We are yet to engage with the agricultural community in Australia, and will see the livestock, horticulture and grain producers tomorrow. We spent the morning today exploring Sydney and enjoyed a 14km walk (yes – I am showing off by these kilometres). The architecture of the City bears many similarities to that of many South African cities, particularly Cape Town. The friendliness of the people and the excellent maintenance of the area are qualities one wishes for our cities.
And yes, the resources matter, and that is one of the things that weighs on the South African cities and towns, in addition to some inept management of our municipalities.
However, the atmosphere of this place gives us a sense of what we can achieve over time if we focus on revitalising our cities, emphasising cleanliness, infrastructure maintenance, and security, among other things.
The properly run municipalities are generally not just a luxury, but are core to supporting the businesses that operate in them and the households.
In the agricultural regions, proper service delivery, combined with road maintenance and security, among other things, significantly reduces transaction costs and supports both agribusinesses and medium-scale farming businesses.
The agritourism (and general tourism) also benefits under such environments. I often invite people to visit small towns in my beautiful province of the Eastern Cape, as their visits and spending would go a long way in supporting our community. But the reality is that we have municipalities that haven’t been as efficient in service delivery, road maintenance and security in some instances. This contradicts the goal of boosting tourism in the province.
Of course, I am not suggesting our small towns can replicate major cities like Sydney; rather, the basic maintenance of municipalities can have a significant impact. This is clear from many of our small towns in the Western Cape, such as Paarl.
7 September 2025
Sydney, Australia
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
When we are affected by animal diseases in South Africa, we tend to make this a challenge that only farmers and those linked to the industry must confront.
But this ought to be a national issue, with all in society aware of it, and the role they play in spreading or helping to control diseases. It is, after all, people who typically unknowingly contribute to spreading some diseases.
I am raising this because it was the first thing that struck me when I landed at Sydney International Airport this afternoon. Biosecurity was a significant issue that was announced and closely monitored. But importantly, people seemed generally aware of the biosecurity matters.
We play our part in this process through border management in South Africa. But a broader public awareness beyond the ports of entry may be valuable, especially as we continue to receive so many disease occurrences. We could build on the message that South Africa’s Department of Agriculture is starting to elevate awareness. Of course, the intervention will need to go further than that so farmers can feel the impact, and things are improving.
Currently, the South African livestock industry is facing economic strain due to the foot and mouth disease.
Beyond the awareness and information. We will still need to ensure we boost our vaccine manufacturing capacity. Livestock accounts for half of our farming economy. This is enough reason for us to be as vigilant as Australians on biosecurity matters.
6 September 2025
Sydney, Australia
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
One of the interlinked industries that tends to benefit when the agricultural sector is thriving is the agricultural machinery industry. This year is no different; South Africa’s agricultural machinery sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025. I suspect the sales are likely to continue at this encouraging pace.
If we consider the details, the tractor sales have increased for the past eight consecutive months, while the combine harvester sales only cooled in the recent few months, having started on solid momentum.
The recent data for August also paints a mixed picture. For example, the tractor sales are up 22% y/y, with 700 units sold. Meanwhile, the combine harvester sales were flat, with five units sold. The soft sales in combine harvester sales are not a significant concern given the higher volume of sales in the past few months.
The increase in agricultural machinery sales primarily reflects the positive sentiment in the sector regarding the 2024-25 field crop, horticulture, and wine grape harvest, supported by the favourable weather conditions. The sentiment in the sector is also reasonably optimistic, with the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index at 63 points in the third quarter, which is well above the 50-neutral mark.
We expect South Africa’s agricultural machinery to remain strong throughout the year. In addition to the better agricultural production conditions, the interest rates have eased somewhat from last year’s levels.
Also worth noting is that some farmers may continue with machinery replacement in the coming months, which ultimately supports the sales.
Ultimately, the machinery industry is benefiting from the favourable agricultural conditions in South Africa.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
The reaction from fellow South Africans to the speech highlights that Zimbabwe’s land reform was a significant failure, causing economic pain to many people. This is a truth, and Zimbabwe’s agriculture has not recovered since its ill-advised land reform plan in the early 2000s.
While we can all wish Zimbabwe well in its efforts to rebuild, the country’s land reform is no model for South Africa.
South Africa’s land reform is based on market principles. It supports growing investment in our agricultural sector, enabling it to play a meaningful role in resolving our triple challenge of low growth, poverty, and unemployment.
The starting point is the continuous affirmation of the strong property right, and thereafter, a release of the 2.5 million hectares of government land to appropriately selected beneficiaries with title deeds. This could be followed by blended finance and upskilling, collaboratively implemented with the private sector.
The 2.5 million hectares will not be the end of land reform; the process must continue on its market principles under the three pillars of (1) restitution, (2) redistribution, and (3) tenure.
To be clear, the South African government is still buying land from the open market for land reform processes, amongst other things. This is unlikely to change, and we all know that destructive policies won’t help resolve our triple challenges. Instead, it is investment and continuous efforts in opening export markets, addressing biosecurity weaknesses, and improving the logistics and efficiencies of municipal service delivery that will bring shared prosperity in South Africa’s agriculture.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
From next month, October, our attention will shift to the new summer grain production season. We will focus more on the weather conditions, field work on the farms, and input costs. But until that time, it is valuable to keep a close eye on the current 2024-25 production season. The crop is a bit later this year compared to usual due to late plantings and an extended rainfall period.
It is for this reason that we have consistently kept an eye on production prospects and their implications for food price inflation. Fortunately, the picture continues to improve and now looks more optimistic than in previous reports. For example, the data released at the end of August by the Crop Estimates Committee show that South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest is up by 4% from the July 2025 estimate to an expected 19.55 million tonnes. Compared to the previous season, this is a 26% year-on-year increase. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
Indeed, the base effects contributed significantly to the massive percentage annual jump. Remember, we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest.
This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.
A closer look at the data reveals that the monthly upward revisions were primarily in maize (+5%), dry beans (+16%) and soybeans (+1%). Meanwhile, the rest of the other crops were roughly unchanged from the previous month.
More specifically, South Africa’s maize harvest is now forecast at 15.80 million tonnes, which is 23% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.75 million tonnes, representing a 49% year-over-year increase. Sunflower seeds are up 12% from the last season and are estimated at 708,300 tonnes.
The groundnut harvest is estimated at 61,389 tonnes (up 18% y/y), sorghum production is estimated at 137,970 tonnes (up 41% y/y), and the dry beans harvest is at 86,407 tonnes (up 71%).
Overall, South Africa is experiencing a recovery season for its grain and oilseed production, although some areas may face quality challenges, particularly with white maize. Still, the quality issues do not fundamentally alter the available volume for milling acceptability or food supplies, although they may weigh on farmers’ profitability.
We continue to see the benefit of the ample harvest in the softening commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
It is very early to tell what the 2025-26 summer crop season may look like. The farmers will start tilling the land next month, mainly for summer grains and oilseeds.
Remember, we produce all of South Africa’s vegetables and fruits under irrigation. Therefore, when we talk of the rainy season, we typically have in mind grains, oilseeds, and other field crops, such as sugarcane. We also think of grazing veld for livestock. And yes, the rainy season matters for dam levels.
Therefore, when the 2025-26 summer crop season begins next month, in October, we will also intensify our focus on the weather outlook, as it may be a crucial factor to consider when assessing the production outlook.
It is in this regard that I was encouraged to read the South African Weather Service’s (SAWS) Seasonal Climate Watch report, released on 1 September 2025. The SAWS stated that:
“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is firmly in a neutral state; however, predictions indicate that we may be moving towards a weak La Niña event during the coming summer season.”
Such an optimistic outlook would signal prospects of above normal rainfall, which is favourable for agriculture.
Admittedly, the SAWS were quick to add that:
“It is still a bit too early to make any reliable conclusions on ENSO’s effect during early summer; more reliable interpretations can only be made in the next couple of months as the prediction systems become more reliable.”
This is a fair point. But equally comforting. Remember, we are emerging from a La Niña, which helped ensure a robust maize harvest of 15.80 million tonnes, a 23% increase year-on-year, primarily due to expected annual yield improvements.
During this period, we often fear that the La Niña season may be followed by its opposite, an El Niño, which typically brings below-normal rainfall.
Therefore, as long as there is no mention of a strong El Niño possibility, we look forward to the 2025-26 summer season with optimism for South Africa’s agriculture.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
