Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and the author of two books, “A Country of Two Agricultures: The Disparities, The Challenges, The Solutions” and “Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity and Agriculture“.
He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
His weekly podcast, “Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo“, is available on all podcast platforms.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.
The weather outlook bodes well for South Africa’s agriculture
The weather prospects continue to paint an encouraging picture of the 2023/24 summer crop season and the farmers will probably respond by expanding their planting areas.
South Africa sits pretty in Sub-Saharan Africa food security stakes
In 2022 SA ranked 59th out of 113 countries in the index and was the most food secure country in Sub-Saharan Africa. This was an improvement from a ranking of 70th in 2021. We ranked the second most food-secure country in Africa after Morocco.
South Africa’s consumer food inflation slightly moderated in September 2023
South Africa’s consumer food inflation slightly slowed to 8,0% in September 2023 from 8,2% in the previous month. The product prices underpinning this deceleration are mainly bread and cereals; oils and fats; sugar, sweets and desserts; and vegetables. Our view of the path forward remains unchanged from what we have consistently communicated over the past few months.
Global Food Price Index roughly unchanged from the previous month in September 2023
The broad global agricultural prices are roughly sideways, which is a positive development that bodes well for domestic food prices. The one aspect that one should keep an eye on for the near term is rice, and wheat prices on the back of lingering Black Sea war and trade disruptions following Russia’s non-renewal of the Black Sea Grain Deal.
SA agricultural machinery sales continued to slow in September 2023
South Africa’s September 2023 tractor sales were down (-8% y/y), with 715 units sold. Surprisingly, the combine harvester sales remained slightly firm, with 18 units sold, up 6% from September 2022. Still, this comes after a notable decline in the previous months, which again speaks to the moderation in machinery sales.
SA has a large summer crop, and the attention is now shifting to the upcoming 2023/23 season
Given that we are at the tail end of the season, the attention is shifting to the 2023/24 upcoming summer crop. The primary focus as we approach this new season will be the weather outlook. The uncertainty regarding the intensity of the El Niño weather event and the possible higher temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall that this could bring is still a concern.
Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and the author of two books, “A Country of Two Agricultures: The Disparities, The Challenges, The Solutions” and “Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity and Agriculture“.
He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
His weekly podcast, “Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo“, is available on all podcast platforms.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.