Rail and road network, water and electricity supply and the efficient functioning of municipalities need to be addressed to ensure South African agriculture’s sustainability.
The session focused on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the South African economy. There were excellent speakers, Professors Nicola Viegi and Heinrich Bohlmann, from the University of Pretoria. They provided valuable inputs on energy and macroeconomy dynamics. My input was mainly on agriculture and food supply dynamics. I also commented on the effects of the KZN devastating rains on the sector.
In its third estimates for the 2021/22 season, the CEC lifted its maize and sunflower seed harvest estimates by 0,3% and 0,4%, respectively, from March figures to 14,72 million tonnes (down 10% y/y) and 963 000 tonnes (up 42% y/y). Meanwhile, the soybean harvest estimate was unchanged at 1,89 million tonnes (down 1% y/y).
Focus and spending on the network industries and municipalities’ performance will benefit not only the agricultural sector after recent floods.
Indonesia has recently banned palm oil exports to protect domestic consumers from rising prices. Such a policy approach by a country that accounted for an average of 54% of global palm oil exports in value terms over the past five years will have profound price implications for the global vegetable oils market.
Maize production in some of the sub-Saharan African countries that dominated maize supplies during the 2021/22 marketing year is expected to be lower this coming season. This will bring about some changes in the sub continent’s maize trade in the 2022/23 marketing year, in particular creating complications for Kenya.