Global food prices increased slightly in July, but the outlook remains promising
The recent USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates presented a comforting picture of global food price direction and the risks we outlined in India, Russia and weather aspects in South America will need consistent monitoring. All else being equal, the world is far better than last season regarding food supplies.
South Africa has a favourable summer and winter crop season
With everything happening in global agriculture, one positive thing for South Africa is that the production conditions have been quite favourable, and we have decent grain supplies for domestic consumption and exports.
Some observations as we approach South Africa’s 2023/24 summer crop season
The weather outlook is clearly a downside risk to production for the upcoming summer crop season, although not severe for the reasons we have outlined above. These include the better soil moisture following a rare consecutive four years of heavy rains.
Additional thoughts on El Niño impact on SA agriculture in 2023/24 season
The forecasts of an El Niño occurrence in the 2023/24 summer season do not necessarily equate to a bad agricultural season. The upcoming season of possible below-normal rainfall, i.e., El Niño, follows a rare consecutive four years of heavy rains that have improved soil moisture and natural grazing veld.
Recent rains will ensure a good wheat crop in South Africa
The recent rains across South Africa have been favourable for the 2023/24 season’s winter wheat. The wheat crop is mostly in good condition in the Western Cape, a province that accounts for more than two-thirds of plantings.
There are ample grain supplies in the global market
The 2023/24 global wheat production is forecast at 797 million tonnes, up 1% from the previous season. The larger harvest is anticipated in the EU region, the US, Canada, China, India, and Turkey. As a result of the expected large harvest, the 2023/24 season’s global maize stocks could increase by 1% year-on-year to 270 million tonnes.