On September 30, we received the eighth production estimate for South Africa’s 2024-25 season. There are two more estimates to follow for the season, but they are unlikely to change the current picture of abundance.
The Crop Estimates Committee lifted South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimate by 2% from the August 2025 estimate to an expected 19.94 million tonnes (a 28% year-on-year increase).
This estimate comprises maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts (peanuts), sorghum, and dry beans. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings. The base effects also help, as we struggled with a drought last year that weighed on the harvest.
This ample crop will likely continue to put downward pressure on prices, which bodes well for a moderating path of consumer food price inflation.
If I were to highlight one crop to underscore my point about food inflation, it would be maize. South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is now forecast at 16.12 million tonnes, which is 26% higher than the 2023-24 season’s crop.
Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
In essence, South Africa has an ample supply of summer grains and oilseeds, and we will see the benefits of the harvest in the softening of commodity prices, which bodes well for consumer food price inflation.
In a few weeks, the focus will shift to the 2025-26 season, which also promises to be favourable, with prospects of La Niña rains.
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