One aspect I have highlighted frequently in this letter is the prospect of an uneven recovery in South Africa’s farming fortunes in 2025.
On the positive side, ample grain, oilseed, sugarcane, fruit, wine, and vegetable production support annual recovery.
Meanwhile, on the negative side, foot-and-mouth disease continues to add pressure to the sector. The livestock and poultry account for nearly half of the farming sector’s fortunes, and therefore, when they experience challenges, the entire sector feels the impact.
It is this nuance that has led to yet another mild growth of South Africa’s agriculture in the third quarter of 2025. South Africa’s agricultural gross value added expanded by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the third quarter, from a 2.5% q-o-q expansion in the second quarter.
While the subdued performance remains encouraging, it does also dwarf the excellent performance in the various crops.
For example, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds production is at 20.2 million tonnes, up by 30% from the previous year. This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans.
In the case of maize, we have the second-largest harvest on record, and in soybeans, the largest on record due to favourable La Niña-induced rains. The various fruits and vegetables also achieved excellent harvests, as reflected in healthy export volumes.
Still, the primary challenge for cattle is the foot-and-mouth disease. South Africa will start vaccinating its roughly 12 million cattle. The vaccination will take a while, and the logistics of carrying it out and sourcing the vaccine remain the primary focus. That said, a plan is in place to address the challenge.
Overall, this third-quarter growth underscores the view that agriculture will generally recover in 2025, albeit likely a mixed recovery from a subsector perspective. Notably, the sector is poised for better performance in 2026, as La Niña rains are expected to persist, supporting production.
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