It is very early to tell what the 2025-26 summer crop season may look like. The farmers will start tilling the land next month, mainly for summer grains and oilseeds.
Remember, we produce all of South Africa’s vegetables and fruits under irrigation. Therefore, when we talk of the rainy season, we typically have in mind grains, oilseeds, and other field crops, such as sugarcane. We also think of grazing veld for livestock. And yes, the rainy season matters for dam levels.
Therefore, when the 2025-26 summer crop season begins next month, in October, we will also intensify our focus on the weather outlook, as it may be a crucial factor to consider when assessing the production outlook.
It is in this regard that I was encouraged to read the South African Weather Service’s (SAWS) Seasonal Climate Watch report, released on 1 September 2025. The SAWS stated that:
“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is firmly in a neutral state; however, predictions indicate that we may be moving towards a weak La Niña event during the coming summer season.”
Such an optimistic outlook would signal prospects of above normal rainfall, which is favourable for agriculture.
Admittedly, the SAWS were quick to add that:
“It is still a bit too early to make any reliable conclusions on ENSO’s effect during early summer; more reliable interpretations can only be made in the next couple of months as the prediction systems become more reliable.”
This is a fair point. But equally comforting. Remember, we are emerging from a La Niña, which helped ensure a robust maize harvest of 15.80 million tonnes, a 23% increase year-on-year, primarily due to expected annual yield improvements.
During this period, we often fear that the La Niña season may be followed by its opposite, an El Niño, which typically brings below-normal rainfall.
Therefore, as long as there is no mention of a strong El Niño possibility, we look forward to the 2025-26 summer season with optimism for South Africa’s agriculture.
If you enjoyed this post, please consider subscribing to my newsletter here for free. You can also follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo)
