This weekend, we had a breather from the heavy rains that have been affecting many regions of the country. The occasional warmer weather helps agriculture by promoting seed germination in areas that have been planted and allowing planting in areas that have not been planted due to excessively wet weather conditions.
We certainly see that some regions in the North West, Free State, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Eastern Cape are experiencing excessive rainfall, which may slow fieldwork. Still, there are no concerns as we still have plenty of time.
Realistically, while not a preference, some regions could still plant through to January. The typical optimal planting period for maize and soybeans is between mid-October and mid-November in the eastern regions of the country. For the western areas, it is between mid-November and December.
Still, we have had many seasons when plantings were more than a month behind this typical window and yet still received excellent harvests. For example, most recently, the 2024-25 production season was roughly a month and a half behind schedule.
Yet, we managed to harvest a record soybean crop of 2.771 million tonnes (up 50% from the previous season) and a second-largest maize crop on record, about 16.44 million tonnes (up 28% from the prior season). We saw an excellent harvest also in other crops.
This ample harvest provides us with confidence that, even if the current 2025-26 production season for summer grain and oilseeds experiences some delays due to wet weather, the country will likely be able to take advantage of frequent warm-weather windows to accelerate plantings.
What we can do at the moment is monitor the weather conditions; nothing to worry about. We have known we would experience a rainy period, as we are in the La Niña weather phenomenon, which typically brings above-normal rainfall across South Africa and the region.
The 2024-25 season of excellent harvest was also a La Niña weather period. Favourable rains supported the agricultural recovery. The gains were across the sector, and not limited to grain and oilseeds. We saw excellent fruit and vegetable harvests, wine production, and grazing veld, all of which benefit livestock.
As I write this letter this afternoon, looking out my office window here in Pretoria, I can see that the clouds are gathering and will likely bring a return of the rains. Hopefully, some farmers managed to take advantage of the warm weather window we saw this weekend to accelerate fieldwork.
We also hope that during the week there will be more windows of warmer weather, particularly in the excessively wet regions of North West, Free State, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, which need the warm weather for seed germination and field work.
South African farmers are optimistic; they plan to plant about 4.5 million hectares of summer grain and oilseeds in the 2025-26 season, up by 1% from the previous season.
We have also seen this optimism backed by actual activity, as farmers have increased their tractor purchases. For example, we now have data on tractor sales in South Africa for the 11 months of 2025. Cumulative tractor sales are 7,176 units, up 19% year-on-year. Sales have been generally robust throughout the year.
Amongst other things, the increase in agricultural machinery sales also reflects the financial gains from the better 2024-25 agricultural season, particularly in field crops, horticulture, and wine grape harvests, which were mainly supported by favourable weather conditions.
In addition to the improved agricultural production conditions for the 2024-25 season and the promising prospects for the new 2025-26 season, interest rates have eased somewhat from last year’s levels, and the affordable cost of capital supports sales.
Overall, what we are now focusing on most in the South African agricultural sector is weather developments and their impact on farm fieldwork.
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