by Wandile Sihlobo | Jun 11, 2020 | Agricultural Production
This essay first appeared on Business Day, June 9, 2020
Some countries in the Southern and East Africa regions will again need large imports of maize in the 2020/2021 marketing year, which ends in April 2021. However, their saviours won’t be your typical major global producers such as Ukraine, the US or Brazil. Rather it is most likely to be SA and Zambia waiting in the wings.
In Southern Africa, the recent data released by Zimbabwe’s department of lands & agriculture placed its 2019/2020 maize harvest at 907,628 tonnes, up 17% from the previous season. Nevertheless, this is below Zimbabwe’s 10-year average maize production of 1.1-million tonnes and annual domestic consumption needs of between 1.9-million and 2-million tonnes. The 2019/2020 production season corresponds with the 2020/2021 marketing year, which means Zimbabwe will still need to import about 1-million tonnes of maize to fulfil domestic needs in the 2020/2021 marketing year.
Meanwhile, in East Africa, the International Grains Council forecasts Kenya’s 2019/2020 maize harvest at 3.4-million tonnes. This is roughly unchanged from the previous season, though there have been good rains over the past few weeks in the grain-producing regions of the country. With Kenya’s annual maize consumption at about 4.7-million tonnes, the aforementioned production estimate means the country could require imports of about 1.3-million tonnes in the 2020/2021 marketing year.
Unlike the other seasons, where African countries would look outside the continent for maize supplies in seasons of deficiency, SA and Zambia could emerge as key maize suppliers. Both countries are expecting their second-largest maize harvests on record for the 2019/2020 production season. In the case of SA, the expected harvest is 15.6-million tonnes, against domestic consumption of about 11-million tonnes. In the case of Zambia, the 2019/2020 maize harvest is estimated at 3.4-million tonnes against domestic maize consumption of 2.2-million tonnes.
This means SA could have at least 2.7-million tonnes of maize for export markets in the 2020/2021 season, which is 89% up year on year. Meanwhile, Zambia could have 1-million tonnes of maize exports, up from 100,000 tonnes the previous year. This would be the third year on record that Zambia would be able to export as much as 1-million tonnes of maize.
Other key maize producing and consuming countries in the Southern and East Africa regions, such as Malawi and Tanzania, will most likely have balanced supplies for their domestic markets and therefore limited room for exports. Hence our focus is on Kenya and Zimbabwe. Also, worth noting is that SA and Zambia are among the most prominent suppliers of maize to Zimbabwe and Kenya and featured among the top five maize suppliers to both countries in 2019, according to data from Trade Map.
Biosecurity policy is always an important consideration when it comes to African markets. To this end, SA has in the past experienced phytosanitary barriers because of its use of genetically modified maize seeds, which account for about 80% of its output. But this time around things will be different. Zimbabwe lifted its ban on genetically modified maize imports from January 31 as the country tried to improve local supplies after a poor harvest in the 2018/2019 season.
With the harvest of the 2019/2020 season also likely to be relatively low, this policy decision will help ease maize imports into Zimbabwe in the coming months. In the case of Kenya, however, there is still a ban on the importation of genetically modified maize. This might limit SA’s participation in Kenya, while Zambia, which produces non-genetically modified maize, might become a prominent player in the Kenyan market. SA’s importance is likely to be concentrated in the Zimbabwean market, but the bottom line is that SA and Zambia will be key sources of maize imports for the southern and East Africa regions within the 2020/2021 season.
Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za
by Wandile Sihlobo | Feb 25, 2020 | Agricultural Production
The authorities in Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda are struggling to control the spreading desert locust infestation. Recent reports from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) suggest that the situation there remains “extremely alarming”. Over the weekend, the Democratic Republic of Congo was the latest to report an infestation of the desert locust, which seem to have crossed over from Uganda with heavy winds.
This is a threat to food security as these locusts are damaging field crops and grazing fields. The FAO estimates that the locusts have spread over nearly half a million hectares across the aforementioned countries. What’s more, about 11.9 million people, which heavily rely on agriculture, are already experiencing acute food insecurity in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia. The locusts will exacerbate this already bad situation.
To zoom into Kenya, the country already has a fragile food system. Kenya experienced drought in 2019 which saw its staple maize harvest falling 15% y/y to 3.4 million tonnes, which is well below the annual maize consumption of 4.7 million tonnes. This saw the country needing maize imports of 1.3 million tonnes in a marketing year that ends in April 2020 in order to meet its annual maize requirements.
I had hoped that 2020 could be a recovery year and Kenya’s maize import needs could be reduced. The spreading desert locust, however, threatens to keep the country a basket case; along with Ethiopia, Somalia and Uganda which currently have millions of people in acute food insecurity.
Overall, the spread of these locusts is evidence that the local authorities are struggling to control them. This then calls for international interventions – a view the FAO has also expressed here. This is indeed a locust crisis.
Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za
by Wandile Sihlobo | Jan 27, 2020 | Africa Focus
If you read the international news on Africa this past weekend, you probably noticed that Time magazine (here), The Guardian (here), New York Post (here), The Japan Times (here), and the Financial Times (here) ran a similar story about the worst swarms of locusts currently spreading in Kenya.
The estimates suggest that 70 000 hectares of land in Kenya has thus far been invested by these locusts, and thus threatening the agriculture sector. The Kenyan authorities seem to be struggling to control the spread of these locusts, which means it could spread to a number of regions in the coming weeks.
The Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has also warned about the potential threat these locusts pose to Kenya’s food system (see here). The FAO has called on the international donor community to assist, acknowledging that the local authorities are not moving at speed required and also not endowed with resources needed to curtail this impending crisis.
I use the word “crisis” intentionally. Kenya’s food system is already fragile. The country experienced drought in 2019 which saw its maize harvest falling 15% y/y to 3.4 million tonnes. Kenya utilizes about 4.7 million tonnes of maize a year, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture. Therefore, the decline in domestic maize production saw the country needing maize imports of 1.3 million tonnes in a marketing year that ends in April 2020 in order to meet its annual needs. I don’t know how much they have managed to import thus far, as the 2019/20 marketing year will only end in three months’ time from now.
I was hopeful that 2020 could be a recovery year and Kenya’s maize import needs could be reduced. The spreading desert locust swarms locusts, however, threaten to bring the country back to food shortage challenges. Also, worth noting is that Kenya is not alone in this challenge. Ethiopia and Somalia are also at risk. This is a bad time for East Africa’s agriculture.
The effective way to control the spread of these locusts will be aerial spraying of pesticides. But that needs money, about US$70 million, according to the FAO estimates. I imagine the small-scale Kenyan farmers might not be able to cover such costs. Hence, the government and international donors will have to assist the affected communities.
Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za
