by Wandile Sihlobo | Dec 5, 2025 | Agricultural Machinery
We have just received South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales data for November 2025 from the South African Agricultural Machinery Association. These data are one crucial point clear: we are ending 2025 on a strong note in the agricultural machinery industry. We now have data for the 11 months of 2025. Cumulative tractor sales are 7,176 units, up 19% year-on-year.
The combine harvesters sales for the 11 months are at 200 units, up by 3%. The sales have generally been robust throughout the year, with combine harvesters only cooling in recent months. But the broad picture for the year will be a period of recovery.
Amongst other things, the increase in agricultural machinery sales primarily reflects the financial gains from the better 2024-25 agricultural season, particularly in field crops, horticulture, and wine grape harvests, which were mainly supported by favourable weather conditions.
Moreover, the strong tractor sales signal farmers’ optimism about the 2025-26 agricultural season, which has recently started.
The 2025-26 season will likely deliver another year of ample harvests, as La Niña rains are expected to support production across various agricultural subsectors. In the case of summer grains and oilseeds, farmers intend to plant 4.1 million hectares in the 2025-26 season, up 1% from the previous year. We will likely see decent plantings in other crops.
We now have comfort that South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales will be strong in 2025, resembling the gains in agriculture.
In addition to the improved agricultural production conditions for the 2024-25 season and the promising prospects for the new 2025-26 season, interest rates have eased somewhat from last year’s levels, and the affordable cost of capital supports sales.
Most importantly, we don’t see the strong sales as a matter of just 2025. We are optimistic that we can continue on this path through 2026, as the cost of capital remains affordable and the sector is likely to deliver another year of ample harvests.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Nov 7, 2025 | Agricultural Machinery
If one had any doubts about South African farmers’ optimism about the 2025-26 summer crop planting intentions, the robust tractor sales should provide additional comfort.
The farmers intend to plant 4.1 million hectares, up by 1% from the 20242-5 season. However, these are still early days, and many factors could impact the plantings.
Still, the fact that the weather outlook is positive, with La Niña rain prospects, and the farmers’ continuous effort to buy tractors, suggests that we may see these plantings materialise.
The data recently released by the South African Agricultural Machinery Association shows that tractor sales increased by 12% year-over-year (y/y) in October 2025, with 857 units sold.
The increase in agricultural machinery sales primarily reflects improved financial gains from the 2024-25 agricultural season, particularly in field crops, horticulture, and wine grape harvests, which were supported mainly by favourable weather conditions.
Remember, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds are at 20.08 million tonnes (up 30% year-on-year). This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
The various fruits and vegetables also showed decent harvests. For example, South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% y/y to 2.09 million tonnes. Additionally, South Africa’s wine grape harvest was 1.244 million tonnes, representing an 11% increase from the previous year.
Importantly, the strong tractor sales signal farmers’ optimism about the 2025-26 agricultural season, which has recently started.
In the case of summer grains and oilseeds, this is likely to be another favourable season, as there are prospects of La Niña rains, which should support production conditions across various subsectors of agriculture (not just grains and oilseeds that I highlighted).
So, when one sees news about the robust tractor sales, the key message is that we are in another favourable agricultural season, and the sales are a key indicator of such optimism.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 3, 2025 | Agricultural Machinery
When the farming sector is in better condition, the interlinked industries such as machinery suppliers also benefit. We are ending this particular week on a positive note regarding the trend in South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales.
In fact, sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025 and are likely to continue at this encouraging pace throughout the year. More specifically, the tractor sales have increased for the past nine consecutive months, while combine harvester sales have only cooled in the last four months, having started on a solid momentum.
The recent data for September 2025 also paints a mixed picture. For example, the tractor sales are up 15% y/y, with 758 units sold.
However, the combine harvester sales were down 53%, with eight units sold. The soft sales in combine harvester sales are not a significant concern, given the higher volume of sales in the past few months. Importantly, the cumulative sales of combine harvesters for the first eight months of 2025 are up 17% from the corresponding period in 2024, with 180 units sold.
The increase in agricultural machinery sales primarily reflects the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 field crop, horticulture, and wine grape harvest, supported by the favourable weather conditions. It also signals optimism about the season ahead.
Considering the 2024-25 season, which we are ending, the production figures look excellent across the board. For example, (1) the Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds harvest at 19.94 million tonnes, up 28% y/y. (2) South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% y/y to 2.09 million tonnes. (3) South Africa’s wine grape harvest was 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from 2024. (4) The South African Table Grape Industry has also posted some upbeat production figures, and there are encouraging production data from citrus, various fruits, and vegetables.
In essence, we expect South Africa’s agricultural machinery to remain strong this year. In addition to the better agricultural production conditions, the interest rates have eased somewhat from last year’s levels. Also worth noting is that some farmers may continue with machinery replacement in the coming months, which will ultimately support sales.
Most notably, there is also optimism about the upcoming 2025-26 season, which promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 5, 2025 | Agricultural Machinery
One of the interlinked industries that tends to benefit when the agricultural sector is thriving is the agricultural machinery industry. This year is no different; South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025. I suspect the sales are likely to continue at this encouraging pace.
If we consider the details, the tractor sales have increased for the past eight consecutive months, while the combine harvester sales only cooled in the recent few months, having started on solid momentum.
The recent data for August also paints a mixed picture. For example, the tractor sales are up 22% y/y, with 700 units sold. Meanwhile, the combine harvester sales were flat, with five units sold. The soft sales in combine harvester sales are not a significant concern given the higher volume of sales in the past few months.
The increase in agricultural machinery sales primarily reflects the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 field crop, horticulture, and wine grape harvest, supported by the favourable weather conditions. The sentiment in the sector is also reasonably optimistic, with the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index at 63 points in the third quarter, which is well above the 50-neutral mark.
We expect South Africa’s agricultural machinery to remain strong throughout the year. In addition to the better agricultural production conditions, the interest rates have eased somewhat from last year’s levels.
Also worth noting is that some farmers may continue with machinery replacement in the coming months, which ultimately supports the sales.
Ultimately, the machinery industry is benefiting from the favourable agricultural conditions in South Africa.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Aug 8, 2025 | Agricultural Machinery
We ended this week with a positive data release on South Africa’s agriculture, a monthly update of tractor sales. I often pay attention to this data because it signals both the health of the sector and what we can expect in the season ahead.
Since the start of the year, the tractor sales have generally been solid, having increased for the past seven consecutive months. In July 2025, the tractor sales are up 34% year-on-year, with 753 units sold.
Broadly, the strong tractor sales primarily reflect the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 field crop, horticulture, and wine grape harvest, supported by the favourable weather conditions. For example;
- The Crop Estimates Committee forecasts the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds harvest at 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year).
- South African sugar production for the 2024-25 production season is forecast to recover by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes.
- South Africa’s wine grape harvest was 1.244 million tonnes, an 11% recovery from the exceptionally poor harvest of 2024.
- The South African Table Grape Industry has also posted some upbeat production figures, indicating that the 2024-25 total harvest inspected is 78.9 million cartons, 4% higher year-on-year.
- We also see encouraging production data from citrus, various fruits, and vegetables.
- The 2025-26 winter crop plantings are also fairly decent.
- Significantly, the base effects following weak sales in 2024 also contributed to the stronger annual recovery in sales.
We expect South Africa’s agricultural machinery to remain strong this year. In addition to the better agricultural production conditions, the interest rates have eased somewhat from last year’s levels. Also worth noting is that some farmers may continue with machinery replacement in the coming months, which ultimately supports the sales.
Another critical point to keep in mind is that we are now two months away from the start of the 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed production season. Therefore, the stronger tractor sales also signal some optimism about the season ahead.
Indeed, the weather outlook is relatively optimistic, promising a regular rainy season, which would be excellent for the agricultural season.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Jun 7, 2025 | Agricultural Machinery
We continue to see encouraging sales of agricultural machinery in South Africa. For example, tractor sales increased for the fifth consecutive month, up 12% year-on-year in May 2025, with 635 units sold.
The sales of combine harvesters were even more encouraging, up 64% year-over-year in May, with 41 units sold. The increase in sales primarily reflects the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 crop and horticulture harvest, driven by favourable weather conditions and base effects following weak sales in 2024.
Indeed, the heavy rains in April have caused concerns about the crop quality, and we are seeing challenges in a few areas.
Still, there remains optimism about the yields, which supports the robust sales. For example, the Crop Estimates Committee forecasts South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production at 17.98 million tonnes, 16% higher than the 2023-24 production season, representing a decent recovery from drought.
If we reflect briefly on the past few years’ performance, it is fair to say that the poor agricultural machinery sales performance in 2024 resulted from three major factors.
First, South Africa’s agricultural sector had higher machinery sales between 2020 and 2023. Improved farmers’ incomes led to higher sales, driven by an ample harvest and rising commodity prices. Thus, there was bound to be some correction, leading to a moderation in sales in 2024.
Second, we struggled with a mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season, which impacted farmers’ fortunes and negatively affected sales performance.
Lastly, the relatively higher interest rates for much of 2024 added to the economic pressures on the sector, leading to poor sales.
This year, however, things are different, as evidenced by the sales for the first five months. Interest rates have eased somewhat from last year’s levels, although uncertainty remains about the path ahead, given the renewed risks to the global economy.
Also, agricultural production conditions are favourable across most commodities. Also worth noting is that some farmers may start with machinery replacement in the coming months. All this will support the sales of tractors and combine harvesters.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | May 30, 2025 | Agricultural Machinery
I know that the regular readers of this page are aware that South Africa’s agriculture is broadly thriving, notwithstanding the current challenges of biosecurity, failing municipalities, and poor rural roads, amongst other issues. But we have generally made progress over time as a sector.
Thus, when I saw this chart in the newsletter by the South African Agricultural Machinery Association, I thought it was important to highlight it, as it illustrates the spending by farmers on tractors over time—a reflection of the farmers’ belief in agriculture and the importance of technology in sustaining their operations. It can be argued that broader machinery sales follow a similar pattern.
Of course, the increase is both a pricing issue and, importantly, a volume issue. We are importers of agricultural machinery, and the weakening domestic currency can, at times, contribute to increased prices. Still, what we can’t deny is that farmers are spending on buying more machinery, which is key for improving farm efficiencies.
We generally discuss genetics and improved seed cultivars, which are at the heart of productivity. Still, the machinery industry also plays a vital role in sustaining South African agriculture and keeping it quite competitive.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | May 19, 2025 | Agricultural Machinery
With the optimism we see in the sector, and anecdotally at NAMPO engagements, one can only assume that associated industries such as the farming machinery will see a further uptick in the coming months. After all, we often hear that big deals are sometimes made at NAMPO, and farmers get to see the excellent and new equipment from the various suppliers.
We will now be watching the monthly data closely in the coming months. For the first quarter of the year, the figures have been encouraging. For example, tractor sales increased for the fourth consecutive month, up 5% year-on-year in April 2025, with 527 units sold. The combine harvesters’ sales were even more encouraging, up 77% year-on-year in April, with 46 units sold.
As we stated in these pages recently, the substantial increase in sales primarily reflects the sector’s positive sentiment about the 2024-25 crop and horticulture harvest due to favourable weather conditions and the base effects, given the weak sales in 2024.
Indeed, the heavy rains in April have caused concerns about the crop quality. Still, there remains optimism about the yields, which supports the robust sales. The Crop Estimates Committee forecasts South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production at 18.01 million tonnes, 16% higher than the 2023-24 production season, representing a decent recovery from drought.
If we reflect briefly on the past few years’ performance, it is fair to say that the poor agricultural machinery sales performance in 2024 resulted from three major factors. First, South Africa’s agricultural sector had higher machinery sales between 2020 and 2023. Improved farmers’ incomes supported higher sales due to an ample harvest and higher commodity prices. Thus, there was bound to be some correction, leading to a moderation in sales in 2024. Second, we struggled with a mid-summer drought in the 2023-24 season, weighing on farmers’ fortunes and worsening sales performance. Lastly, the relatively higher interest rates for much of 2024 added to the economic pressures on the sector, leading to poor sales.
This year, however, things are different, as sales in the first quarter have already shown. The interest rates have eased somewhat from last year’s levels, although there remains uncertainty about the path ahead given the renewed risks to the global economy.
Also, agricultural production conditions are favourable across most commodities. Also worth noting is that some farmers may start with machinery replacement in the coming months. All this will support the sales of tractors and combine harvesters. Of course, we also lean on the generally improved sentiment in the sector, as illustrated by the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI), which increased in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the end of last year.
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