by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 14, 2025 | Food Security
On October 14, the Business Day newspaper published a story where Shoprite, one of South Africa’s retailers, reminded us of the worsening level of poverty in the country. The organisation attributed the deteriorating poverty, in part, to the:
“deep challenges in food affordability and access, with consumers under severe pressure in the face of subdued economic growth and high unemployment.”
This picture is not very different from what Statistics South Africa also highlighted earlier this year. In February 2025, Statistics South Africa released the Food Security Report for 2019, 2022, and 2023 (COVID-19 affected the ability to collect data in 2020 and 2021). The report utilised data from the General Household Survey (GHS) for those years.
The report’s most striking observation was that:
“The proportion of households in South Africa that experienced moderate to severe food insecurity was estimated at 15.8% in 2019, 16.2% in 2022, and 19.7% in 2023. Over this period, the proportion of households that experienced severe food insecurity was estimated to be 6.4%, 7.5%, and 8.0%, respectively.”
I want to stress, however, that it appears the deteriorating food security is not due to a lack of nutritious, high-quality food and safe food products or high prices per se. Access seems to be the fundamental challenge, especially for households with no regular income sources.
Therefore, addressing income poverty at the household level must be the centre of any strategy to address food insecurity.
Clearly, while agriculture, the sector I work in, can play a role, this challenge requires coordinated efforts to grow the South African economy, lift employment across various sectors, and provide appropriate support to vulnerable households.
Despite the concerning trend in Stats SA’s survey, South Africa remains food secure and is a net exporter of agricultural products at the national level. Exports are necessary for sustaining farming incomes, generating the resources needed for investment, and ultimately, the sector’s ability to create and maintain jobs.
Notably, South Africa does not export its food supplies without appropriately considering the domestic food needs at the national level. Moreover, the country’s food prices remain relatively moderate. Despite this, food insecurity will remain a challenge if households have little to no income.
Agriculture will play its role where possible, and the path for agricultural growth has been studied and incorporated into policy thinking. For example, at a technical level, expanding agriculture and agro-processing capacity to boost growth and job creation was well established as far back as the National Development Plan 2012.
They were again highlighted in the 2019 National Treasury paper, in the 2022 Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan, and, most recently, in my book titled A Country of Two Agricultures: The Disparities, The Challenges, The Solutions.
Ultimately, South Africa’s agriculture plays a role in resolving household poverty challenges. However, the responsibility does not lie solely in the sector.
Other sectors of the economy can play an essential role in creating jobs and fiscal space, which can be used for various social causes to improve the quality of life in South Africa.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 13, 2025 | Agricultural Production
At the start of this year, South Africa’s Department of Agriculture, along with organised agriculture, agribusinesses, and research groups in agriculture, established the Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee of South Africa (ACAC), housed under the Department.
The ACAC meets quarterly to assess statistical matters and methodology for the collection of agricultural statistics.
The ACAC also provides a platform for organised agricultural stakeholders and industry experts to share their views on observing the evolving agricultural landscape in South Africa.
I am part of the ACAC, and today, October 13, we had a meeting for the third quarter of 2025. In the section about the agricultural conditions in the country, the ACAC viewed South Africa’s agricultural conditions as uneven, but leaning more towards the favourable growth path for most industries.
I want to lift a few passages from ACAC’s official statement, which succinctly summarise the current state of our sector.
The ACAC stated that:
“In field crops, the output is up from the 2023-24 season, boosted by the favourable rainfall and vast planting area. For example, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest is estimated at 19.94 million tonnes, a 28% year-on-year increase. This encompasses maize, soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum, dry beans and groundnuts. As a result of this ample harvest, the commodity prices are generally under pressure. The season was roughly a month and a half behind its typical schedule. As a result, some of the produce that would ordinarily be delivered in the second quarter was delivered in the third quarter, which may boost the gross value added figures specifically for that quarter.
In terms of sugar cane production, conditions remain favourable, and the 2024-25 crop is higher than the previous season due to the favourable rains and decent planting. Prices are, however, under a bit of pressure given that world prices are substantially lower than a year ago.
In the case of winter crops, the season has not been as favourable. The start of the season presented some snail infestation in canola-producing regions of the Western Cape, a significant winter crop-producing province of South Africa. Moreover, the drier weather conditions at the end of August and the beginning of September also weighed on the crop. Still, the production estimates remain decent, with South Africa’s winter crop estimated at 2.77 million tonnes, up 4% from the 2024-25 season. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines. Winter crop prices have held up better than summer crop prices.”
The ACAC further noted that:
“Regarding fruits, the 2024-25 season has been a period of recovery. The citrus volumes, deciduous fruits, table grapes, and other fruits are all in better conditions, and across the board, harvests, along with export volumes, are well up from last year. The ACAC also sees better volumes and quality in wine production, with substantial upward revisions in the latest wine grape crop estimates. The primary concern for horticulture and wine producers remains trade policy, particularly the friction in the U.S. market and the slow pace of export diversification. At the production level, the conditions are favourable and should support third-quarter growth.
The production conditions for vegetables are also fair, benefiting from favourable rainfall. Volumes are up year on year for most major vegetables, but given that the bulk of produce is consumed locally, additional volumes do bring price pressure. Consequently, there are concerns about the profitability of some industries, such as potatoes, where prices have declined rapidly due to the large harvest.”
On the downside, the ACA said that:
“In livestock, the beef farmers and dairy producers continue to face a challenging environment due to foot-and-mouth disease. The disease and the slow process of vaccination will weigh on the profitability of farming businesses. Widespread impact from FMD has disrupted production, with slaughter volumes and carcass weights down as a result. But the one positive aspect is the better feed prices the ACAC continues to observe, following the large soybean and maize harvest.
Higher beef prices have also provided some support to pork and poultry prices, as a result of consumer substitution. These industries have shorter production cycles and can expand production to make up for beef supply disruptions. The pork and poultry industries also benefit from better feed costs, which is a significant cost driver for them, while remaining concerned about animal diseases in general.”
In a nutshell, we are experiencing an uneven recovery in South Africa’s agriculture this year.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 13, 2025 | Africa Focus
In the week of September 26 and October 3, 2025, Zimbabwe imported 34,093 tonnes of maize from South Africa. These imports are at a time when Zimbabwe has previously announced a ban on maize imports, an effort that was set to provide the local producers space to sell their produce to the domestic users.
From the onset of this ban, I expressed disappointment and doubts about whether Zimbabwe had sufficient maize supplies to support its domestic consumption. Plainly, my view was that the country didn’t have enough maize to meet its annual demand and would need to import maize.
I based our view on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), indicating that Zimbabwe’s maize production is approximately 1.3 million tonnes. Given the annual consumption of 2.0 million tonnes, they naturally need about 700,000 tonnes to fulfil their needs.
Notably, days after the announcement of the ban, there was also growing evidence that the supply is constrained. Some milling firms faced challenges due to the maize shortage.
While we have not seen any official government communication, I am encouraged to see that Zimbabwe has taken the right step to permit maize imports. South Africa’s maize exports data for the week of September 26 and October 3, 2025, clearly show a resumption in maize exports to Zimbabwe.
Ordinarily, Zimbabwe is one of the key markets for South Africa’s maize industry. In the 2025-26 marketing year (corresponding with the 2024-25 production season), Zimbabwe has not been a major importer.
The available domestic supplies provided near-term relief. The country may become a major importer of South African maize in the coming months as domestic supplies decrease.
For example, South Africa’s 2025-26 marketing year maize exports so far stand at 684 723 tonnes, which is far below the seasonal export forecast of 2.2 million tonnes. Zimbabwe accounts for 14% of these exports. The rest is spread across the Southern Africa region, including Venezuela, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Vietnam, amongst other importers.
Overall, witnessing South Africa’s maize exports to Zimbabwe brings relief. The exports mean that the millers who faced maize shortages a few weeks ago may now have access to ample supplies from South Africa and other global suppliers. This also means that consumers may again have access to better-priced global maize supplies, which bodes well for consumer price inflation in Zimbabwe.
It is also worth noting that South African maize exporters may continue to access the Zimbabwean maize market, which is key for white maize exports. Still, we will have to watch this issue closely as we haven’t seen any official communication from the country.
While I understand what the Zimbabwean government attempted to achieve when it first introduced the ban on maize imports, we continue to believe it is not an ideal policy approach, as it disadvantages the consumers.
My preference is for minimal intervention in agricultural markets and prioritization of production-focused support rather than the utilization of trade policy or price caps to achieve government objectives.
Such policy action, while it may often seem appealing, typically presents negative implications for investment in the sector. Therefore, it may be ideal for the Zimbabwean government to formally announce a lift in the maize import ban, allowing trade to continue.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 12, 2025 | Agricultural Trade
South Africa is a net wheat importer, and October 3 marked the first week of the new 2025-26 marketing year. The imports for the first week of the 2025-26 marketing year totalled 20,362 tonnes. The suppliers were from Australia (52%), Lithuania (43%) and Poland (5%).
We expect South Africa’s 2025-26 wheat imports to reach 1.74 million tonnes, down marginally from 1.83 million tonnes in 2024-25 marketing year because of an expected slight recovery in the domestic harvest.
For anyone wondering why South Africa imports wheat, I must highlight some brief historical perspective I have shared here before. South Africa began importing over a million tonnes of wheat from the 2003-04 marketing year.
In the years before that, wheat imports averaged 458,518 tonnes, for example, between 1989-90 and 2002-03. The import surge resulted from increased consumption and a decline in area plantings.
From the 1997-98 season, South Africa’s wheat plantings fell below a million hectares, the norm in seasons before this period. This decline is better explained by the profitability challenges that farmers have faced since that period, specifically in the Free State and in non-conducive climatic conditions.
The critical thing to recall is that before 1997-98, South Africa’s agricultural markets were regulated, and the various commodities boards played a massive role in setting prices, including wheat.
Thus, after deregulation, South African farmers had to compete in the global market. Therefore, the Free State production areas came under profitability strain, resulting in farmers switching from wheat to other profitable crops.
Other provinces of South Africa don’t have large areas with conducive climatic conditions for high-quality wheat milling for human consumption. Hence, we speak of a few central wheat-producing provinces, including the Western Cape and those under irrigation in the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and North West.
A significant development over the years has been the improvement in productivity in South Africa’s wheat farming. In 1997-98, South Africa’s wheat yields were below 2.0 tonnes per hectare. The yields are 3,8 tonnes per hectare as of the 2024-25 production season.
Because of improved profitability, South African wheat production has remained relatively large. The 2021/22 crop was the largest in 20 years, at about 2.3 million tonnes.
In 2025-26, the crop is estimated at 2.03 million tonnes. This is insufficient to meet annual consumption. Thus, we say, South Africa will likely import about 1.74 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year to supplement the domestic supplies. The current import volumes are roughly half of South Africa’s annual wheat needs of 3.8 million tonnes.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 8, 2025 | Agricultural Production
The writer, Jabulani Sikhakhane, has a fascinating column in the Business Day (October 8, 2025) about the need to rethink rural development in the former homelands of South Africa, extending the focus beyond agriculture. Broadly, I agree with his sentiment and much of the literature he cites in his column, which states that communities need more than just agriculture.
However, I want to emphasise that since the dawn of democracy, South Africa has consistently failed to stimulate agricultural growth in the former homelands of this country. While South Africa’s agricultural economy has more than doubled since 1994, this expansion has mainly been in the traditionally commercial regions.
The former homelands remain in the periphery of agricultural growth, although some have access to fertile lands. Poor land governance and inadequate infrastructure are among the key constraints to agricultural development. Therefore, it is unsurprising that households may lose hope in agriculture and seek to focus on other areas.
They have, for over three decades, been stuck in subsistence farming, with no coherent government programme to assist. This is an issue we detailed at length in my book, A Country of Two Agricultures, with proposed solutions that policymakers could consider to stimulate growth and job creation in rural South Africa.
Therefore, I would still argue that South Africa’s rural development should have agriculture as a central focus, but must adopt a different approach to farming that prioritises commercialisation to improve the economic conditions of the communities and bring much-needed jobs.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 7, 2025 | Agricultural Production
We have currently entered a period of lower maize prices in South Africa. This is a relatively favourable period for South African households, livestock farmers, and poultry producers, who are the major consumers of maize.
Looking at South Africa’s white maize spot prices today, they are down by over 35% from a year ago, trading at R3,595 per tonne.
In the case of yellow maize, the pot price is down by over 20% from a year ago, trading around R3,450 per tonne.
These notable declines in maize prices illustrate the improved supplies in the domestic market. After all, we have a sizable harvest in the 2024-25 season. The Crop Estimate Committee forecast South Africa’s maize harvest at 16.12 million tonnes, which is 26% higher than the crop for the 2023-24 season.
Importantly, the expected maize crop is well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
The notable decline in domestic maize prices illustrates the ample harvest. Moreover, the relatively slow pace of export activity has contributed to the decline in maize prices.
For the 2025-26 marketing year (which corresponds with he 2024-25 production season), South Africa’s maize exports are forecast at 2.24 million tonnes. This season ends in April 2026. Ideally, we should have seen robust export activity by now. But the exports have been slow.
Since the start of the year in May 2025 through to the end of September 2025, South Africa had exported about 650,897 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.24 million tonnes.
We are seeing softer demand in the African region, as some countries also have decent supplies. However, we will likely see more robust export activity later in the year and in early 2026, when some countries in the region have depleted their supplies. It is such a time when, perhaps, maize prices could nudge up a bit. But for now, we remain in a period of lower maize prices.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 5, 2025 | Agricultural Production
At the end of August, I pondered the possibility of a canola boom in South Africa for the 2025-26 season. I based my view on the area planting and weather prospects, which were encouraging compared to the 2024-25 season.
However, as many people in South Africa’s canola-growing province, the Western Cape, would agree, the start of the 2025-26 season presented a challenge for some regions of the province. We have seen reports of snail infestations in some areas, forcing farmers to replant, a process that increases production costs.
At the end of September 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee released its second production forecast for canola, indicating a possible harvest of 311,640 tonnes, a 3% decrease from the August 2025 estimate. Notably, this remains 7% higher than the previous season. The annual gains are primarily due to the expansion in area plantings.
I must say, this is not far off from our initial estimate of a 311,661-tonne harvest of canola, which was an 8% increase from the 2024-25 season. Here, we applied a five-year average yield of 1.89 tonnes per hectare to the area of 164,900 hectares, which provided a harvest estimate of 311,661 tonnes.
Still, the expected crop of 311,640 tonnes is a fresh record, reinforcing South Africa’s position as a relatively new exporter of canola products. South Africa is now a net exporter of canola, having recently exported to countries such as Germany and Belgium.
Canola is a relatively new crop in South Africa, but it remains a success story. Since South African farmers began planting the crop commercially on 17,000 hectares in 1998-99, the area has increased to an estimated 164,900 hectares by the 2025-26 season.
Over the years, the catalyst behind the increase in canola plantings has been a rise in domestic demand or usage for oils and oilcake.
There has been a shift from traditional winter wheat and barley growing areas to canola due to firm demand and price competitiveness. Canola is a winter crop, primarily planted in the Western Cape, a region with winter rainfall in South Africa.
Therefore, while the start of the season has been costly for farmers, and the harvest estimate has been lowered from the initial, bigger harvest, South Africa could still have a record harvest of 311,640 tonnes of canola. This is arguably still a canola boom in terms of a harvest, but it’s a whole different discussion in terms of profitability for farmers.
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