We see a constructive picture of South Africa’s food price inflation, easing at 5.2% in August 2025, from 5.5% in the previous months (the details are on this Stats SA chart). South Africa has an abundant harvest of grains, fruits, and various vegetables, and the benefits of this are starting to show in prices. It is these products that were the major drivers of the moderation in price inflation.
A key product that many are watching is meat, particularly beef (and red meat products), which has remained elevated, although slaughtering has resumed in major feedlots across the country. The issue is that South Africa is experiencing a foot and mouth disease outbreak.
Initially, the panic buying, not necessarily a shortage of product, was the main driver of meat prices. This is when the country’s largest feedlot announced the cases in its facility. This led to concerns about red meat supplies and some panic buying, thus pushing up prices. The slaughtering has now resumed in the major feedlots, although foot and mouth remains a profound challenge in the country.
We must also remember that when there are outbreaks of disease, South Africa is temporarily restricted from various export markets, which, over time, increases the supply of red meat into the local market.
This all sounds encouraging for a consumer, but the red meat producers in South Africa are under enormous financial pressure. This has been a challenging year.
From a consumer perspective, we anticipate the red meat picture (prices) will ease in the coming months. We are already seeing better prices at the farm level. This, together with better grain prices, all point to a potentially moderating food price inflation for the coming months.
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