by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 31, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
Some countries in the Southern Africa region have some maize supplies from the recent harvest. South Africa is likely to see its exports slow down for now, particularly to countries in the region. We may continue to see encouraging export volumes to the Far East and other areas of the world.
Still, towards the end of the year and into 2026, when domestic supplies are somewhat depleted in the various countries in the region, they will return to the market and import maize. This was not the case last season, as most countries were negatively affected by the drought and required massive imports throughout. This time around, we had favourable summer rains that supported grain production across the Southern Africa region.
It is this brief context that we must keep in mind when observing maize export data these days. The exports aren’t down because our maize is expensive; in fact, maize prices have been under pressure in recent weeks as farmers delivered decent maize volumes to silos, and South Africa expects an ample harvest of 15.80 million tonnes, which is 23% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season.
It is against this background that, for example, maize exports for the past week were mediocre. For example, South Africa exported 14,428 tonnes of maize in the week of August 22, all of which was destined for the Southern African region.
This placed South Africa’s 2025-26 maize exports at 553,808 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.12 million tonnes. The current marketing year only ends in April 2026.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 30, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
The US’s decision to impose a steep tariff on imports from SA has ignited an urgent discussion on how best to minimise the effect of these measures on various exporting sectors, including agriculture.
In addition to the ongoing conversation about expanding SA’s agricultural export markets, we believe the country must accelerate its efforts to promote agricultural products in international markets.
The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition typically leads the various trade shows, supported by the private sector and other government agencies. These trade shows, more than ever, must be channelled to the priority regions for our export expansion plan.
The visibility of the high-quality variety of SA agricultural products is key for marketing purposes and informing consumers and retailers in various countries about the products they could source from SA. We believe such marketing work and formal trade conversations would be a powerful approach for ensuring the penetration of the SA agricultural products into a range of new markets.
Importantly, government officials in SA, particularly those in the Department of Agriculture responsible for export-related matters, should also share a sense of urgency for promoting exports. They should work collaboratively to assist exporting businesses rather than creating more bureaucratic hindrances, while the global interest is established.
We have heard of a few cases where there is often a lack of collaboration from the domestic side, while international consumers are open to SA products, particularly for some processed products. A case in point is the pet food industry, where local authorities often move much more slowly than exporters would like.
While SA is thriving in Africa and Europe, which account for roughly two-thirds of its agricultural exports in value terms, there remains room for expansion in other regions. Asia the Middle East are some of the areas we continue to see greater opportunity for export expansion. During various government visits to these regions, bringing the private sector along for deeper business engagement and optimising existing structures for trade shows should be explored.
Also critical in this trade conversation is the appropriate staffing of embassies in the key export markets. The support staff at the embassies must have the proper skillset to assist the SA businesses in their commercial activities. Indeed, the guidelines of the work must be outlined in SA’s economic diplomacy strategy, spelling out both the country’s economic and commercial diplomacy focus. Such a vision and strategy would then guide the work of the support staff.
The discussions on trade policy cannot be limited to the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition alone. They require a comprehensive approach to ensure the agreements are rooted in the aspirations of business and national priorities. Importantly, these engagements create a platform for executing trade and increasing the visibility of SA agricultural products in the world market.
This sector of the economy still has potential to create more jobs at the primary level and in the value chains. However, the employment and sustainability of the industry depend on a comprehensive growth approach. Maximising trade opportunities is key to ensuring that we continue on an export-led growth approach.
There is also a need to ensure that the exporting industries are well supported. As such, a deeper involvement of officials in SA’s various embassies is even more critical as the country strengthens its export approach, particularly for agricultural and other exporting sectors of the economy.
This new path requires a well-communicated and supported economic diplomacy strategy for the country, along with the alignment of all necessary interventions to support it. All these priorities are in recognition of the role of agriculture in supporting SA’s economic growth.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 24, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
The access to the various export markets that some SA industries enjoy now is the result of the efforts of the past two decades. What is critical for the sustained success of our export markets is the initiatives we take now in the changing global trading system to secure constant access, and to open more avenues.
Regarding the agricultural sector, in the early 2000s we exported about $2bn worth of products. From the mid-2000s to the 2010s we managed to secure more export markets and SA’s agricultural exports gained momentum. In 2018 SA’s agricultural exports crossed the $10bn mark, and have remained robust since.
With the steady export activity, farmers responded positively by continuously improving the productivity and quality of the produce. The export efforts came from the private sector, organised agriculture, academia and the government, among other key stakeholders. It is due to such effective collaboration that SA’s farming sector is now the 32nd largest exporter globally in value terms, and the only African country among the top 40 of global agricultural exporters.
These exports were at a record $13.7bn in 2024. The success of opening these markets also came amid embracing globalisation. We are now at a different time, in which fragmentation is the theme.
At the weekend I looked at how SA’s agricultural export activity is progressing so far this year. In the doom and gloom of the day on trade matters, SA’s agricultural export figures remain encouraging. After solid export activity in the first quarter of the year, SA’s agricultural exports totalled $3.71bn in the second quarter of 2025, up 10% from the same period in 2024. This is a function of higher volumes of various product exports and better commodity prices.
The products that dominated the exports list in the second quarter of the year were mainly citrus, apples and pears, maize, wine, nuts, fruit juices, dates, pineapples, avocados, grapes and wool. While there remains a need for further improvement in the efficiency of the ports, there has been a material improvement compared with recent years. Agricultural export activity in the second quarter experienced less friction than in the recent past.
SA has been generally successful in securing access to diverse export markets, gaining greater access to the African continent, the EU, Asia, the Middle-East and the Americas, among other regions. Consider the $3.71bn in agricultural exports in the second quarter, about 40% of which was to the African continent. Trailing Africa was the EU, with a 22% share in the exports. About 21% went to the Middle East and Asia, with 7% share being the Americas. The remaining 10% was the rest of the world, including the UK.
The struggle now is about retaining these markets. They each face a range of pressures from countries that want to diversify their exports after the US trade tariffs and the changing global trade landscape. The effort of maintaining these markets must again be rooted in the collaboration of business, organised agriculture, academia and the government, among other stakeholders.
We also have to review the capacity of all stakeholders on trade matters consistently; we no longer have the teams we had in the early 2000s in some departments. Therefore, part of strategising about export diversification involved capacity rebuilding and a shift in mindset towards embracing free trade agreements. The work on all this must start now.
Written for and first appeared in the Business Day.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 22, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
We continue to see encouraging momentum in South Africa’s maize exports. The efficiency at various ports is improving this year, after the challenges of recent years.
Our maize exports are also recovering in the various regions of the world. Last year, we exported a lot to the African continent, which faced low production because of the drought. This year, we are resuming our exports in the Far East and various parts of the world.
One country that has shown up in our maize export list for three consecutive weeks is Venezuela. I am again mentioning them, not that Venezuela is a lucrative market, but the point is that we are back in export markets beyond the continent in the maize industry. We all know the challenges of the Venezuelan economy.
I’m looking at South Africa’s weekly maize exports data, and Venezuela imported 32,999 tonnes of South African white maize variety in the week of 15 August 2025 (following a consignment of 15,134 tonnes in the previous week).
The last time Venezuela was in our maize export list with a decent maize purchase before reappearing this year was in 2018, with about 31,500 tonnes of maize imports. So far this year, Venezuela imported 65,999 tonnes of white maize variety.
Anyways, I wanted to highlight in this post that South Africa exported 44,093 tonnes of maize in the week of 15 August 2025. About 74% was exported to Venezuela, and the rest to the Southern African region.
This placed South Africa’s 2025-26 maize exports at 535,866 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.12 million tonnes. The current marketing year only ends in April 2026. We will likely see more robust export activity later in the year as the demand increases in other regions of the world.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 17, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
I was pleasantly surprised while looking through the second quarter of 2025 exports data for South Africa to notice that agricultural exports to the U.S. were quite strong.
But we must not be complacent in our engagements with the U.S. and start to believe the risk for the year has somewhat been averted. The goal of ensuring better access to the U.S. market remains critical, especially for agriculture (and the auto industry).
The data shows that South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. in the second quarter of 2025 amounted to US$161 million, up 26% from the same period in 2024. This is not a matter of base effects, but a better performance.
And remember, this comes after another exciting quarter at the start of the year, when South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. in the first quarter of 2025 were at US$118 million, up 19% year-on-year.
In the second quarter, the impressive jump in agricultural exports to the U.S. could be because some exporters pushed large volumes to take advantage of the 90-day pause of the Liberation Tariffs. But another factor that partly explains this improvement so far this year is that South Africa generally has an ample fruit harvest and a decent wine harvest of excellent quality.
The products that continue to dominate South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. are citrus, fruit juices, wine, nuts, apricots, apples, pears, and grapes.
We were also lucky this year because the ports have been operating quite efficiently, enabling the exporters to take advantage of the tariff pause window.
The US$161 million of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. account for 4% of the overall agricultural exports to the world market, which were at US$3.71 billion (up 10% year-on-year).
The strong exports to the U.S. also continue to illustrate the importance of the U.S. market to the various industries of South Africa’s agriculture. Therefore, securing better tariff levels will be beneficial to the likes of citrus, nuts, ostrich products, table grapes, and wine industries, amongst others.
Beyond the U.S. agricultural trade matters, we must focus on export diversification, and the starting point must be lower tariffs and simplified phytosanitary regulations in the BRICS countries, specifically China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
We generally need greater access to the Middle East and Asian markets. As all the export expansion efforts continue, the one aspect that we should not neglect is maintaining warm relations with the existing export markets in the EU, broader Africa, the Middle-East, Asia, and the Americas.
South Africa’s agricultural sector is export-oriented, and securing better access to various export markets, while ensuring the maintenance of the existing markets, should remain top of mind for the policy makers and the industry stakeholders. When we think of the medium to long-term growth of South Africa’s agricultural sector, we typically flag the possibilities of expansion area planting and livestock farming, amongst other activities. Any success in such expansion will require an export focus, as the domestic market lacks sufficient capacity to absorb our products at a profitable level for farmers.
So far, what remains uplifting, at least for now, is the fact that the agricultural exports to the U.S. market remain robust. The coming quarters’ performance will depend on whether South Africa achieves better security and tariff levels than the current 30%, which is far above our competitors, such as Chile and Peru, among others.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 10, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
The centrality of trade diversification to the US tariff saga in recent months is understandable, as there are immediate and notable implications for various exporting businesses. But the recently announced 30% tariff on SA goods imported by the US is not the end of the road. Negotiations continue between the two countries. Still, the lingering uncertainty and the fact that the tariffs are already in place are major concerns.
As SA navigates the tariff issue in the coming weeks, there will be an increasing need to allocate resources and intellectual capital wisely when it comes to trade matters in general. We are in a rapidly changing world, and the global trading system has been upended. SA must increase its efforts in two areas: retaining existing markets in various regions of the world and expanding access in new places.
This does not mean deprioritising the US, but adapting to the evolving world we live in. These processes involve both the effective deployment of the skill set available in the government and being open to new ideas from other stakeholders in society, such as business and academia.
Regarding the retention of markets, the approach may differ sectoraly. For example, in agriculture, the African market and the EU are vital, accounting for roughly two-thirds of annual exports. These regions also have minimal capacity to increase in the near term. Therefore, the key is to retain them through continuous interaction with the various embassies and active engagement in all established forums, so that SA’s interests are well entrenched.
The composition of the agricultural products SA intends to expand exports in for the coming years — mainly high-value fruits, red meat and wines — also means that in some African countries where incomes are still low, demand may remain constrained even if trade penetration is not a significant hindrance.
The countries where SA agriculture has enjoyed good access on the continent are mainly in Southern Africa. This means favourable relations with our neighbouring countries are vital for our agricultural export activity.
In the EU, markets are diverse, but comprise mainly high-value fruits and wines. This access is crucial for the domestic industries, so importers and diplomats must be among our priority contacts; they cannot be allowed to fall off the radar screen due to all the attention on the US.
Beyond Africa and the EU, the Middle East and Asia are among SA’s most significant agricultural export markets. In Asia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and China are among the key countries SA has access to, and where we could still increase exports. However, the immediate issue remains relatively high import tariffs and phytosanitary barriers.
This is particularly the case with China, where demand for agriculture is notable, amounting to more than $200bn in agricultural products a year. These imports are roughly of similar composition to SA’s range of agricultural exports, which reinforces the need to address the current barriers.
Engaging China practically and with speed about its proposal to lower tariffs, while guarding against costs to sensitive domestic industries, is an urgent priority.
In the Middle East, the likes of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia remain crucial for export expansion in fruits, red meat, live sheep and grains. Beyond addressing the tariffs and phytosanitary measures that are in place, we will also require an increase in marketing efforts to boost demand for SA Inc. products in these markets.
Written for and first appeared in The Business Day.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 9, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
We continue to see excellent maize export activity. I think there will be a greater increase in momentum at the end of the year and going into 2026. At the moment, some countries, especially on the continent, still have supplies from the recent harvest. But they may need to supplement them later in the year.
It was interesting to see that last week, our maize exports are not only recovering in the Far East, but Venezuela is also reappearing in the export list once again, having imported 17,866 tonnes of South African white maize variety in the week of 01 August 2025. Not that Venezuela is a lucrative market, but the point is that we are back in export markets beyond the continent in the maize industry.
The last time Venezuela was in our maize export list with a decent maize purchase was in 2018, with about 31,500 tonnes of maize imports.
Anyways, I wanted to highlight in this post that South Africa exported 32,122 tonnes of maize in the week of 01 August 2025. About 56% was exported to Venezuela, and the rest to the Southern African region.
This placed South Africa’s 2025-26 maize exports at 460,431 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.12 million tonnes. The current marketing year only ends in April 2026.
Again, we will likely see more robust export activity later in the year as the demand increases in other regions of the world.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 2, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
South Africa’s maize exports are back in the Far East export markets. These aren’t new territories for our maize. We typically export to them during the seasons of abundance, such as this one.
Last season, we did not see many maize exports to the Far East. Our export activity focused on Africa. The region was hit by the drought and needed maize more than other regions for staple food. South Africa channelled its maize exports, mainly white maize, to this region.
And yes, South Africa was also hit by the drought, but we still had a relatively decent yield, and also benefited from supplies from the past season. This enabled South Africa to export more maize to the African continent. Zimbabwe accounted for 56% of South Africa’s maize exports of 2.3 million tonnes last year.
We are now back in the season of abundance. Zambia has surplus maize, and Zimbabwe has a better yield, although it may still need about 700,000 tonnes of maize imports later in the season.
Zambia, the second largest maize producer in the Southern Africa region, has seen a recovery in its 2024-25 maize production (this season corresponds with the 2025-26 marketing year), now estimated at 3.66 million tonnes, up from 1.50 million tonnes in the previous season, according to Zambia’s government data.
Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize production is forecast at 1.30 million tonnes, according to recent data from the Pretoria-based unit of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is just more than twice the output from the previous season. Still, it is below the 2.00 million tonnes Zimbabwe requires for its domestic annual consumption. Thus, the country may still import later in the year. South Africa and Zambia may be the major maize suppliers to Zimbabwe.
In South Africa, our maize production is at 15.03 million tonnes, which is 17% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
Indeed, in the week of July 25, South Africa exported 63,897 tonnes of maize. About 79% was exported to Taiwan, and the rest to the Southern African region. This placed South Africa’s 2025-26 maize exports at 428,975 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.0 million tonnes. The current marketing year only ends in April 2026.
In the 428,975 tonnes of South Africa’s maize exports in the first 13 weeks of the 2025-26 marketing year, nearly half is the Far East markets (25% to Vietnam, 12% to Taiwan, and 11% to South Korea). These are South Africa’s traditional maize export markets, mainly yellow maize for animal feed. But we didn’t export during the years of drought. It is good to see them back buying South Africa’s high-quality maize.
We will likely see more robust export activity later in the year once farmers have completed the harvest and there is grain in the silos for export.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
