiative to enhance diversification.
Indeed, this will be a long process, as there are relationships and logistical arrangements that may need to be established before any meaningful trade. It is also in this place that the government trade fairs and representatives in our various embassies will have to adopt a more proactive approach in assisting the South African businesses.
This process will take time and be costly, but that is the nature of this changing environment.
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In the wake of the trade friction presented by US President Donald Trump’s latest adjustment to his “Liberation Day” import tariffs, which are now at about 30% and pose profound challenges for SA exporting businesses, the government has signalled that work will soon begin on an export diversification strategy for the country. This would be a way to spread the risk, given that trade fragmentation remains a persistent global theme.
However, since May, much of the effort by the SA authorities has been focused on US issues, with limited work on the export diversification approach. This should not have been the case; the ideal approach is a simultaneous process, where export diversification continues while other teams manage US trade relations.
One could argue that export diversification is where the government should be directing most of its energies. There are always risks associated with being overconcentrated in a few markets, as disruption in those markets could have effects on growth and employment.
SA must therefore diversify its exports away from the US. To be clear, diversification is not the same as replacement; rather, it should be viewed as building upon or expanding into other markets.
In the case of SA’s agriculture, while accounting for just 4% of exports of $13.7bn from 2024, the US remains vital and concentrated in a few critical industries, including citrus, nuts, table grapes, wine and ostrich products. Given the existing relationships and logistical arrangements, the US relationship cannot be replaced overnight. The market must be nurtured, navigating the friction and advocating for lower tariffs, ultimately leading to a trade agreement.
Export diversification will take time to materialise. The Department of Trade, Industry & Competition, which leads the effort to expand exports, will need to begin this process.
It is unavoidable in gaining a market advantage vis-à-vis competitors to negotiate bilateral trade agreements. These create better market access opportunities while also exposing different sectors to international competition, thereby forcing them to be competitive.
Countries build better when they can uncover their comparative advantage and create a competitive edge, something that is only possible through competition and essential government support. This pivot will require increased human capital at the department, a shift in incentives to allocate resources towards market development and export promotion initiatives, and a change in the template from ideologically driven frameworks to more pragmatic approaches to trade in a changing global landscape.
With clarity on the export diversification strategy, the industry can also rise to the challenge and provide support. Though the government stated its intention to work on export diversification in May, there has been minimal progress, as the energy has primarily been devoted to US matters. We need to start laying the foundations for SA’s long-term resilience, and diversification is a key instrument in achieving it.
When the export diversification process finally gains momentum, China, India, and the broader Middle East are some of the markets SA’s agriculture would benefit immensely from in terms of deepening trade. China has recently signalled its willingness to lower tariffs for goods imported from African countries.
However, China’s decision to exclude Eswatini from potential trade benefits also complicates SA’s standing, as the government would normally negotiate trade matters as part of the Southern African Customs Union, which involves Eswatini.
Ultimately, SA must also enhance its human capital in trade matters and expedite its efforts on export diversification, while consistently engaging with the US. Trade is crucial to the country’s long-term agricultural growth and broader economic development.
He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
