On October 21, 2025, on the sidelines of the Financial Times Africa Summit in London, I sat with the CNBC folks for a broad conversation about South African and Southern African agricultural developments and trade.
On trade matters, I highlighted that for its export diversification strategy, South Africa is looking at broadening exports to Asia and the Middle East. The natural and fair question that followed was: What is our strategy for Africa?
The African continent remains vital to South Africa’s agriculture, accounting for roughly half of our annual exports. We exported about $13.7bn (R237bn) to the world market in 2024, and I suspect this year our agricultural exports will cross the $14bn mark for the first time.
Africa has been central to this export growth, particularly the Southern Africa region. Roughly 90c in every dollar of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the African continent are to Southern African countries. These are mainly in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Free Trade Area.
We will likely remain heavily dominant in these regions for some time, but the growth is limited. We are not as strong in other parts of the continent.
The product scope of agricultural exports into SACU and SADC is quite diverse. It includes maize, processed food products, apples and pears, sugar, animal feed, prepared or bottled water, fruit juices and wine.
The question is how much more can South Africa export beyond the Sacu/Sadc region, and what is our attitude towards greater Africa?
The most reasonable assumption is for South Africa to target West, East, and North Africa. But such an expansion has limits.
For a start, Africa north of the Sahara, more specifically Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia, is much closer to Europe and its trade activity is more closely linked to the EU than Sub-Saharan Africa.
North Africa, more specifically Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia, is much closer to Europe and its trade activity is more closely linked to the EU than Sub-Saharan Africa. Establishing a market presence in North Africa may prove challenging due to direct competition with well-established EU supply chains and competitive local produce.
South Africa’s realistic opportunity within the African continent is more likely in East and West Africa. Leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)’s tariff-free movement of goods would potentially boost the country’s agricultural exports to these regions. But, at least in the near term, trade with these regions may not yield many benefits for South Africa.
There are at least three reasons. First, East and West Africa have a range of non-tariff barriers, which could hinder boosting trade regardless of lower tariffs through AfCFTA. Second, high levels of corruption, which increase the costs of doing business, have proven to be a significant concern. Third, fragmented value chains owing to poor connectivity and infrastructure are a major contributor to transport costs.
This narrow scope of expanding agricultural exports in the African continent typically leads to frustration among business leaders, who continue to see improvement in domestic production but are limited in avenues for sales. The major economies in the east and west of the continent, Nigeria and Kenya, remain tiny markets for South Africa’s agricultural exports, each accounting for a mere 2% a year.
Still, Nigeria spends over $6 billion on agricultural imports a year. The key beneficiaries of the Nigerian agriculture market are Brazil, the US, China, Russia, Canada, New Zealand and Germany. This is through imports of wheat, dairy products, sugar, processed food, palm oil and maize, among other products.
Meanwhile, Kenya is a relatively small market with just over $2 billion worth of agriculture and food imports a year. The key suppliers are Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Russia, Pakistan, Uganda, Tanzania, India and Egypt. Kenya’s key agriculture and food imports are palm oil, wheat, rice, sugar, processed food, maize, dairy products, pasta and sorghum.
Therefore, South Africa will play a more maintenance approach rather than hoping for further expansion in the African continent. The near-term growth areas in our assessment are the Middle East and Asian countries. The growing population and better income levels in these regions are among the key indicators.
When South African leaders are in Asia, visiting countries such as Vietnam, China, Malaysia, and India, it is important to consider the implications. Equally, when our leaders are in the Middle East the conversation should focus on export diversification.
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American farmers are likely to be somewhat uplifted by the recent US-China meeting. They are feeling the negative impact of the current trade friction, as China has increased its reliance on South and Latin American countries to buy soybeans and other agricultural products.
China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans, accounting for roughly half of global soybean imports. China also imports a range of agricultural products, making it the world’s second-largest agricultural importer. Therefore, a promise from the recent US-China meeting to resume imports of US agricultural products will help alleviate some of the pressures on American farmers.
For us in South Africa, of course, the easing of the trade friction reduces the volatility in the grain markets. However, it doesn’t fundamentally change much of our reality. There are ample grain and oilseed supplies in the world market, which have kept prices generally under pressure. This adds to the fact that South Africa has a large crop.
Therefore, for a South African farmer, there are some financial pressures, particularly if one considers that we will start the 2025-26 planting season with reasonably higher input costs.
For consumers, however, the ample global and domestic grain prices bode well for a continuously moderating food inflation path through 2026.
With all these issues considered, South African farmers remain eager to plant a decent crop area in the 2025-26 season, with an intended area of 4.5 million hectares, up 1% from the 2024-25 season that has just been completed. The weather outlook for the season is broadly positive, suggesting we may have another excellent crop.
Overall, we will closely monitor the issue of US-China grain trade and whether there will be a resumption in US export volumes. Still, even if there is a resumption, China will likely stay on its path to diversify its agricultural product suppliers. The South and Latin American region are the biggest beneficiary of this effort, but China is increasingly looking at other regions, which includes us in South Africa.
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At the beginning of October 2025, I spent some time on the road, which allowed me to assess early planting activity for the 2025-26 summer crop season. I was encouraged by what I saw.
Indeed, in the eastern regions of the country, farmers were already busy tilling the land to take advantage of the early summer rains. I observed activity in some areas of Gauteng, the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Eastern Cape. These are mainly yellow maize and soybean growing regions, crops that are key to the livestock industry.
Given that the 2024-25 season was roughly a month and a half late, there was concern that the upcoming season might also be slightly behind schedule. But that is not what we are observing on the ground. The fieldwork currently underway suggests the season is starting on schedule, allowing the crop to mature early before any potential frost later in the season.
Importantly, the most recent update from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) is now broadly aligned with other international weather forecasters, who say the 2025-26 summer season may be a La Niña season. This would be beneficial for crop production and all other agricultural activities.
On September 30, the SAWS stated that the latest forecasts:
“indicate that we are moving towards at least a weak La Niña event during the coming summer season. As the period of uncertainty for ENSO during winter and early spring draws to an end, the predictions become more accurate. There are still some predictions that remain neutral. However, a La Niña State is more likely and gaining confidence as we near the summer seasons”.
The La Niña-induced rains may persist through to February 2026, a key period for summer grains and oilseeds. If the 2025-26 summer grain and oilseed production season continues with minimal interruptions, as we expect, the crop could pollinate around February 2026.
The crop requires increased moisture during the flowering or pollination stages. This coincides with the rainy period within the above forecasts, which supports the crop, and underscores our optimism about the upcoming season.
While my early assessment of plantings is based mainly on fieldwork in the eastern regions of South Africa, I note that the western areas are likely only to see the start of planting from mid-November onwards. This would still be an optimal period for crops to receive rainfall that supports their growing conditions.
While I will continue to monitor planting activity and crop conditions in the months ahead, another area that will require continuous focus is biosecurity. SA continues to face challenges related to foot-and-mouth disease, resulting in financial losses in some feedlots and livestock farms.
The work of addressing this challenge and reviving vaccine manufacturing must continue to ensure the sector is on a positive footing going into 2026. Notably, the rainy summer may present other disease challenges for livestock, but the primary focus remains on foot-and-mouth disease.
Overall, my optimistic expectations for the 2025-26 summer season appear to be gaining early support, as fieldwork has started on time in the eastern regions of South Africa.
Whether farmers plant the typical area for summer grains and oilseeds or not is something we will watch closely in the coming months. We know from the Crop Estimates Committee’s data that they intend to plant 4.5 million hectares, up 1% from the 2024-25 season.
While I remain upbeat about the 2025-26 season, I am fully aware that a crop cycle is long, and uncertainty about the intensity and timing of rainfall throughout the cycle is a critical factor in achieving yields.
This is an updated version of the column that appeared in the Business Day on October 15, 2025.
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South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grain and oilseeds production season was excellent. In its 9th production estimate, released on October 28, 2025, the Crop Estimate Committee raised South Africa’s 2024-25 production by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes.
This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans. The upward revision was mainly on maize, while other production estimates remained unchanged from the September figure.
The current estimate for the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseed season is up 30% from the previous season. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest. This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.
A closer look at the data reveals that South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is now at 16.32 million tonnes, 27% higher than the 2023-24 season’s crop. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, indicating a surplus and continued net maize exports.
Regarding oilseeds, the soybean harvest is estimated at 2.75 million tonnes, up 49% year over year. Sunflower seeds are up 12% from the last season and are estimated at 708,300 tonnes. The groundnut harvest is estimated at 61,389 tonnes (up 18% y/y), sorghum production is forecast at 144,665 tonnes (up 48% y/y), and the dry beans harvest is at 90,556 tonnes (up 79%).
A season ahead
The new 2025-26 production season is just starting and is shaping up to be excellent. The farmers intend to plant 4,49 million hectares, up by 1% from the 2024-25 season we are ending.
Concluding view
Overall, South Africa has an ample supply of summer grains and oilseeds, and we will see the benefits of the harvest in softer commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.
The focus is now shifting to the 2025-26 season, which also promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains. The farmers also intend to increase area plantings for the new year slightly, and planting activity has started positively in the eastern and central regions of the country.
Against this promising outlook, we believe South Africa’s food price inflation may continue to moderate into 2026, though there is potential upside risk from a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.
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It appears that South Africa may have an excellent wine grape harvest and possibly a good wine season in 2025-26. This would be a welcome development, as the industry has faced various challenges in recent times and has also experienced a decline in its output.
Reading a newsletter this morning from South Africa Wine, an industry organisation, was refreshing. They stated that:
“ South Africa’s wine industry is gearing up for a promising 2026 harvest following favourable winter and spring conditions. Good rainfall, sufficient winter dormancy, and early spring warmth have supported healthy bud break and strong growth across most regions.
The 2025 post-harvest period set the stage well for 2026. Winter cold units were sufficient, canopies are healthy, and flower clusters in early cultivars look promising. Technical indicators point to a crop similar in size to 2025, despite shrinking vineyard surfaces and an increase in older vines.
Early assessments suggest excellent quality potential. White cultivars such as Chenin Blanc, Sauvignon Blanc, and Chardonnay show sufficient yields, while noble reds are developing promising clusters. New vineyard plantings further strengthen the outlook for a productive season.”
In essence, we are ending a better year, 2025, and looking to another more promising season of 2026 in the wine industry. Importantly, the outlook for other fruits also looks positive.
I am writing this letter from Kakamas, on the banks of the Orange River, in the Northern Cape province of South Africa. The photo above is from one of the farms in the area. The grapes look excellent, and yield prospects are positive.
The mood in the region is upbeat, especially as port logistics have also improved. Our fruit industry is export-oriented, and logistics matter most.
In addition to the encouraging developments in fruit, we have a promising summer grains and oilseeds season ahead. There is a chance of La Niña rains, which will support the season. Planting is underway across the various areas of the country. So, these early observations suggest that we are looking at another positive year for some agricultural subsectors.
Still, this doesn’t mean everything is well. The livestock industry continues to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease. I will say more about that later. But I had to flag that things are all positive; hence, we have consistently been talking about an uneven recovery.
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Some showers in the next few days across much of South Africa would help to ensure that the 2025-26 plantings in the western regions of the country begin on time.
In the western regions of the country, which are mainly white maize and sunflower seed areas, plantings begin in mid-November. Thus, we think that if we get nice showers in the coming weeks, these regions will be able to start planting. So far, these regions have received little rain, and soil moisture remains low.
Still, we are in a La Niña rainfall season, so we aren’t as worried about moisture levels this summer. We also had late La Niña rains, starting a month and a half behind schedule, yet still ended up with an excellent crop. That is what actually happened in the 2024-25 season, and yet, we ended up with an ample harvest of 19.94 million tonnes (a 28% year-on-year increase). There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
For the eastern regions of the country, however, the picture is more positive. These regions have received favourable rainfall, and soil moisture is supportive of planting activity.
Typically, maize and soybean plantings start around mid-October in the eastern regions of the country, and we have witnessed an increase in fieldwork over the past couple of weeks while driving through those areas.
Therefore, when one sees a soil moisture map like this, there is no need for panic; these are still early days, and the weather outlook for the season remains positive.
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He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
