In July, TEDx Johannesburg invited me to deliver an 11-minute TEDx Talk on South African agricultural progress and what African countries can perhaps learn from our experience.
You can watch the Talk by clicking here.
Please share it on your networks if it resonates well.
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Wandile Sihlobo named PERSON OF THE YEAR by the Animal Feed Manufacturers Association of South Africa:
“for his outstanding and noteworthy contributions to the animal feed industry.”
My comment:
In much of what we do, the drive comes from an underlying belief that the agricultural sector of South Africa remains vital to our economy and should receive all the support to continue to prosper. We also believe that many areas of this country, particularly in my home province of the Eastern Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo, amongst other regions, could still see much progress in agriculture. These are also areas where agriculture could help resolve poverty, low-growth challenges, and unemployment.
We also believe that the agricultural sector is vital in addressing the inequality and dualism challenges in the rural economy. Understandably, when we discuss these matters, the focus tends to be on primary agriculture – farmland. But the sector is much broader.
It ranges from input and seed providers, financiers, machinery suppliers, researchers, and manufacturers, amongst others, positively impacting South Africa’s robust food, fibre and beverages industry. I have attempted, over the past decade and so, to play my small part as a “knowledge worker” in this sector.
I have received immense support from many great South Africans throughout the years. Thus, this great honour given to me by the Animal Feed Manufacturers Association tonight speaks to the work and opportunities many people have given me over the years. I remain hopeful that I will rely on their support for years to come.
I am also grateful to many people outside agriculture and the food, fibre and beverages industry who continue to read my articles and books and support the “knowledge work” we do. I am grateful.
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The point of my previous Business Day letter concerned the need to be watchful of land use needs in specific agricultural-rich areas of South Africa. A watchful eye on these issues is vital for our long-term food security needs. South Africa is indeed a big country — about 122-million hectares. Agriculture also takes a sizeable portion of the country, about 78-million hectares.
But we must appreciate that only 17%-20% of these 78-million hectares is suitable for field crops, irrigation and horticultural production. More than 55% of farmland is ideal only for extensive grazing, and another 20% for intensive pastures and animal production.
Therefore, our farmland’s potential is limited in certain areas. We must be careful of the land use in such areas. Water is indeed also a vital part of this discussion.
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On July 19, Dr Mokgweetsi Masisi, the president of the Republic of Botswana, wrote on X that “Our ban on imported vegetables was a powerful move to boost our local farmers & economy. This initiative empowers Batswana by promoting self-sufficiency & improving livelihoods.” This quote accompanied a short video celebrating Botswana’s vegetable production improvement since the country banned the imports of vegetables from South Africa.
The ban was not a new event. Botswana and Namibia regularly close their borders for South African vegetables. However, the prolonged ban started in December 2021 and has been in place since then. The rationale for it, from both Botswana and Namibia’s side, is that it would incentivize domestic production of vegetables in these countries and lower their dependence on South Africa. Their target products include tomatoes, carrots, potatoes, cabbage, lettuce, garlic, onions, ginger and fresh herbs.
In December 2023, Botswana announced the ban extension for another two years. At the time, many in South Africa, including myself, were unhappy about this decision. The source of frustration arises from the appreciation that these countries are all part of the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU), a bloc encouraging free trade and economic integration.
Still, the SACU agreement has a loophole allowing such restrictions. An article by researchers at South Africa’s Department of Trade and Industry citing the SACU Agreement states that “Article 18 (2) …notes that Member States have the right to impose restrictions on imports or exports for the protection of; health of humans, animals or plants, the environment, treasures of artistic, historic or archeological value, public morals, intellectual property rights, national security and exhaustible natural resources“.
Viewed in this context, one can only guess that Botswana and Namibia would argue they are boosting their domestic production of vegetables for “national security”.
This action has had a financial impact on the South African farmers who have, for many years, produced for the domestic market and the region at large.
The question that remains then is how should we respond to these events? Clearly, from the celebratory video shared by President Masisi on X, the political leadership has determined to continue with this ban.
South Africa’s response will need to be sensitive but firm. Admittedly, South Africa has significantly benefited from the African continent in its agricultural export progress. For example, in the record agricultural exports of US$13,2 billion in 2023, the African continent accounted for roughly 40%. This figure has been the same for the past decade. Importantly, in every dollar of agricultural products South Africa exports to the African continent, 90 cents is within the Southern African region. Thus, an engagement with this region about the export ban must appreciate that South Africa greatly depends on the area as a country.
The response will need not be antagonistic or arrogant but rather understand Botswana and Namibia aspirations, formulate pathways of coexistence, and better communication of policy approaches within the region. Having hostile neighbours will not benefit any of these countries’ citizens. After all, the people primarily want affordable, accessible and safe food.
Therefore, Botswana and Namibia could close the market in specific windows to boost domestic production and clearly communicate with South Africa. The South African producers would then fill specific windows when there are gaps in these markets.
For long-term planning, it would also help if these countries communicate with South Africa the agricultural products they deem of “national security” and want to boost their domestic production over the years. This would help South Africa plan better its agricultural export drive to other regions and progressively reduce its dependence on its neighbours.
Importantly, these bans on imports should also not be perpetual but should have time limits when the producers of Botswana and Namibia have restarted their industries and can compete in open markets with South Africa.
The growth or desire to expand agricultural production in these countries also has a positive spillover for South African agribusiness, which can supply farm implements and inputs to these countries. Botswana and Namibia should remain open and not hostile in this respect.
These Southern African countries should revive the regional spirit and formulate agricultural policies and programmes from that perspective. The hostility among neighbours and offensive communication is not a path to Southern Africa’s agricultural prosperity.
Yes, South Africa has dominance, but the goal should not be to overtake South Africa but to leverage its technologies and increase regional agricultural production. Such an approach is what President Masisi’s government of Botswana and Namibian authorities should follow – regional cooperation and shared prosperity in agriculture.
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South Africa has experienced two months of extremely dry and hot weather — February and March. The impact of harsh weather conditions on agriculture across the country is visible through crop failures. The 2023/24 summer grain and oilseed production is down 21% year-on-year, estimated at 15.8 million tonnes.
We are now at an advanced stage of crop development where there would be minimal to no improvement, even if it rains. Indeed, if one reflects on the past few days, we have received some excellent rainfalls in the eastern regions of South Africa, but this has had minimal benefit on crops. The soil moisture has improved, but this will unlikely improve our summer grain and oilseed production outlook (it is too late). However, the grazing veld for the livestock will be improved somewhat.
The map below illustrates the increased soil moisture levels in the central and eastern regions of South Africa following the recent rains. The improved moisture will help in the winter crop season, which starts at the end of this month in most regions of the country.
Regarding summer grain and oilseed production prospects, South Africa is in a better condition than the rest of the southern African region, where there are massive crop failures and countries have to rely on grain imports.
South Africa has sufficient grain for domestic consumption; if the forecast crop materialises, we hope it does.
Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za
In addition to massive investments by the private sector over the years, one key catalyst for the agricultural progress South Africa enjoys today and food security is the government’s and regulators’ embrace of science. South Africa’s openness to crop protection, improved seed varieties, and better genetics, among other inputs, has enhanced the yields in our agricultural sector.
The scientific embrace is also one of the differentiating factors between the broader African and South African agricultural output. Of course, there is much more related to mechanisation and better farming methods. Still, the government’s embrace of science has been vital to our agricultural progress.
As new genetic improvements in animals and plants and crop protection become available to the market, South Africa must maintain its original openness to science. I undoubtedly get this progressive approach when interacting with the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development leadership.
Simultaneously, the South African government must revitalise its breeding programmes at the Agricultural Research Council and other organisations. We need these while simultaneously being open to what the global stakeholders bring to market. Food security is national security.
Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za
For various reasons, folks in the South African government typically don’t get enough credit. However, in agriculture, there are areas where collaborative efforts between the government and the private sector have led to positive outcomes.
The growth in export markets is one such area. The government helped open various export markets so that our increasing agricultural produce could have a market.
In 2023, South Africa’s agricultural exports reached a record US$13,2 Billion, up 3% from the previous year.
The markets are well diversified. The African continent remained a leading market, accounting for 38% of South Africa’s agricultural exports in 2023 in value terms.
Asia was the second largest agricultural market, accounting for 28% of exports, followed by the EU, the third largest market, accounting for 19%.
The Americas region was the fourth largest, accounting for 6%, and the remaining 9% went to the rest of the world.
Still, we can’t take this for granted. We need to work hard to retain these existing markets in the EU, the African continent, Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas.
Importantly, in an increasingly divided and fragile world, South Africa must tread carefully so that its foreign policy approach does not result in a negative trade policy response from its traditional trading partners.
Moreover, South Africa should expand its market access to key BRICS+ countries, such as China, India, and Saudi Arabia.
Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za
South Africa’s 2023/24 summer crop production season kicks off soon, and the uncertainty over the intensity of the El Niño weather event, and the higher temperatures and lower-than-normal rainfall it could bring, remains a concern.
However, the latest message from the SA Weather Service through its Seasonal Climate Watch of August 28 was encouraging, that “the multimodel rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for most of the country during midspring (September to November) and late spring (October to December)”.
However, the weather service added that “early summer (November to January) … indicates below-normal rainfall over the central parts of the country and above-normal rainfall for the northeast”.
This means some regions of the country, mainly the central to western parts, may not experience the same start to the season as the eastern areas. Still, the broad sentiment is that showers are likely to support crop germination at the beginning of the 2023/24 production season. This is also an encouraging message for horticulture and livestock, as the rains will help production conditions in these subsectors.
The central message from the weather service report is that there are concerns about potential below-normal rainfall, mainly from the start of 2024, while there should be decent rain showers in most regions in 2023. Aside from planting and germination, the other critical point of crop development is pollination, which requires moisture and typically occurs about February if farmers plant crops from mid-October in the eastern regions and mid-November in the country’s western areas.
Due to improved soil moisture from the last rainy seasons, mainly in east and central SA, the effect of the expected El Niño on agricultural conditions is likely to be limited initially. We remain concerned about the far western regions.
There is anecdotal evidence that soil moisture in these regions is not as conducive as in the other parts because of drier weather conditions towards the end of the 2022/23 production season. The weather service report indicates stronger prospects of rainfall in the coming months in the northern and eastern regions, with less emphasis on the far western areas. The production conditions in these regions require constant monitoring.
The northern hemisphere countries experienced excessive heat during their summer season. We are thus concerned that this could be a reality for SA in the coming season too.
There is no clarity on this issue now, but it too will need constant monitoring. The weather service is unclear on it, saying that “minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period”. The possibility of excessively high temperatures in an environment in which moisture is already constrained would not be ideal for crop production.
On balance the outlook for the coming agricultural season remains positive, with above-average harvests expected for key crops. The upcoming season is likely not to be as harsh as the 2015/16 production season, which is still fresh in farmers” memories.
Agricultural input prices are far better than last season, though not back to pre-Covid-19 levels. For example, SA farmers are likely to plant this year in an environment in which fertiliser prices are on average more than 50% lower than a year ago.
Given that fertiliser accounts for about a third of grain farmers’ input costs, such price declines will have a positive effect on their finances. Fungicide, insecticide and herbicide prices are also down as much as a third compared with a year ago.
As commodity prices have also declined from the levels of a year ago, large profits are not necessarily to be made in crop farming. Still, the input cost environment is more forgiving overall, and there is encouraging enthusiasm in regions that are preparing for the start of the season in about three weeks.
Written for and first appeared on Business Day.
Follow me on Twitter (@WandileSihlobo). E-mail: wandile@agbiz.co.za
Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and the author of three books, “The Uncomfortable Truth About South Africa’s Agriculture (2025)”, “A Country of Two Agricultures: The Disparities, The Challenges, The Solutions (2023)” and “Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity and Agriculture (2020)“.
He is a Senior Lecturer Extraordinary at the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.
Sihlobo is also a Visiting Research Fellow at the Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand, and a Research Associate at the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) at Rhodes University.
Sihlobo was appointed as a member of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s Presidential Economic Advisory Council in 2019 (and re-appointed in 2022), having served on the Presidential Expert Advisory Panel on Land Reform and Agriculture from 2018.
He is also a member of the Council of Statistics of South Africa (Stats SA) and a Commissioner at the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC).
Sihlobo is a columnist for Business Day, The Herald and Farmers Weekly magazine.
His weekly podcast, “Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo“, is available on all podcast platforms.
He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Fort Hare and a Master of Science degree in Agricultural Economics from Stellenbosch University.