It would be helpful if the Zimbabwean government could reverse its current ban on maize imports. We understand that it is in place to protect domestic farmers, to some extent, during the months following harvest. But there is growing evidence that the supply is constrained. Some milling firms already face challenges because of the maize shortage.
As we argued a few days ago, Zimbabwe likely doesn’t have sufficient maize supplies for their annual needs. We believe, based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), that Zimbabwe’s maize production is around 1.3 million tonnes. Given the annual consumption of 2.0 million tonnes, they naturally need about 700,000 tonnes to fulfil their needs.
However, we had anticipated that the needs would be more severe by the end of the year and into the first quarter of 2026. We thought the current harvest would carry them for now, albeit with artificially higher prices in the context of a ban on imports of affordable maize from the world market. But it appears that the supplies are constrained already.
Under this context, while it is understandable that the Zimbabwean government wants to protect farmers, it would be beneficial for them to consider lifting the ban now and supporting the households.
We discussed the details of the issue in our AgriView episode last week, which you can watch here.
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