As we begin the 2025-26 summer season, the evolving weather conditions will remain a central focus in South Africa’s agriculture. We are in another year of La Niña, a weather phenomenon that typically brings above-normal rainfall in much of the country and the Southern Africa region.
The 2024-25 season was another La Niña season, and with its heavy rains, we experienced challenges in various areas of the country. Still, the overall picture was positive. We managed to get an excellent fruit and vegetable harvest. The sugar cane production recovered, and the grains and oilseeds production was also robust. It is due to such an exceptional harvest that you have seen me write about 2025 as a season of recovery in South Africa’s agriculture, albeit an uneven one, because of the foot and mouth disease in cattle farming.
Indeed, there will likely be heavy rains, but I don’t believe they are severe enough to warrant concern about the agricultural outlook for the 2025-26 season. We remain broadly optimistic about the season ahead.
In fact, the farmers are also as optimistic and have started preparing the land in the eastern regions of the country. Over the past two weeks, we observed activity in some areas of Gauteng, the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Eastern Cape. These are mainly yellow maize and soybean growing regions, crops that are key to the livestock industry. We will likely see an increase in field work with farmers tilling the land from November onwards.
The La Niña-induced rains may persist through to February 2026, a key period for summer grains and oilseeds. If the 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed production season continues with minimal interruptions, as we expect, the crop could pollinate around February 2026.
The crop requires increased moisture during the flowering or pollination stages. This coincides with the rainy period within the above forecasts, which supports the crop, and underscores our optimism about the upcoming season.
In essence, our optimistic expectations for the 2025-26 summer season seem to have some early support, as fieldwork activity has started on time in the eastern regions of South Africa. Whether farmers plant the typical area for summer grains and oilseeds or not is something we will watch closely in the coming months.
Our general view is that plantings will be robust and aligned with the previous season, at about 4.5 million hectares.
Therefore, while there may be periods of excessive rains in some regions, I think it remains fair to view the 2025-26 agricultural season with some optimism.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
Since South Africa’s Department of Agriculture held its seminar on the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan, which seeks to unlock inclusive growth in the sector, I have noted some pushback from various corners.
But some of this came as a surprise, as the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan broadly crystallises much of what Chapter Six of the National Development Plan already outlined. Its value is a sharper focus and granularity it presents in its interventions, with a highlight on commodity corridors, and deeper value chain analysis.
These enable us to plan to have a more focused suggestion about what to correct to unlock growth in each value chain. There are also proper structures for continuous interaction and evaluation of actions of the stakeholders throughout the implementation process.
Therefore, I see those pushing for further debates as contributing to the issue many South Africans have complained about: the lack of implementation of policies and programmes. The reality is that there are many things we can debate in South Africa’s agricultural sector, such as the climate change policy, trade policy, and land reform, amongst others.
But the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan has been discussed at length and perhaps does not require further debate, only implementation.
The Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan is the correct plan for unlocking growth and boosting inclusivity. It matters not who drafted this plan and who signed it. This is a sound plan, with the potential to improve our agricultural sector and address many growth-inhibiting factors fundamentally.
Such factors include, amongst other issues, the release of government land with title deeds to appropriate selected beneficiaries, improving biosecurity controls (plant and animal health), addressing crime, maintaining roads, rail, and ports, and improving local municipalities.
Some may not agree with all of the contents of the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan, but we could start by implementing areas where there is common interest and consensus. Importantly, this is not a government plan; it was co-created by all stakeholders.
Therefore, implementing and making difficult decisions about dealing with officials who may constrain progress and private sector collaboration should be a primary focus of the leadership at the Department of Agriculture.
Worrying about who signed the plan and who wrote it is not an enriching path; what matters is whether the plan speaks to the core issues and is being implemented.
Another issue I want to comment on is trade, as it continues to dominate our conversation. I can’t emphasise enough that the growth path for South Africa’s agriculture involves a strong push for export diversification and the retention of existing export markets. So, in all the global travel and interactions with foreign representatives, this should be one of the key points we continue to table.
This also means we must continue to enhance our capacity as a country to engage productively with many countries on trade matters to ensure our success.
The effort requires both business and government to adopt a collaborative approach. I am sure that other sectors of the economy, such as the auto industry and mining, are of a similar view.
In agriculture, we still have the capacity to create more jobs and expand production. The success of this will depend on the efficiency of our efforts to open markets, while concurrently addressing the domestic matters that constrain production.
There are clear plans on how each of these issues should be tackled, and what is missing is the consistent and relentless focus on implementation.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
With South Africa’s 2025-26 starting already, we will continue to pay close attention to the weather outlook and soil moisture. This is key for planting and crop development, and the general agricultural season.
We are coming from a winter season, and the soil moisture, to some extent, mirrors this; it is relatively low. We will likely see some improvement after the first summer rains. Still, the plantings are underway in the eastern regions of the country.
I recently took a road trip from Gauteng to the Eastern Cape, through KwaZulu-Natal, which allowed for some field work assessment. I was happy with what I observed, as the planting has generally started in several areas.
We are in another season of La Niña rains, which means that we are likely to receive above-normal rainfall in the coming months. This is supportive of agricultural activity.
Therefore, when one sees a map of low soil moisture for now, as the one in this letter, there is no need to worry; this is a result of the winter season. We are heading to a rainy summer, and the farmers are busy in the fields, tilling the land for the 2025-26 season, which promises to be favourable. The farmers in the eastern regions will immediately benefit from better soil moisture conditions. The rest of the country will get favourable showers soon.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
Yesterday, September 29, we had the opportunity to share our views and listen to representatives of agribusinesses from the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.
However, one aspect that got many people in the room engaged was the ongoing challenge of the foot-and-mouth disease among dairy producers in the province.
Representatives from various banks commented on the cost burden faced by some of their clients, and dairy farmers’ representatives painted a picture based on their firsthand observations of the challenges.
This was a valuable input because many of us in central South Africa and the northern regions typically think of foot-and-mouth disease from the perspective of beef producers; rarely do we consider its cost burden on dairy farmers as well.
Indeed, for beef producers, the central issue is the temporary closure of various export markets, while farmers must continue to feed the cattle, thereby significantly increasing costs.
One question that also arose was about the reasons South Africa is not on full-scale vaccination against foot-and-mouth disease, especially in regions such as KwaZulu-Natal that are prone to outbreaks.
We also learned more about the constraints on vaccination supplies in certain areas.
These aren’t new issues, and we have discussed them at length in this letter; however, hearing about the picture of KwaZulu-Natal from the affected individuals was illuminating.
What one takes away from the conversation is that South Africa remains at a critical point regarding the control of foot-and-mouth disease and various animal diseases. This underscores our continuous emphasis on the need to strengthen the country’s biosecurity.
Still, the partnership with the private sector must be the path forward. We must ensure that entities capable of producing critical vaccines for our livestock industry receive the necessary government support to partner and roll out the measures needed to support the sector. We no longer need just one centre of manufacturing, but instead multiple centres where capabilities exist. Thereafter, also nudge the Department of Public Works and Infrastructure to assist with fencing to ensure the strict control of animal movement in the country.
The livestock industry is a pillar of South Africa’s farming economy, accounting for approximately half of the country’s farming fortunes. Therefore, ensuring its resilience is vital, and that starts with addressing foot-and-mouth disease and other diseases head-on.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
Next month, October 2025, we will start our 2025-26 maize and soybean production season in South Africa. Other crops will be later in the year. The chart below illustrates our grain production calendar. The brown parts are the start of the planting periods, with the letters representing the months of the year.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
We are in Adelaide today, and we spent much of our time at the University of Adelaide, engaging with academics and researchers in agriculture, agribusiness, and international trade matters.
On the agribusiness aspect, we met with researchers at the Global Food and Agriculture Research Centre (GFAR), and today’s discussion had a different feel, as we were talking with researchers whose work is mainly focused on matters outside Australia. They cover the issues of agricultural development in the Pacific region and Asia. The farmer development activities and value chain research in several of these regions closely resemble what is needed in certain areas of the African continent.
Indeed, South Africa’s agriculture is quite advanced. On the smallholding segment of our farming economy, we have pathways of supporting them, such as the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan, amongst other domestic strategies. But when considering the African continent, there remains room for improvement in agricultural productivity and progress.
Research by University of Adelaide colleagues in the Pacific region and certain regions of Asia provides valuable insights relevant to such cases.
On international trade, our conversation focused, amongst other things, on the changing global trade patterns by various countries in South-East Asia and the Pacific region. This is of particular interest to us in South Africa as we are also embarking on export diversification for a range of our sectors.
The effort is motivated not only by our challenges in the U.S. market, but also by a general growth path. Therefore, hearing what other countries are doing has been empowering.
One of the key observations that emerges is that many countries are looking at export diversification, and targeting relatively the same regions as key markets, mainly the Middle East, China and India, amongst other economies. This means that competitions in these markets may be even more challenging for us as we also look into these markets as potential export diversification regions. Again, what also matters in such issues are the various export strategies of specific product markets.
The core insight is that there is much more to learn and collaborate on with institutions here in Australia and elsewhere as we continue to build resilient economies.
11 September 2025
Adelaide, Australia
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
We are in Canberra today, Australia’s capital and a great city. Amongst many vital engagements we had, we also managed to meet colleagues from the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry (DAFF).
I was not a stranger to their work, as we in South Africa closely follow the agricultural policy and crop forecasting developments in Australia, partly due to their significant role in global grains production and exports, as well as the similarities in production conditions with South Africa.
To demonstrate the relevance of this letter, I will highlight several key aspects of their work, including climate-smart agricultural practices, biosecurity, collaboration with the private sector on research, in-depth insights into agricultural trade, and commodity forecasting. These are all the areas that apply to South Africa’s agriculture.
The DAFF equips farmers with sound research and pathways in reducing emissions and producing in more environmentally friendly ways. These are aspects that are also vital for global agricultural trade in today’s environment. Australia exports over two-thirds of its agricultural produce; therefore, compliance with the requirements of its key markets remains vital.
Like Australia, South Africa is an export-oriented agricultural sector, although smaller in value terms (and roughly half of our agricultural products go to exports). The practices of supporting various climate-smart agricultural research, improving biosecurity, and deepening trade research are areas where South Africa should increase its focus.
Fortunately, some of these matters are not far from our discussions at home. South Africa’s Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan already has some elements of such work.
What remains missing is the focus on implementing the plan, along with the release of the 2.5 million hectares of government-owned land with title deeds, which could be key for inclusive growth. The biosecurity matter, which I discussed in my first letter, remains a running theme, but not just about animal health; it is also key for plant health.
I mentioned the Master Plan because of its structure, which involves government and private sector participation. This is a strength of the Australian approach to agriculture, which we must focus on at home, and ensure there are resources and implementation in the many plans we have crafted.
I won’t delve into much, but I hope this provides a high-level view of agricultural matters.
10 September 2025
Canberra, Australia
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
