by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 28, 2025 | Agricultural Production
I have long stated that 2025 will likely be a period of uneven recovery in the South African agriculture. From the high-frequency data, we are starting to see mixed fortunes. There is a robust recovery in field crops, vegetables and fruits, thanks to good rains, but the livestock industry continues to struggle with animal diseases.
A few weeks ago, Statistics South Africa released South Africa’s GDP for the second quarter, and the agricultural figures, to an extent, mirrored this challenge. The country’s agricultural gross value added expanded by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. This follows the 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year. The expansion was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture subsectors (vegetables and fruits).
As close observers of the sector are aware, quarterly data tend to be somewhat volatile, influenced by harvest times, crop deliveries, and other factors. It is particularly such issues that the second-quarter growth figure was much softer compared to the start of the year.
We experienced a delay in our summer grain harvest, with more momentum occurring at the start of the third quarter than is typically seen in the second quarter. Indeed, we have ample summer grain and oilseeds, estimated at 19.55 million tonnes (up 26% year-on-year). However, the season was late by roughly a month and a half due to the excessively prolonged summer rains, among other factors.
We have also continued to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease and a few cases of avian influenza, particularly in the second quarter. It was at the end of the second quarter that the foot-and-mouth disease vaccines arrived in South Africa for the start of the vaccination campaign.
However, not all crops were late. The citrus harvest season started in the second quarter, and we have an ample harvest. Farmers moved quickly to take advantage of the tariff pause window in the U.S., which allows for faster harvesting and contributes to the general upside in second-quarter performance. However, it is much softer than at the start of the year.
Also worth noting is that the sector’s sentiment remains optimistic, although it has softened in recent years. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell for a second consecutive quarter by 2 points to 63 in the third quarter of 2025. Despite the slight decline, the current level of the ACI implies that South African agribusinesses remain optimistic about business conditions in the country.
With all these factors considered, the critical point is that we remain convinced that 2025 will likely be a recovery period for South Africa’s agriculture. However, as we have communicated on various occasions, the recovery will be uneven.
The livestock industry continues to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease. Meanwhile, on the upside, the field crops, mainly grains, oilseeds, and sugarcane, are all expected to show a fantastic recovery from last season. We also have an excellent harvest of fruits and vegetables.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 23, 2025 | Agricultural Production
It is encouraging to read in the Business Day, September 23 issue, about the efforts of the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) to advance its cannabis and hemp research, and importantly, the seed breeding of this plant. Globally, the mood is somewhat downbeat on cannabis, but that is no reason to change our focus in South Africa. There are cycles on these things.
The ARC’s previous work on this plan, along with its continuous effort, is essential. For some time, I have been troubled that we talk more about cannabis and hemp in SA, but move very slowly on the legislative aspect that enables the proper cultivation and development of this plant. We have been slow in providing a new and clear regulatory path for this plant, and the licensing price has been somewhat prohibitive for some people.
When we finally progress with research, regulations and a clear policy framework for hemp and cannabis, I still believe that the plant could be a catalyst for revitalising rural communities. It could also create opportunities for cannatourism, particularly in rural areas of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Limpopo. Of course, life won’t drastically change because of this plant, but it will bring some value.
As many countries are focused on this plant, we need to consider ways to distinguish ourselves in South Africa. It may well be that South Africa’s competitive advantage could be built on the back of a transparent and predictable regulatory framework, an open investment regime, robust research and development support, knowledge networks that bring together university researchers, centres of excellence, and other industry players, a product quality and standards authority, and a low-cost licensing regime.
Importantly, we need to consider practical ways to ensure that production and value chains don’t mainly develop in areas that have always been the leading agricultural zones and urban areas with better access to investment.
The communities of the Mpondoland region of the Eastern Cape have been growing this plant in the shadows of the law for many years and should benefit from its liberalisation. But does the government have a clear plan for mobilising investment and value chain development in these regions?
Perhaps the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Limpopo provincial agricultural departments should lead and lobby their national counterparts to refine and craft regulations that encourage investment in these provinces.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 20, 2025 | Agricultural Production
Although there are reports of growing maize shortages in some Zimbabwean mills, the country has not altered its policy at this time. We continue to monitor the conditions.
However, it appears that other Southern African countries likely have some maize supplies to carry them for now, thanks to the recent 2024-25 harvest, which was generally good across the region.
I was looking at South Africa’s weekly maize export activity; typically, there would be decent volumes to the Southern Africa region. But in recent weeks, we have been through relatively quiet weeks in the maize export activity. If we consider last week’s maize export data for South Africa, the country exported a mere 15,164 tonnes of maize, all to the Southern African region.
The recent maize exports placed South Africa’s 2025-26 maize exports at 609,867 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.12 million tonnes. The current marketing year only ends in April 2026. So, we have roughly 1.4 million tonnes of maize for exports in the coming months.
We will likely see more robust export activity later in the year when the supplies in some African countries have depleted, and when Zimbabwe changes its maize policy.
The other crucial regions for South Africa’s maize exports are the Far East region, mainly South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, and Taiwan. These markets are primarily for yellow maize exports, which are for animal feed. White maize exports are typically for the African markets. We have also seen Venezuela appearing on South Africa’s maize exports list, mainly for white maize for human consumption.
We will keep an eye on the Zimbabwean maize market.
And domestically, our attention will also soon shift to the new season, which starts next month. The weather forecasts remain favourable for another excellent agricultural season. We will have more to say on that in the coming weeks.
Additional notes: We talk about the exports because South Africa had a robust maize harvest. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is estimated at 15.80 million tonnes, a 23% increase year-on-year, primarily due to expected annual yield improvements. (The 2024-25 production year corresponds with the 2025-26 marketing year).
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 15, 2025 | Agricultural Production
The South African livestock and poultry industry faces various challenges that include animal disease and stock theft, among other issues. The one positive development in recent months has been the notable decline in the feed prices.
I was looking at yellow maize prices for today, September 15, and they remain at a level around R3,600 per tonne, which is roughly 7% down from a year ago. Soybeans, another key input in feed, are priced around R7,300 per tonne, which is down approximately 13% from a year ago.
The decline in prices mirrors the improvement in the domestic harvest in the 2024-25 production season. We may likely have entered a period of reasonably affordable feed prices. The early views about the 2025-26 agricultural season, which starts next month, October, also point to optimism and possible favourable rainfall.
Such a season would naturally deliver a better harvest, keeping feed prices in check for some time. Of course, it is too early to tell. However, I believe it is essential to highlight at least one point of optimism regarding the input costs for the livestock and poultry industries in South Africa.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 2, 2025 | Agricultural Production
From next month, October, our attention will shift to the new summer grain production season. We will focus more on the weather conditions, field work on the farms, and input costs. But until that time, it is valuable to keep a close eye on the current 2024-25 production season. The crop is a bit later this year compared to usual due to late plantings and an extended rainfall period.
It is for this reason that we have consistently kept an eye on production prospects and their implications for food price inflation. Fortunately, the picture continues to improve and now looks more optimistic than in previous reports. For example, the data released at the end of August by the Crop Estimates Committee show that South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest is up by 4% from the July 2025 estimate to an expected 19.55 million tonnes. Compared to the previous season, this is a 26% year-on-year increase. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
Indeed, the base effects contributed significantly to the massive percentage annual jump. Remember, we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest.
This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.
A closer look at the data reveals that the monthly upward revisions were primarily in maize (+5%), dry beans (+16%) and soybeans (+1%). Meanwhile, the rest of the other crops were roughly unchanged from the previous month.
More specifically, South Africa’s maize harvest is now forecast at 15.80 million tonnes, which is 23% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.75 million tonnes, representing a 49% year-over-year increase. Sunflower seeds are up 12% from the last season and are estimated at 708,300 tonnes.
The groundnut harvest is estimated at 61,389 tonnes (up 18% y/y), sorghum production is estimated at 137,970 tonnes (up 41% y/y), and the dry beans harvest is at 86,407 tonnes (up 71%).
Overall, South Africa is experiencing a recovery season for its grain and oilseed production, although some areas may face quality challenges, particularly with white maize. Still, the quality issues do not fundamentally alter the available volume for milling acceptability or food supplies, although they may weigh on farmers’ profitability.
We continue to see the benefit of the ample harvest in the softening commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 27, 2025 | Agricultural Production
In two months, farmers across South Africa will begin tilling the land for the 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed season. However, for now, we still have our eyes on the 2024-25 season, which is nearing its end.
This afternoon, on August 27, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee increased the country’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds production estimate by 4% from last month, to 19.55 million tonnes.
This estimate comprises maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts (peanuts), sorghum, and dry beans. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings. The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest.
This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.
If I were to highlight one crop to underscore my point about food inflation, it would be maize. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is now forecast at 15.80 million tonnes, which is 23% higher than the 2023-24 season’s crop.
Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
In essence, we are in another year of abundance in grain production, despite the quality issues in the white maize and sunflower seed regions.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 25, 2025 | Agricultural Production
Tomorrow, August 27, South Africa’s Crop Estimate Committee will release its first production estimate for the 2025-26 winter crop season. The season has generally been fair, with favourable rainfall in much of the Western Cape, a province that accounts for more than two-thirds of South Africa’s winter crops.
In other provinces, the winter crops are mainly produced under irrigation, and the favourable summer rains helped to improve the dam levels, enabling irrigation.
One of the crops I will be watching closely is canola. While for farmers in some regions of the Western Cape, canola may not be as profitable this year because of higher input costs, it could reach a new record level in terms of output.
The big challenge for farmers in some areas of the Western Cape this year was the infestation of snails in the early stages of the season, forcing farmers to replant the crop, thus increasing the input costs.
Currently, we know that farmers planted 164,900 hectares, down 0.5% from the previous season. This area may also be revised when we receive the new data tomorrow.
But if we assume that it holds, the relatively favourable weather conditions could still bring a bigger crop than the last season. For example, if we apply a five-year average yield of 1.89 tonnes per hectare on the area of 164,900 hectares, South Africa could harvest 311,661 tonnes of canola, representing an 8% increase from the previous season.
This would be a fresh record, reinforcing South Africa’s position as a relatively new exporter of canola products. South Africa is now a net canola exporter, having recently exported to countries such as Germany and Belgium.
As I have written recently, canola is a relatively new crop in South Africa, but it remains a success story. Since South African farmers planted the crop commercially on 17,000 hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 164,900 hectares in the 2025-26 season.
Over the years, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings has been a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake.
There has been a switch from traditional winter wheat and barley growing areas to canola because of the firm demand and the price competitiveness. Canola is a winter crop, principally planted in the Western Cape, a winter rainfall region in South Africa.
Anyways, we will know more tomorrow where things are, but I wanted to put it out that I remain an optimist.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 11, 2025 | Agricultural Production
The agricultural discussions surrounding the Western Cape province of South Africa have primarily focused on the risks presented by the U.S. trade policy shifts in recent months.
This is understandable, as the province has greater exposure to the U.S. market relative to other provinces, mainly through its exports of citrus, wine, table grapes, and ostrich products, among others. Securing better market access in the U.S. with relatively low tariffs is key to maintaining the competitiveness of these industries in that market.
Still, some encouraging developments in the province’s agriculture are worth highlighting, primarily in winter crop production. While it is still early to form a firm view, it seems likely that South Africa will have a decent winter crop season, primarily boosted by the Western Cape’s harvest.
At the start of the 2025-26 winter crop season, there was some uncertainty about the weather outlook, and the relatively higher input costs also added pressure to the farmers.
However, the weather turned out to be a positive surprise, presenting favourable rainfall across most farming regions of the Western Cape. This province accounts for more than two-thirds of South Africa’s winter crop production. The favourable rains of the past weeks have enhanced crop growing conditions, providing us with some optimism about the province’s potential winter crop harvest.
While earlier weather forecasts from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) had signalled a more challenging environment, the reality has been positive, with continuous rains. For example, at the start of July 2025, the SAWS stated that:
“During Late winter and early spring, the south-western parts of the country are still expected to receive below-normal rainfall.”
Fortunately, the reality for many winter crop-producing regions of the Western Cape was that the weather turned out positively, delivering favourable rainfall that supports crop-growing conditions. Favourable rain for the coming months remains critical for maintaining crop-growing conditions through to maturity.
In other winter crop-growing regions of the country, the longer-than-usual summer rainfall period improved soil moisture and dam levels, all of which are beneficial to winter crops, especially in irrigation regions. There are sufficient water supplies to support the crop through the season.
While some input product prices were somewhat elevated when the season started, farmers maintained optimism about the area they would plant. For example, at the end of July 2025, the Crop Estimates Committee reported that the 2025-26 winter crop farmers’ plantings are at 824,120 hectares, up 1% from the previous season. This comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats, and sweet lupines.
A closer look at the major crops reveals some minor deviations, with all crop area plantings increasing, except for barley, which is declining. These data included all provinces, with the Western Cape accounting for the largest share.
If we look back at the specifics, focusing mainly on the major winter crops, farmers planted the 2025-26 wheat crop on 512,500 hectares, up 1% from the previous season. If we assume relatively favourable weather conditions going forward, as in the past few months, and a decent yield of 3.97 tonnes per hectare, which aligns with the five-year average, South Africa’s wheat harvest would be 2.03 million tonnes. This would be up 5% from the 2024-25 production season.
In the case of canola, farmers planted 164,900 hectares, down 1% from the previous season. Similarly, if we apply a five-year average yield of 1.89 tonnes per hectare, South Africa could harvest 311,661 tonnes, representing a 7% increase from the previous season.
There is also broad optimism about the prospects for oats production.
Unlike other crops, farmers slashed the barley plantings by 5% to 95,700 hectares in the 2025-26 season. If we apply a five-year average yield of 3.58 tonnes per hectare to barley, we will have a harvest possibility of 342,606 tonnes, down 8% from the previous season.
In essence, while the Western Cape’s farming economy faces heightened uncertainty regarding the impact of U.S. trade policy on South Africa, there remain industries that are on a promising path.
That said, the farmers won’t necessarily be in a far better financial position even if the weather conditions remain favourable. The farmers in the province faced higher input costs, as some regions struggled with snail infestations and had to replant, further increasing production costs. Still, a decent winter crop will help in the current environment.
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