I have long stated that 2025 will likely be a period of uneven recovery in the South African agriculture. From the high-frequency data, we are starting to see mixed fortunes. There is a robust recovery in field crops, vegetables and fruits, thanks to good rains, but the livestock industry continues to struggle with animal diseases.
A few weeks ago, Statistics South Africa released South Africa’s GDP for the second quarter, and the agricultural figures, to an extent, mirrored this challenge. The country’s agricultural gross value added expanded by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. This follows the 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year. The expansion was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture subsectors (vegetables and fruits).
As close observers of the sector are aware, quarterly data tend to be somewhat volatile, influenced by harvest times, crop deliveries, and other factors. It is particularly such issues that the second-quarter growth figure was much softer compared to the start of the year.
We experienced a delay in our summer grain harvest, with more momentum occurring at the start of the third quarter than is typically seen in the second quarter. Indeed, we have ample summer grain and oilseeds, estimated at 19.55 million tonnes (up 26% year-on-year). However, the season was late by roughly a month and a half due to the excessively prolonged summer rains, among other factors.
We have also continued to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease and a few cases of avian influenza, particularly in the second quarter. It was at the end of the second quarter that the foot-and-mouth disease vaccines arrived in South Africa for the start of the vaccination campaign.
However, not all crops were late. The citrus harvest season started in the second quarter, and we have an ample harvest. Farmers moved quickly to take advantage of the tariff pause window in the U.S., which allows for faster harvesting and contributes to the general upside in second-quarter performance. However, it is much softer than at the start of the year.
Also worth noting is that the sector’s sentiment remains optimistic, although it has softened in recent years. For example, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell for a second consecutive quarter by 2 points to 63 in the third quarter of 2025. Despite the slight decline, the current level of the ACI implies that South African agribusinesses remain optimistic about business conditions in the country.
With all these factors considered, the critical point is that we remain convinced that 2025 will likely be a recovery period for South Africa’s agriculture. However, as we have communicated on various occasions, the recovery will be uneven.
The livestock industry continues to struggle with foot-and-mouth disease. Meanwhile, on the upside, the field crops, mainly grains, oilseeds, and sugarcane, are all expected to show a fantastic recovery from last season. We also have an excellent harvest of fruits and vegetables.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
