by Wandile Sihlobo | Oct 7, 2019 | Agricultural Production
We continue to observe developments in the winter crop growing areas of the Western Cape. There hasn’t been any notable rainfall thus far to improve crop growing conditions. The current weather forecasts show that the next two weeks could present more of the same – dryness.
This means that regions such as Overberg, which are already experiencing crop damage might not find a reprieve any time soon. Moreover, regions such as Swartland where the winter crops were still in relatively good shape could also experience losses within the next two weeks if dryness persists.
The Western Cape is a major producer of winter crops, accounting for 61% of area plantings in winter wheat and nearly all canola, which means that prolonged dryness and heat there could have an impact on the national crop size.
Other major winter crop-producing provinces such as the Northern Cape, Free State and Limpopo, amongst others, are mainly under irrigation and can, therefore, withstand harsh conditions as dams are at levels over 50% on average as of 30 September 2019.
Farmers’ reports out of the Free State suggest that the wheat crop in the province generally appear very good. The same is true for the Northern Cape.
South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) currently forecasts the 2019/20 wheat, barley and canola production at 1.81 million tonnes, 389 260 tonnes and 88 800 tonnes, which is 3%, 8% and 15% down from the previous season.
Looking ahead, we see a risk that the CEC might revise down further its winter crop production estimates when the next update comes out on 24 October 2019 given that weather conditions are expected to remain harsh over the next two weeks.
Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za
by Wandile Sihlobo | Sep 26, 2019 | Agricultural Production
The dry and warm weather conditions experienced in the Western Cape since the end of August 2019 have taken a tall on winter crops and the impact is evident at a national level given the significance of the province.
Figures released earlier in the afternoon containing the latest projections from South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) show that the country’s 2019/20 wheat, barley and canola production forecasts were lowered by 6%, 3% and 14% from last month to 1.81 million tonnes, 389 260 tonnes and 88 800 tonnes, respectively. Aside from the Western Cape, most other winter crop-producing provinces harvest expectations are somewhat stable compared to levels seen in August.
In the case of wheat and barley, the current harvest expectations are still well above the five-year average levels, while canola is down notably in part because of a reduction in area planted. The weather conditions have not improved in the province and there is now a greater risk of further crop damage in areas around the Swartland region where wheat is currently pollination – a growth stage that requires moisture. Other major winter crop-producing provinces such as Northern Cape, Free State and Limpopo, amongst others, are mainly under irrigation and can, therefore, withstand harsh conditions as dams are at levels over 50% on average as of 23 September 2019.
Be that as it may, the Western Cape is major producer, accounting for 61% of area plantings in winter wheat and nearly all canola, which means that the persistence of unfavourable weather conditions there could have a national impact as it is currently the case.
We — the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz) — see a risk that the CEC might revise down further its winter crop production estimates when the next update comes out on 24 October 2019 given that weather conditions are still harsh in the province. The weather forecast between 26 September and 12 October show prospects of light showers in the coastal areas of the province, which might not make a meaningful improvement on soil moisture.
In commodities such as wheat, the yield losses might not be compensated by an increase in prices for farmers. South Africa is a net importer of wheat – importing, on average, about 1.6-million tonnes per annum – and prices generally track the import parity price level. Therefore, while lower output levels would be negative for farmers, the effects on domestic consumer food price inflation may be relatively contained.
Written for and first published by Agbiz on 26 September 2019
Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za
