One of the countries in the East African region that I haven’t written about extensively, but that plays a crucial role in agricultural markets, is Kenya. The country is typically one of the key importers of staple grains, and the current season is no exception, although the harvest is much better.
Similar to the improvement in maize production witnessed in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and other countries in the Southern African region, Kenya’s 2024-25 maize crop has also shown signs of recovery.
The latest estimate by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) places the country’s harvest at 4.4 million tonnes. This is up 15% from the previous season due to both the expansion in area plantings and improved yields.
Consequently, imports are expected to decline by 17% to 250,000 tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year (this corresponds with the 2024-25 production season). The typical maize suppliers to Kenya in times of need include Tanzania and Uganda. It is likely that when domestic supplies have lessened, Kenya will still rely on these countries to supplement its domestic supplies.
South African maize exporters are unlikely to participate in the Kenyan market due to the country’s reduced annual maize needs and its long-standing ban on imports of genetically modified crops.
Over 80% of South Africa’s maize is genetically modified, which is typically used as a non-tariff barrier by various African countries. Still, South Africa’s maize exports are likely to focus on the neighbouring SACU countries, including Zimbabwe, and the Far East markets in the coming months. The East African region is unlikely to be a primary focus for many South African maize exporters.
In essence, the recovery in Kenya’s maize production, along with reduced imports, also implies that domestic food security conditions will likely improve this year compared to previous years of drought, during which consumers faced higher staple grain prices. Still, the country will remain a net importer of maize.
The outlook for 2026 will largely depend on the upcoming season. So far, the weather prospects look encouraging for another better season for Kenya.
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I have long stated that 2025 will likely be a period of uneven recovery in the South African agriculture. From the high-frequency data, we are starting to see mixed fortunes. There is a robust recovery in field crops, vegetables and fruits, thanks to good rains, but the livestock industry continues to struggle with animal diseases.
A few weeks ago, Statistics South Africa released South Africa’s GDP for the second quarter, and the agricultural figures, to an extent, mirrored this challenge. The country’s agricultural gross value added expanded by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. This follows the 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year. The expansion was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture subsectors (vegetables and fruits).
As close observers of the sector are aware, quarterly data tend to be somewhat volatile, influenced by harvest times, crop deliveries, and other factors. It is particularly such issues that the second-quarter growth figure was much softer compared to the start of the year.
We experienced a delay in our summer grain harvest, with more momentum occurring at the start of the third quarter than is typically seen in the second quarter. Indeed, we have ample summer grain and oilseeds, estimated at 19.55 million tonnes (up 26% year-on-year). However, the season was late by roughly a month and a half due to the excessively prolonged summer rains, among other factors.
We have also continued to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease and a few cases of avian influenza, particularly in the second quarter. It was at the end of the second quarter that the foot-and-mouth disease vaccines arrived in South Africa for the start of the vaccination campaign.
However, not all crops were late. The citrus harvest season started in the second quarter, and we have an ample harvest. Farmers moved quickly to take advantage of the tariff pause window in the U.S., which allows for faster harvesting and contributes to the general upside in second-quarter performance. However, it is much softer than at the start of the year.
Also worth noting is that the sector’s sentiment remains optimistic, although it has softened in recent years. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell for a second consecutive quarter by 2 points to 63 in the third quarter of 2025. Despite the slight decline, the current level of the ACI implies that South African agribusinesses remain optimistic about business conditions in the country.
With all these factors considered, the critical point is that we remain convinced that 2025 will likely be a recovery period for South Africa’s agriculture. However, as we have communicated on various occasions, the recovery will be uneven.
The livestock industry continues to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease. Meanwhile, on the upside, the field crops, mainly grains, oilseeds, and sugarcane, are all expected to show a fantastic recovery from last season. We also have an excellent harvest of fruits and vegetables.
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Earlier this week, at the South Africa–China Trade and Investment Promotion Conference in Johannesburg, China’s Ambassador to South Africa, Mr Wu Peng, stated, among other things, that:
“In recent years, China has steadily increased imports from South Africa. Take agriculture as an example: today, as avocados and dairy products have gained market access to China, 68 categories of South African agri-food products can be exported to China. 90% of South Africa’s pecans and half of its macadamias are sold to China. These products have enriched the food baskets of Chinese consumers, and more importantly, increased the incomes of South African farmers and exporters.”
I want to add that while we appreciate this momentum and want to see a deeper integration of agricultural products into China, there are still some constraints. For example, many of the products that Mr Wu Peng mentioned still face various levels of tariffs. Consider our macadamia nuts; they face a 12% tariff in China. In the case of wine, the industry faces tariffs ranging from 14% to 20% (depending on whether the wine is bottled or sold in bulk).
Still, I say this not to discourage the trade conversation with China, but to highlight that there remain essential hindrances that both our countries must work on. We face these tariffs because we don’t have a formal trade agreement. Such an agreement would involve various trade-offs, with implications for other sectors of the South African economy; therefore, policymakers will need to be cognizant of these when engaging with China.
Still, the Chinese market remains vital for the growth of our agricultural sector, and it is the second-largest market in the world, accounting for roughly 11% of global agricultural imports in 2023, valued at US$218 billion. The leading suppliers of farm products to China are Brazil, the U.S., Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Canada, Vietnam, France, Russia, Argentina, Chile, Ukraine, the Netherlands, and Malaysia.
South Africa remains a negligible player in the Chinese agricultural market, accounting for a mere 0.4% (US$979 million) of China’s agricultural imports of US$218 billion in 2023. These exports include a variety of fruits, wine, red meat, nuts, maize, soybeans, and wool. Some of these products are subject to various levels of tariffs.
Our goal is to achieve greater access to more fruits, grains, wine, and beef at lower tariff levels. There is room for more ambitious agricultural export efforts.
China’s offer to remove tariffs on various products from the African continent remains a key consideration in these conversations. However, any South African policymaker must remember that our economy is diverse. While I generally write about agriculture here, when engaging with China broadly, one must consider the implications for other sectors of our economy in any conversation involving trade agreements with countries such as China.
I raise this because China, like other countries globally, will eventually look to the world to increase its exports as it encounters friction in the U.S. market. Such diversification efforts may involve the African continent, which, for now, is starting from a generous path of extending zero-tariff access. It is possible that, in the long run, reciprocity will be China’s request, which is a fair point in terms of trade; it cannot be a one-way approach.
If such a possibility exists, then each country will need to approach China’s offer of zero tariffs with a long-term mindset and consideration for other sectors of the economy. In the South African context, while we want agriculture to have deeper access in China, this is one matter we must keep in mind, and possibly an issue our policymakers are contemplating. Balancing the tradeoffs will be tricky.
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It is encouraging to read in the Business Day, September 23 issue, about the efforts of the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) to advance its cannabis and hemp research, and importantly, the seed breeding of this plant. Globally, the mood is somewhat downbeat on cannabis, but that is no reason to change our focus in South Africa. There are cycles on these things.
The ARC’s previous work on this plan, along with its continuous effort, is essential. For some time, I have been troubled that we talk more about cannabis and hemp in SA, but move very slowly on the legislative aspect that enables the proper cultivation and development of this plant. We have been slow in providing a new and clear regulatory path for this plant, and the licensing price has been somewhat prohibitive for some people.
When we finally progress with research, regulations and a clear policy framework for hemp and cannabis, I still believe that the plant could be a catalyst for revitalising rural communities. It could also create opportunities for cannatourism, particularly in rural areas of the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Limpopo. Of course, life won’t drastically change because of this plant, but it will bring some value.
As many countries are focused on this plant, we need to consider ways to distinguish ourselves in South Africa. It may well be that South Africa’s competitive advantage could be built on the back of a transparent and predictable regulatory framework, an open investment regime, robust research and development support, knowledge networks that bring together university researchers, centres of excellence, and other industry players, a product quality and standards authority, and a low-cost licensing regime.
Importantly, we need to consider practical ways to ensure that production and value chains don’t mainly develop in areas that have always been the leading agricultural zones and urban areas with better access to investment.
The communities of the Mpondoland region of the Eastern Cape have been growing this plant in the shadows of the law for many years and should benefit from its liberalisation. But does the government have a clear plan for mobilising investment and value chain development in these regions?
Perhaps the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Limpopo provincial agricultural departments should lead and lobby their national counterparts to refine and craft regulations that encourage investment in these provinces.
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While concerns about deeper access for agricultural products into the U.S. market continue to linger, the activity so far has remained encouraging. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. increased by 26% in the second quarter of 2025, from the same period a year ago, at US$161 million.
It appears that some exporters may have taken advantage of the 90-day pause of the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual during that period.
The composition of the products remains unchanged, primarily consisting of citrus wine, fruit juices, and nuts, among other typical agricultural exports to the U.S.
The fact that South Africa generally has a large fruit harvest also contributed to this enormous increase, which far surpassed the average typical quarterly growth in exports to the U.S., which is about 9%.
Also worth highlighting is that the rise underscores in a way the importance of the U.S. market for some producers, while it remains somewhat smaller from a national perspective. South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. were still 4% in the second quarter of 2025.
(South Africa’s agricultural exports to the world market totalled US$3.71 billion in Q2, up 10% from the same period a year ago).
Again, the 4% share of the U.S. in the overall South African agricultural exports is not a small value, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these agricultural exports. These are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices.
Since the start of AGOA, the percentage share of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. has remained at these levels. From now on, a great deal hinges on whether South Africa succeeds in securing favourable trade terms with the U.S. The future performance of the exports to the U.S. will rely mainly on the success of the ongoing conversations between the two countries.
The export diversification we are discussing is not about replacing the U.S. but rather adding to it. We have a growing sector that requires more export markets in the future; thus, this issue of export diversification is more urgent right now.
Our primary focus is to work diligently to maintain our existing markets in the EU, Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas. It is also crucial for South Africa to expand market access to some key BRICS countries, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
The emphasis on the BRICS grouping should be on the need to lower import tariffs and address artificial phytosanitary barriers that hinder deeper trade within this grouping. The discussion in BRICS should move beyond the general rhetoric of intentions to meaningful trade arrangements.
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The challenges that American farmers face, struggling with exports of their soybeans and other crops, show once again the importance of open and fair trade. The current higher U.S. tariffs, along with retaliatory measures by trading partners, pose a problem for everyone.
For example, China, which is not only a significant market for U.S. farmers but also imports roughly half of the world’s traded soybeans, has progressively shifted its suppliers, now sourcing more produce from South America and Latin America.
The renewed trade friction between the countries has only accelerated the trend and left the U.S. farmers in a challenging position with one of their key export markets.
China learned from the first time President Trump levied higher tariffs on them, and their consequent retaliatory tariffs, and started shifting its sources for some of its agricultural products. We now read various articles that sum up the challenge faced by U.S. farmers as:
Clearly, the trade war has not only challenged farmers in terms of export markets, but they also face labour shortages in some regions. The anti-immigration policy has arguably been unsuitable for agriculture, which, to some extent, relies on foreign labour.
Of course, the challenges differ from farmer to farmer and by region. However, it is probably fair to say that so far, the U.S.’s higher tariffs and retaliatory measures by some trade partners are causing more damage to farmers.
There is perhaps a message here for South Africans who care about agriculture, a recognition that the trade friction is causing headaches for all. For us, it presents profound uncertainty for exporting farmers and agribusinesses (to the U.S.), mainly citrus, table grapes, ostrich, wine, and nuts, amongst others. It has also introduced volatility into the global grains and oilseed markets, which in turn affects our grains market.
Equally, the U.S. farmers face economic pain as some of their key markets have retaliated. The core message is that open and fair trade is the only good path for major agricultural producers, and this includes us in South Africa.
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He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
