In about three weeks, on September 9, Statistics South Africa will release the GDP data for the second quarter of 2025. One of the sectors that some are likely observing closely, because of its significant influence on our fortunes in recent years, is agriculture.
In the first quarter of the year, the sector’s performance was pleasing; the agricultural gross value added expanded by 15,8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted). This expansion was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture subsectors.
But as the close observers of the sector know, the quarterly data tend to be somewhat volatile, influenced by times of harvest and crop deliveries, amongst other factors. It is particularly such issues that I remain slightly concerned that the second quarter performance may not be as robust as the start of the year.
We had a delay in our summer grain harvest, with more momentum happening at the start of the third quarter than usually in the second quarter of the year. Indeed, we have ample summer grain and oilseeds, estimated at 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year). But the season was late by roughly a month and a half because of the excessively prolonged summer rains, amongst other factors.
We have also continued to struggle with the foot and mouth disease and a few avian influenza cases, particularly in the second quarter. It was at the end of the second quarter that the foot and mouth disease vaccines arrived in South Africa for the start of the vaccination campaign.
It is particularly these factors that we must reflect on, seriously, as we formulate or assess the narrative behind the agricultural performance in the second quarter of 2025’s data, which will be released on September 9.
But of course, not all crops were late. The citrus harvest season started in the second quarter, and we have an ample harvest. Farmers moved quickly to take advantage of the tariff pause window in the U.S., which allows for faster harvesting and adds to the upside in our thinking about the second quarter performance.
With all these factors considered, the critical point is that we remain convinced that 2025 will likely be a recovery period for South Africa’s agriculture. But, as we have communicated on various occasions, it will be an uneven recovery.
The livestock industry continues to struggle with foot and mouth disease, and a few cases of avian influenza in poultry. Meanwhile, on the upside, the field crops, mainly grains, oilseeds and sugarcane, all expect a fantastic recovery from last season. We also have an excellent harvest of fruits and vegetables.
But in terms of quarterly growth, the agricultural sector may show a slight slowdown in the second quarter, following a 15,8% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the first quarter of 2025. I am not talking about contraction, but modest growth. This is because of the late harvest and grain deliveries to silos.
Still, this won’t change our view that on an annual basis, 2025 is a recovery period for South Africa’s agriculture.
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