by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 18, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
This is an update from the post I made last weekend. I may regularly comment on this as we receive South Africa’s grain trade data weekly. October 10 marked the second week of the new 2025-26 marketing year.
The imports to date have totalled 92,705 tonnes from the United States, Australia, Lithuania, and Poland. The United States was the new addition this marketing year, while the rest of the countries were the primary suppliers in the first week of the 2025-26 marketing year. The year ends in September 2026.
We expect South Africa’s 2025-26 wheat imports to reach 1.74 million tonnes, down from 1.83 million tonnes in 2024-25 marketing year because of an expected slight recovery in the domestic harvest.
Some background
For anyone wondering why South Africa imports wheat, I must highlight some brief historical perspective I have shared here before. South Africa began importing over a million tonnes of wheat from the 2003-04 marketing year.
In the years before that, wheat imports averaged 458,518 tonnes, for example, between 1989-90 and 2002-03. The import surge resulted from increased consumption and a decline in area plantings.
From the 1997-98 season, South Africa’s wheat plantings fell below a million hectares, the norm in seasons before this period. This decline is better explained by the profitability challenges that farmers have faced since that period, specifically in the Free State and in non-conducive climatic conditions.
The critical thing to recall is that before 1997-98, South Africa’s agricultural markets were regulated, and the various commodities boards played a massive role in setting prices, including wheat.
Thus, after deregulation, South African farmers had to compete in the global market. Therefore, the Free State production areas came under profitability strain, resulting in farmers switching from wheat to other profitable crops.
Other provinces of South Africa don’t have large areas with conducive climatic conditions for high-quality wheat milling for human consumption. Hence, we speak of a few central wheat-producing provinces, including the Western Cape and those under irrigation in the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and North West.
A significant development over the years has been the improvement in productivity in South Africa’s wheat farming. In 1997-98, South Africa’s wheat yields were below 2.0 tonnes per hectare. The yields are 3,8 tonnes per hectare as of the 2024-25 production season.
Because of improved profitability, South African wheat production has remained relatively large. The 2021/22 crop was the largest in 20 years, at about 2.3 million tonnes.
In 2025-26, the crop is estimated at 2.03 million tonnes. This is insufficient to meet annual consumption. Thus, we say, South Africa will likely import about 1.74 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year to supplement the domestic supplies. The current import volumes are roughly half of South Africa’s annual wheat needs of 3.8 million tonnes.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 16, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
It is a reasonably busy day. But I do want to comment on the exciting news of South Africa’s signing of the stone fruit trade protocol with China. As South Africa’s Department of Agriculture stated:
“The agreement opens the Chinese market for the first time to five types of South African stone fruit, namely apricots, peaches, nectarines, plums, and prunes. It is also the first instance where China has negotiated access for multiple stone fruit types from a single country under one deal.”
This is commendable, and we must continue working to broaden South Africa’s agricultural access to China.
At the moment, South Africa holds a small share in China’s list of agricultural suppliers, at about 0.4% (US$979 million) of China’s agricultural imports of US$218 billion in 2023.
However, this current access in China is vital for the wool and red meat industry. China accounts for roughly 70% of South Africa’s wool exports. The fruit industry must be the next to see broader access.
There is a progressive increase in red meat exports, even though animal diseases currently cause glitches. The focus should be on expanding this access by lowering import duties/tariffs and other non-tariff barriers to encourage more fruit, grain, and other product exports to China.
Still, it is essential to emphasise that the focus on China is not at the expense of existing agricultural export markets and relationships. Instead, China offers an opportunity to continue with export diversification.
China is among the world’s leading agricultural importers, accounting for 9% of global agricultural imports in 2024 (before 2024, China had been a leading importer for many years). The US was the world’s leading agricultural importer in the same year, accounting for 10% of global imports.
Germany accounted for 7%, followed by the UK (4%), the Netherlands (4%), France (4%), Italy (3%), Japan (3%), Belgium (3%) and Canada (2%).
The diversity of agricultural demand in global markets convinces us that South Africa’s agricultural trade interests should not be limited to one country but should be spread across all major agricultural importers.
Importantly, promoting diversity and maintaining access to various regions have been key components of South Africa’s agricultural trade policy since the dawn of democracy.
For example, in 2024, South Africa exported a record US$13.7 billion of agricultural products, up 3% from the previous year. These exports were spread across the diverse regions. The African continent accounted for the lion’s share of South Africa’s agricultural exports, with a 44% share of the total value.
As a collective, Asia and the Middle East were the second-largest agricultural markets, accounting for 21% of the share of overall farm exports. The EU was South Africa’s third-largest agricultural market, accounting for a 19% share of the market. The Americas region accounted for 6% of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2024. The rest of the world, including the United Kingdom, accounted for 10% of the exports.
So, while the recent protocol is commendable, wider access at lower tariffs is necessary. This export push is key to South Africa’s agricultural growth.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 12, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
South Africa is a net wheat importer, and October 3 marked the first week of the new 2025-26 marketing year. The imports for the first week of the 2025-26 marketing year totalled 20,362 tonnes. The suppliers were from Australia (52%), Lithuania (43%) and Poland (5%).
We expect South Africa’s 2025-26 wheat imports to reach 1.74 million tonnes, down marginally from 1.83 million tonnes in 2024-25 marketing year because of an expected slight recovery in the domestic harvest.
For anyone wondering why South Africa imports wheat, I must highlight some brief historical perspective I have shared here before. South Africa began importing over a million tonnes of wheat from the 2003-04 marketing year.
In the years before that, wheat imports averaged 458,518 tonnes, for example, between 1989-90 and 2002-03. The import surge resulted from increased consumption and a decline in area plantings.
From the 1997-98 season, South Africa’s wheat plantings fell below a million hectares, the norm in seasons before this period. This decline is better explained by the profitability challenges that farmers have faced since that period, specifically in the Free State and in non-conducive climatic conditions.
The critical thing to recall is that before 1997-98, South Africa’s agricultural markets were regulated, and the various commodities boards played a massive role in setting prices, including wheat.
Thus, after deregulation, South African farmers had to compete in the global market. Therefore, the Free State production areas came under profitability strain, resulting in farmers switching from wheat to other profitable crops.
Other provinces of South Africa don’t have large areas with conducive climatic conditions for high-quality wheat milling for human consumption. Hence, we speak of a few central wheat-producing provinces, including the Western Cape and those under irrigation in the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and North West.
A significant development over the years has been the improvement in productivity in South Africa’s wheat farming. In 1997-98, South Africa’s wheat yields were below 2.0 tonnes per hectare. The yields are 3,8 tonnes per hectare as of the 2024-25 production season.
Because of improved profitability, South African wheat production has remained relatively large. The 2021/22 crop was the largest in 20 years, at about 2.3 million tonnes.
In 2025-26, the crop is estimated at 2.03 million tonnes. This is insufficient to meet annual consumption. Thus, we say, South Africa will likely import about 1.74 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year to supplement the domestic supplies. The current import volumes are roughly half of South Africa’s annual wheat needs of 3.8 million tonnes.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 24, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
Earlier this week, at the South Africa–China Trade and Investment Promotion Conference in Johannesburg, China’s Ambassador to South Africa, Mr Wu Peng, stated, among other things, that:
“In recent years, China has steadily increased imports from South Africa. Take agriculture as an example: today, as avocados and dairy products have gained market access to China, 68 categories of South African agri-food products can be exported to China. 90% of South Africa’s pecans and half of its macadamias are sold to China. These products have enriched the food baskets of Chinese consumers, and more importantly, increased the incomes of South African farmers and exporters.”
I want to add that while we appreciate this momentum and want to see a deeper integration of agricultural products into China, there are still some constraints. For example, many of the products that Mr Wu Peng mentioned still face various levels of tariffs. Consider our macadamia nuts; they face a 12% tariff in China. In the case of wine, the industry faces tariffs ranging from 14% to 20% (depending on whether the wine is bottled or sold in bulk).
Still, I say this not to discourage the trade conversation with China, but to highlight that there remain essential hindrances that both our countries must work on. We face these tariffs because we don’t have a formal trade agreement. Such an agreement would involve various trade-offs, with implications for other sectors of the South African economy; therefore, policymakers will need to be cognizant of these when engaging with China.
Still, the Chinese market remains vital for the growth of our agricultural sector, and it is the second-largest market in the world, accounting for roughly 11% of global agricultural imports in 2023, valued at US$218 billion. The leading suppliers of farm products to China are Brazil, the U.S., Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands, and Malaysia.
South Africa remains a negligible player in the Chinese agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% (US$979 million) of China’s agricultural imports of US$218 billion in 2023. These exports include a variety of fruits, wine, red meat, nuts, maize, soybeans, and wool. Some of these products are subject to various levels of tariffs.
Our goal is to achieve greater access to more fruits, grains, wine, and beef at lower tariff levels. There is room for more ambitious agricultural export efforts.
China’s offer to remove tariffs on various products from the African continent remains a key consideration in these conversations. However, any South African policymaker must remember that our economy is diverse. While I generally write about agriculture here, when engaging with China broadly, one must consider the implications for other sectors of our economy in any conversation involving trade agreements with countries such as China.
I raise this because China, like other countries globally, will eventually look to the world to increase its exports as it encounters friction in the U.S. market. Such diversification efforts may involve the African continent, which, for now, is starting from a generous path of extending zero-tariff access. It is possible that, in the long run, reciprocity will be China’s request, which is a fair point in terms of trade; it cannot be a one-way approach.
If such a possibility exists, then each country will need to approach China’s offer of zero tariffs with a long-term mindset and consideration for other sectors of the economy. In the South African context, while we want agriculture to have deeper access in China, this is one matter we must keep in mind, and possibly an issue our policymakers are contemplating. Balancing the tradeoffs will be tricky.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 22, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
While concerns about deeper access for agricultural products into the U.S. market continue to linger, the activity so far has remained encouraging. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. increased by 26% in the second quarter of 2025, from the same period a year ago, at US$161 million.
It appears that some exporters may have taken advantage of the 90-day pause of the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual during that period.
The composition of the products remains unchanged, primarily consisting of citrus wine, fruit juices, and nuts, among other typical agricultural exports to the U.S.
The fact that South Africa generally has a large fruit harvest also contributed to this enormous increase, which far surpassed the average typical quarterly growth in exports to the U.S., which is about 9%.
Also worth highlighting is that the rise underscores in a way the importance of the U.S. market for some producers, while it remains somewhat smaller from a national perspective. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. were still 4% in the second quarter of 2025.
(South Africa’s agricultural exports to the world market totalled US$3.71 billion in Q2, up 10% from the same period a year ago).
Again, the 4% share of the U.S. in the overall South African agricultural exports is not a small value, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these agricultural exports. These are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices.
Since the start of AGOA, the percentage share of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. has remained at these levels. From now on, a great deal hinges on whether South Africa succeeds in securing favourable trade terms with the U.S. The future performance of the exports to the U.S. will rely mainly on the success of the ongoing conversations between the two countries.
The export diversification we are discussing is not about replacing the U.S. but rather adding to it. We have a growing sector that requires more export markets in the future; thus, this issue of export diversification is more urgent right now.
Our primary focus is to work diligently to maintain our existing markets in the EU, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas. It is also crucial for South Africa to expand market access to some key BRICS countries, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
The emphasis on the BRICS grouping should be on the need to lower import tariffs and address artificial phytosanitary barriers that hinder deeper trade within this grouping. The discussion in BRICS should move beyond the general rhetoric of intentions to meaningful trade arrangements.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 21, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
The challenges that American farmers face, struggling with exports of their soybeans and other crops, show once again the importance of open and fair trade. The current higher U.S. tariffs, along with retaliatory measures by trading partners, pose a problem for everyone.
For example, China, which is not only a significant market for U.S. farmers but also imports roughly half of the world’s traded soybeans, has progressively shifted its suppliers, now sourcing more produce from South America and Latin America.
The renewed trade friction between the countries has only accelerated the trend and left the U.S. farmers in a challenging position with one of their key export markets.
China learned from the first time President Trump levied higher tariffs on them, and their consequent retaliatory tariffs, and started shifting its sources for some of its agricultural products. We now read various articles that sum up the challenge faced by U.S. farmers as:
“Across the US, farmers describe increasingly dire circumstances stemming from a confluence of factors — trade wars, Trump’s immigration crackdown, inflation and high interest rates.”
Clearly, the trade war has not only challenged farmers in terms of export markets, but they also face labour shortages in some regions. The anti-immigration policy has arguably been unsuitable for agriculture, which, to some extent, relies on foreign labour.
Of course, the challenges differ from farmer to farmer and by region. However, it is probably fair to say that so far, the U.S.’s higher tariffs and retaliatory measures by some trade partners are causing more damage to farmers.
There is perhaps a message here for South Africans who care about agriculture, a recognition that the trade friction is causing headaches for all. For us, it presents profound uncertainty for exporting farmers and agribusinesses (to the U.S.), mainly citrus, table grapes, ostrich, wine, and nuts, amongst others. It has also introduced volatility into the global grains and oilseed markets, which in turn affects our grains market.
Equally, the U.S. farmers face economic pain as some of their key markets have retaliated. The core message is that open and fair trade is the only good path for major agricultural producers, and this includes us in South Africa.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 18, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
It would be helpful if the Zimbabwean government could reverse its current ban on maize imports. We understand that it is in place to protect domestic farmers, to some extent, during the months following harvest. But there is growing evidence that the supply is constrained. Some milling firms already face challenges because of the maize shortage.
As we argued a few days ago, Zimbabwe likely doesn’t have sufficient maize supplies for their annual needs. We believe, based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), that Zimbabwe’s maize production is around 1.3 million tonnes. Given the annual consumption of 2.0 million tonnes, they naturally need about 700,000 tonnes to fulfil their needs.
However, we had anticipated that the needs would be more severe by the end of the year and into the first quarter of 2026. We thought the current harvest would carry them for now, albeit with artificially higher prices in the context of a ban on imports of affordable maize from the world market. But it appears that the supplies are constrained already.
Under this context, while it is understandable that the Zimbabwean government wants to protect farmers, it would be beneficial for them to consider lifting the ban now and supporting the households.
We discussed the details of the issue in our AgriView episode last week, which you can watch here.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 16, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
In a year where trade continues to dominate headlines after the U.S. started imposing higher tariffs against its trading partners, we take a look at South Africa’s recent agricultural exports data to gauge the early impact of the changing trade environment.
Encouragingly, the start of the year has remained positive for the sector. After solid export activity in the first quarter of the year, South Africa’s agricultural exports totalled US$3.71 billion in Q2, up 10% from the same period a year ago. This is again a function of both higher volumes of various product exports and better commodity prices.
The products that dominated the exports list in the second quarter of the year were mainly citrus, apples and pears, maize, wine, nuts, fruit juices, dates, pineapples, avocados, grapes, and wool, amongst other products. While there remains a need for further improvement in the efficiency of the ports, there has been a material improvement compared to recent years. Agricultural export activity in the second quarter experienced less friction than in the recent past.
From a regional perspective, the African continent maintained the lion’s share of South Africa’s agricultural exports in the second quarter of 2025, accounting for 40% of the total value. The products leading the exports list in the African continent were maize, maize meal, apples and pears, sugar, fruit juices, wheat, wine, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, amongst other products.
The EU was South Africa’s second-largest agricultural market, accounting for a 22% share. Citrus, apple and pears, dates, pineapples, avocados, guavas, mangos, wine, grapes, and nuts were amongst the primary agricultural products South Africa exported to the EU in the second quarter of 2025.
As a collective, Asia and the Middle East were the third-largest agricultural markets, accounting for 21% of the total agricultural exports in the second quarter of 2025. The exports to this region primarily included citrus, apples and pears, nuts, wool, maize, beef, mutton, wine, berries, and fruit juices, among other products.
The Americas region accounted for 7% of South Africa’s agricultural exports in the second quarter of the year. The main exported products include citrus, fruit juices, wine, nuts, apricots, apples, pears, and grapes. Given ongoing concerns about the higher tariffs South Africa faces in the U.S., it is worth highlighting that some exporters may have taken advantage of the 90-day pause of the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual during that period.
Notably, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. surprisingly increased by 26% in the second quarter of 2025, from the same period a year ago, at US$161 million. The composition of the products hasn’t changed; it is mainly citrus wine, fruit juices, and nuts, amongst other typical agricultural exports to the U.S. The fact that South Africa generally has a large fruit harvest also contributed to this huge increase, which far surpassed the average typical quarterly growth in exports to the U.S., which is about 9%.
Also worth highlighting is that the rise underscores in a way the importance of the U.S. market for some producers, while it remains somewhat smaller from a national perspective. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. were still 4% in the second quarter of 2025 (which is part of the 7% exports to the Americas region we mentioned above).
Again, the 4% share of the U.S. in the overall South African agricultural exports is not a small value, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these agricultural exports. These are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices. Since the start of AGOA, the percentage share of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. has remained at these levels.
From now on, a great deal hinges on whether South Africa succeeds in securing favourable trade terms with the U.S. The rest of the world, including the United Kingdom, accounted for 10% of South African agricultural exports in the second quarter of 2025.
The country also imports various agricultural products. In the second quarter of 2025, South Africa’s agricultural imports totalled US$1.81 billion, a 5% decline year-over-year, according to data from Trade Map. The result is from slightly lower value and volume of major products South Africa imports, such as wheat, palm oil, poultry, and whiskies.
As we have highlighted before, South Africa lacks favourable climatic conditions for growing rice and palm oil and thus relies on imports of these products. Regarding wheat, South Africa imports nearly half of the annual consumption. In the Free State province, which was once one of the country’s major wheat-growing regions, production has declined notably over time due to unfavourable weather conditions and profitability challenges of wheat compared to other crops. Meanwhile, imports account for around 20% of the annual domestic poultry consumption.
Subsequently, when we account for the exports and imports, South Africa’s agriculture sector recorded a trade surplus of US$1.90 billion in the second quarter of 2025, up 29% from the previous year. The higher exports and the decline in imports are the major boost to this better trade surplus.
Policy considerations
In the current environment of heightened geoeconomic tensions, South Africa’s export-oriented agricultural sector must work to maintain its current export markets and expand into new ones. The focus for both policymakers and agribusinesses and organized agriculture should be on the following aspects:
First, South Africa should maintain its focus on improving logistical efficiency. This entails investments in port and rail infrastructure, as well as improving roads in farming towns. Second, South Africa must work diligently to maintain its existing markets in the EU, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas.
Lastly, the South African Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, and the Department of Agriculture should lead the way in expanding exports to current markets and exploring new ones. South Africa should expand market access to some key BRICS countries, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The emphasis on the BRICS grouping should be on the need to lower import tariffs and address artificial phytosanitary barriers that hinder deeper trade within this grouping. The discussion in BRICS should move beyond the general rhetoric of intentions to meaningful trade arrangements.
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