I have noticed in the news that United States Senator John Kennedy has introduced a new bill to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for two years, which would explicitly exclude South Africa. This matters for South Africa’s agriculture, as we all continue to seek better relations with the U.S.
The U.S. remains an important market for our agricultural exports, accounting for approximately 4% of South Africa’s total agricultural exports, valued at U.S.$13.7 billion in 2024.
The exports were also strong in the first two quarters of this year. Even after the Liberation Day Tariffs were announced, some exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause on the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual during the second quarter of the year. In fact, in the second quarter of 2025, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. increased by 26% to US$161 million.
It was only in the third quarter that we saw some cooling in exports. Notably, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same period a year ago, at US$144 million.
The composition of the products hasn’t changed much; it is mainly citrus, wine, fruit juices, and nuts, amongst other typical agricultural exports to the U.S.
South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. accounted for a 3% share of overall farm product exports in the third quarter of 2025 (slightly down from the 4% annual figure in 2014, as exports in other areas increased more).
The 3% share of the U.S. in South African agricultural exports is not small, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these exports. These are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices.
Since the start of AGOA, South Africa’s share of agricultural exports to the U.S. has remained at these levels. From now on, a great deal hinges on whether South Africa succeeds in securing favourable trade terms with the U.S.
It is also worth highlighting that the U.S. has decided to modify its reciprocal tariffs and exempt some food products, thus easing agricultural trade friction, which is costly to both exporting countries and U.S. consumers.
The exempted products include coffee and tea, fruit juices, cocoa, and spices, as well as avocados, bananas, coconuts, guavas, limes, oranges, mangoes, plantains, pineapples, various peppers and tomatoes, beef, and additional fertilisers.
From a South African perspective, it appears that oranges, macadamia nuts and fruit juices will benefit from the exemption.
The rest of South Africa’s agricultural products currently face a 30% import tariff in the U.S. market.
If the country were in a position where the AGOA, which offers South Africa and other African countries lower-duty access to the U.S., were not renewed, we would face slightly higher tariffs.
South Africa would likely face around 33% tariffs if we also account for the previous Most Favoured Nations (MFN) tariff rates before the Liberation Day Tariffs.
I have added a 3% lower-end average here, but the MFN rates may differ product by product. My point is not to be exact, but to make the case that the directional tariff level will be higher than the current 30%.
These higher tariff levels would make access to the U.S. market more challenging for various agricultural products, as competitors such as Chile and Peru face much lower tariff rates of around 10%, making them more price-competitive with South Africa.
These are still early days, and we are all watching developments in the U.S. and the proposed new bill by Senator John Kennedy to exclude South Africa from AGOA. At the time of writing, there was no final view of this issue. Suffice it to say that from an agricultural perspective, the U.S. remains a valuable market.
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