This rainy weather, while an inconvenience at times in social activities, continues to help us in agriculture. The grazing veld is improving nicely across the country. Those in fruit and vegetable farming also don’t have to irrigate as much as on generally warmer days.
In the grains, oilseeds and sugarcane farming, the rain also helps. Remember, the field crops are primarily rainfed. For example, only about 20% of maize, 15% of soybean, and 34% of sugarcane are produced under irrigation, leaving much of the crop dependent on natural rains.
Of course, there can be such a thing as too much rain. We already have some regions of South Africa that struggled to plant grain and oilseeds due to excessive rainfall. But the warmer weather between these rains has helped, and farmers were prepared to plant quickly whenever there is a window of sunshine and the fields are not too muddy.
We typically say the optimal planting window for summer grains and oilseeds in South Africa is between mid-October and mid-November in the eastern regions, and mid-November through to mid-December in the western regions. The area for these windows, amongst other things, was also a concern due to potential frost damage later in the season. There was always a need for farmers to plant at the right time to avoid the frost and take advantage of the rains earlier in the season.
But over time, we have seen seasons being far later than these windows. In fact, the 2024-25 season in grains and oilseeds, which brought an excellent harvest of 20.08 million tonnes (up 30% y/y), was delayed by roughly a month and a half from the typical schedule.
Therefore, even if the current rains delay plantings in some areas, there should be no significant concerns. We know from recent history that farmers can still plant quickly and enjoy a better season.
Overall, the current rains across South Africa are a welcome development for agriculture. The better agricultural conditions also mean a better path for food price inflation going into 2026.
So, for the inconvenience the rains cause you this summer holiday, you get a positive: moderate food price inflation in 2026.
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