The recent rains have been widespread across South Africa, benefiting agricultural activity.
In the summer grains and oilseeds regions, the farmers have been able to plant a sizable area, and some are at the tail end of the planting. There is no panic, and we should be able to meet the expected area of 4.5 million hectares, up 1% from the 2024-25 season.
Some regions are excessively wet, such as KwaZulu-Natal and the northern Eastern Cape. Still, there are no concerns that this would negatively affect crops.
The rains have also benefited the grazing veld, which is beneficial to the livestock industry. South Africa’s fruits and vegetables are all irrigated, which means higher dam levels will help throughout the winter season.
Moreover, frequent rains also mean less irrigation in some areas than usual, which saves energy costs.
The Western Cape is a winter-rainfall area; therefore, we should not be alarmed by the low soil moisture there. They will start receiving nice rains around the end of April.
What remains worrying is the southern Eastern Cape, which hasn’t received much rain at all. We will closely monitor conditions in these regions going forward.
The Eastern Cape is a summer rainfall area, and the southern region should ideally be receiving more rain now. What remains comforting is that the dam levels are healthy and are helping with irrigation for fruit crops in these regions.
Overall, the 2025-26 agricultural season is expected to be favourable for South Africa.
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Many South Africans enjoyed their cherries in recent months. In fact, during the December 2025 holidays, I noticed many people were excited about the availability of cherries in their local stores and their reasonable prices. We will likely continue to see more cherries in our stores when they are in season in the coming years.
South Africa has been increasing its cherry production due to strong domestic and global demand. For example, in 2012, South Africa had 185 hectares of cherry plantings, and by 2024, the area had increased to 819 hectares, according to data from Hortgro, a horticulture producers organisation.
South Africa’s cherry production in 2025 was at a record 3,006 tonnes. About 58% of cherries are exported, 28% sold on the local market, and the rest are processed. Moreover, about 60% of South African cherries were exported to the United Kingdom, 18% to the EU and 12% to the Middle East. As production increases, we will likely be listing cherries more often in our export conversations as the industry seeks to broaden its export markets to countries such as China.
Still, there will likely remain sufficient supplies for the local markets. There is great enthusiasm in SA about cherries, and the various social media posts in December 2025 are a testament to this local vibrancy.
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We will get a reprieve on fuel prices from today, January 7, 2026. The diesel price (0.05% wholesale inland) could decline by between R1.37 and R1.50 a litre, while the petrol price (95 ULP inland) could fall by 66 cents per litre.
The relatively stronger ZAR/USD, combined with a reasonably lower oil price for much of the month, are the major driver of the decline in fuel prices.
This is a welcome development and bodes well for the South African agricultural sector. We are still in a period of high fuel consumption in South Africa’s agriculture. The planting season for summer grains and oilseed is on its tail end. Fuel accounts for a notable share of grain farmers’ input costs, about 13%.
Beyond the farmers, agribusinesses will also benefit from lower costs, particularly in logistics. It is worth noting that roughly 81% of maize, 76% of wheat and 69% of soybeans in South Africa are transported by road.
On average, 75% of national grains and oilseeds are transported by road, as is a substantial share of other agricultural products.
Overall, lower fuel prices are a welcome development that supports the agricultural sector and, ultimately, moderates food prices.
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2025 was a generally good year for South Africa’s agriculture and the broader Southern Africa farming sector. We emerged from a drought and heatwave in 2024 and saw excellent harvests of crops, fruits, and vegetables. Indeed, some countries in the region remained net importers of grains and other agricultural products from South Africa and the rest of the world. But import needs were much lower than a year earlier, during a drought.
In South Africa specifically, the broad agricultural sector recovery poses a challenge, however. Foot-and-mouth disease has remained a prominent feature of our cattle industry, imposing high costs on farming businesses. It was only at the end of the year that the government announced its intention to vaccinate the 12.1 million cattle in the national herd. The logistics of this effort and the sourcing of the vaccines remain significant challenges. In a few days from now, when we all emerge from our holiday places, this will likely be one of the preoccupations of the farming sector of South Africa.
We have private-sector companies that, over time, could produce vaccines, and national entities, such as the Agricultural Research Council and Onderstepoort Biological Products, that must be rejuvenated to play this role. So far, we have relied on Botswana to supply us with foot-and-mouth disease vaccines. But the Botswana supply won’t be sufficient, and there are concerns about the vaccine’s potency.
This cattle industry challenge led to what I have termed “a mixed recovery” in South Africa’s agriculture in 2025. The livestock industry is also critical, accounting for roughly half of South Africa’s farming fortunes. Therefore, when the subsector struggles, the impact is felt across the board.
Beyond the cattle industry, other subsectors did well and delivered excellent harvests. It is for this reason that in the first three quarters of 2025, South Africa’s agricultural exports amounted to US$11.7 billion, up 10% year-on-year. When we receive the full-year 2025 data, I suspect that South Africa’s agricultural exports would have exceeded US$13.7 billion in 2024 and possibly crossed US$14 billion. The volumes of exports and prices were generally healthy.
These healthy farming fortunes also extended to the interlinked industries. For example, we have South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales data for the 11 months of 2025. Cumulative tractor sales are 7,176 units, up 19% year-on-year. The combine harvesters’ sales for the 11 months are at 200 units, up by 3%. The sales have generally been robust throughout the year, with combine harvesters only cooling in recent months.
The one challenge that we saw emerge at the end of 2025, which will likely be part of conversations in 2026, is the differing views on trade policy. As the year drew to a close, I saw news from Botswana that they were banning the import of various vegetables from South Africa. Moreover, a few days before Christmas, Mozambique went further in the same direction. Namibia went so far as to ban imports of some poultry products from South Africa.
These are not new issues in this region. We have seen them play out before, and our hope from the start of 2025 was that the new leaders in some countries would embrace the regional spirit and not attempt to limit South Africa’s participation in their markets. What makes this worse is that, for some of the countries, we are part of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), which was formed in 1910 and comprises Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa. Among other things, this bloc ensures the free exchange of goods with no tariffs. Now that these countries continue this practice, one wonders whether South Africa should remain part of SACU? This will be a discussion point in 2026.
Aside from the regional issues, being part of SACU also slows South Africa’s ambition to broaden its exports and sign free trade agreements with other countries. In every encounter, South Africa must play by the rules and secure the backing of other SACU members. But if the other SACU members have no interest in rules, why should South Africa care?
Beyond these issues, at a production level, we have continued to receive the excellent La Niña rains, which have supported crop conditions and the grazing veld across the country. Thus, I believe that we enter 2026 with far better prospects of a continuous and broad recovery from the already better conditions of 2025. The favourable rains we see here at home are also a reality in some countries in the region, supporting regional agricultural prospects in 2026.
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On December 28, 2025, we drove across various regions of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), offering an opportunity to view agricultural conditions from a distance. Like most regions of South Africa, the vegetation and grazing veld look green and lush. This helps the livestock industry, and KZN is one of South Africa’s central dairy-producing provinces, with a substantial number of livestock among subsistence farmers.
The better grazing veld will help a great deal. For dairy and beef producers, the better veld comes at a time when feed prices are more affordable, with yellow maize prices generally 30% lower than a year ago because of South Africa’s ample harvest in the 2024-25 season. We had the second-largest maize harvest on record in South Africa in the 2024-25 season, at about 16.44 million tonnes, up 28% year-on-year, driven by favourable rains.
The soybean prices, which are also another vital feed, especially for those in poultry production, are down by roughly 26% from a year ago, also because of a large domestic harvest. South Africa had its record soybean harvest in the 2024-25 season, about 2.77 million tonnes.
Of course, this glimpse of positivity doesn’t begin to mask the significant challenge that cattle farmers in KZN, and much of South Africa, face: foot-and-mouth disease. The challenge is particularly acute in the dairy sector, especially in the dairy area, the Midlands region of KwaZulu-Natal.
The central issue on farmers’ minds in the region is the availability of vaccines and the speed at which they can be delivered. This is an area that the leadership at the Department of Agriculture must continue to press on. The focus should be on making sure we have access to vaccines, not just from Botswana, but also from other sources such as Turkey.
Beyond vaccine imports, the point I made previously about South Africa rejuvenating its foot-and-mouth vaccine production capability remains vital. This should not just be the state-owned entities, the Agricultural Research Council and Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP), but also the private entities that have the capacity. We need to vaccinate a herd of roughly 12.1 million cattle in this country several times.
Back to KZN, in terms of crop farming, the province, like the rest of South Africa, received excessive rainfall across various regions. Still, farmers have managed to plant, and the crops look promising across multiple areas, mainly maize, soybeans, and sugarcane. Of course, the horticulture fields look great as well.
In the households we saw across the various villages, people’s gardens looked great, and it appears the rains have been broadly beneficial.
Of course, we will have a clearer sense of the area farmers planted to summer grains and oilseeds for the 2025-26 season in February 2026, when the Crop Estimates Committee releases the data. But from what we continue to observe as we drive around during this summer holiday period, the agricultural activity looks promising.
These La Niña rains have delayed plantings in other regions of the country. Still, I generally remain hopeful that farmers will continue to use the windows of warm weather to advance plantings in areas that haven’t yet planted. We have until mid-January 2026 to push planting.
Indeed, January is not an ideal time, and it is later than usual. But we have had late plantings before and still managed to get a good crop. In fact, the very excellent harvest of the 2024-25 season in maize and soybeans that I mentioned above was roughly a month and a half behind its typical schedule.
Therefore, I am not concerned for now and remain upbeat that we could still have a better harvest in the 2025-26 season. What I saw in the various regions of KZN gives some comfort. But vaccination for the cattle industry is critically needed.
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We continue to receive encouraging reports on the prospects for La Niña-induced rainfall during the 2025-26 summer season. Most regions of the country have received excellent rain since the start of October. Soil moisture has improved notably across various areas of the country.
The latest forecasts from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University (IRI) indicate a high likelihood of La Niña-induced rains continuing through to February 2026. This period covers the planting through to the flowering of the summer crop, which are stages that require more moisture for development. After the flowering period, warmer, sunnier weather typically helps with crop maturation.
Better rainfall prospects are beneficial not only to field crops but also to the livestock and horticulture subsectors. For the livestock subsector, improvements in the grazing veld, at a time when feed prices are also falling, are a welcome development, as the industry has struggled with financial pressures due to foot-and-mouth disease.
Moreover, the start of vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease on the 12 million head of cattle nationwide (with 7.2 million in commercial herds) suggests the industry may finally be entering a recovery period. Still, it is too early, and the vaccination process will be a major logistical undertaking, in addition to the challenge of securing sufficient vaccines.
Still, the fact that we now have a clearer direction for the country provides some comfort. What will also be vital from now on is the inclusion of domestic private labs in vaccine manufacturing, rather than relying solely on imports and the revival of state-owned institutions.
In the horticulture subsector, rainy weather reduces the irrigation period and helps save on energy costs somewhat. Importantly, having the dam levels recover across the major fruit and vegetable-producing areas helps ensure that, even as we approach the winter season in 2026, field activities will continue normally with better soil moisture and irrigation. These favourable weather conditions have set the country up for excellent fruit and vegetable yields going into 2026.
Still, on the profitability side, a lot will depend on the success of export activity. In 2025, the ports performed better, particularly in the first three quarters of the year, helping to keep exports robust. For example, the cumulative value of agricultural exports for the first three quarters of the year is US$11.7 billion, representing a 10% increase from the corresponding period in 2024.
Although there is still room for improvement in port efficiency, we have witnessed notable gains compared to recent months despite the U.S.’s implementation of tariffs. This has supported export activity and illustrates the gains from ongoing policy reforms in South Africa’s network industries.
Separately, we are now in another busy export period for table grapes, and Transnet’s continued efforts and focus on supporting exports will help ensure we end 2025 on a positive footing and start 2026 on a strong path.
A sharper focus by Transnet is needed even more now, as the Western Cape, a major table grape export port, has recently experienced challenging wind conditions. Therefore, ensuring there is sufficient staff on site to push exports, even in challenging weather, is more crucial. Such effort and focus by Transnet and other logistics organizations will be needed through the stone fruit export season into 2026.
In field crops, planting of grains and oilseeds is underway. The farmers are optimistic and aiming to plant 4.5 million hectares, up 1% from the 2024-25 season. The favourable weather prospects may help ensure that South Africa gets an even bigger harvest than the 20.21 million tonnes in the 2024-25 production season (already up 30% from the previous year).
In essence, the weather outlook remains favourable for South Africa’s agriculture going into the 2025-26 summer season. Interventions through livestock vaccination and a stronger focus on improving port efficiency will help ensure widespread gains in the sector, supporting solid growth in 2026.
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The Business Day has a story today about “Fake honey” detections in some informal, non-franchise outlets of South Africa. This reminded me of the observations I once made back in June 2018.
What follows are observations I made on the 27th of June in 2018, typing a blog from the Pietermaritzburg Airport. Here goes:
A few days ago, I tweeted about honey adulteration, which means producing fake honey with sugar or other ingredients. At the time, I suspected the issue would be linked only to foreign products.
Well, turns out we also have bad guys here in South Africa. How do I know this? From conversations with a couple of beekeepers in Howick, KwaZulu-Natal province.
Today, I went on a honey value-chain outreach program there, and conversations with a couple of beekeepers suggested that adulteration is not only an issue of imported products but has been happening in the country for some time.
Sadly, there is no enforcement, self-regulatory, or ethical trade body to address the issue at the moment — the complaints to regulators have thus far landed on deaf ears.
This, of course, could be confusing for consumers; if the adulterated honey is labelled as “pure honey”, what does a consumer do? (I asked the beekeepers). The best indicator at the moment is “price” — I know this is not the best barometer.
Anyways, on average, a 500-gram bottle of pure South African honey is about R65 or more on the shelf. The adulterated honey often sells at a far lower price than this. In addition, consumers could look to trust larger brands that have a reputation to protect, or to artisanal products where they know the beekeeper.
This pricing issue is not only an indicator for consumers but also has implications for the industry’s sustainability, most importantly for potential new entrants. The pure honey value chain is a bit complex and labour-intensive, which increases input costs.
Then, competition with lower-priced ‘adulterated honey’ would squeeze real beekeepers and also lessen the potential for new entrants.
Honey adulteration could also have health implications, as some consumers favour pure honey for its health benefits.
Enough about my ranting — the key issues that were raised by the beekeepers in Howick today were:
Adulteration (as discussed above)
Honey labelling (more than 3 countries in one bottle, with no specifications of the amount from each country, and a lack of compliance with any legal requirements).
The ‘mixed labelling’ issue on honey products should not be taken lightly, especially given the recent upsurge of ‘natural honey’ imports into South Africa.
South Africa’s honey imports increased from 476 tonnes in 2001 to 4,206 tonnes in 2017.
This is mainly due to steady domestic demand, coupled with a decline in domestic honey production, currently estimated at 2000 tonnes, against consumption of 5,000 tonnes per annum, according to industry experts.
But it is worth noting that, on average, 76% of South Africa’s ‘natural honey’ imports came from China over the past 17 years.
I mention this because the Chinese honey has, in the past, dominated the headlines, but not in a good way. In 2014, food24.com ran an article which highlighted that Chinese farmers were caught producing counterfeit honey.
Europe had similar experiences with imported honey, and the challenge grew to such an extent that in 2014, European lawmakers ranked honey 6th on a list of 10 products most at risk of food fraud.
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He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
