by Wandile Sihlobo | Nov 30, 2025 | Agricultural Environment and Natural Resource
We have long said that 2025 will be a recovery year for South Africa’s agriculture. This followed a challenging drought last year that weighed on the sector. But this recovery will be uneven. As the field crops and horticulture subsectors thrived this year, the livestock subsector underperformed.
Foot-and-mouth disease has been a significant challenge for the cattle industry, leading to the loss of some export markets. Thus, we welcomed the change in policy to now move towards nationwide vaccination of cattle against foot-and-mouth disease.
The vaccination campaign will be a monumental task. We have a national herd of around 12 million cattle, of which 7.2 million are in a commercial herd.
On December 2, Statistics South Africa will release Gross Domestic Product data for the third quarter of 2025. The data will likely paint an optimistic picture of the agricultural sector’s growth. This will follow another positive print in the second quarter, which showed South Africa’s agricultural gross value added expanding by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted).
This was after the 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year. The expansion was primarily due to the improved performance of certain field crops and the horticulture subsectors.
While the likely positive growth figures for the sector will be uplifting, we must view them in the context of a mixed recovery from the challenges I outlined above.
On field crops, South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseeds production season has been excellent. We have a harvest of 20.2 million tonnes. This figure comprises maize, soybean, sunflower seed, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans.
The harvest is up 30% from the 2023-24 production season. There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings.
We also had a reasonably large sugarcane harvest. Notably, the various fruits, vegetables and wine also presented excellent harvests, all of which are key to supporting the growth of South Africa’s agricultural fortunes.
Importantly, as close observers of South Africa’s agricultural sector know, the quarterly growth figures tend to be somewhat volatile, influenced by harvests and crop deliveries, among other factors. Thus, it is helpful to place much attention on the annual figure. Still, these quarterly data are a valuable guide to the sector’s state.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Nov 26, 2025 | Agricultural Environment and Natural Resource
A MAJOR POLICY STEP JUST HAPPENED. South Africa’s Minister of Agriculture, John Steenhuisen, has just announced that South Africa will now vaccinate the entire national cattle herd for Foot and Mouth Disease.
We are at the African Farmers Association of South Africa’s Conference, north of Pretoria, and he just made the announcement here.
What follows are my initial thoughts and reflections on this as I sit here in the conference hall.
The industry is at a crisis level, struggling to control the foot and mouth disease, and this step of vaccinating the national herd is a response to this challenge.
We have a national herd of around 7.2 million cattle. This means vaccinating all these cattle will be a massive undertaking.
Still, this decision is courageous, as it ensures that South Africa protects its cattle herd and can continue its focus on red meat exports.
The challenge now will be the logistics of this work, as well as reengaging the markets we export to about the step South Africa is taking at the moment.
Another vital issue is the sourcing of the necessary vaccines. Currently, South Africa is working to revive the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) and Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP) to produce the essential vaccine. But the path must not end here.
We must ensure that other private-sector stakeholders are part of vaccine production. If we continue on this path, the private labs must be included, and this will be part of our theme of inclusion and working with the private sector.
Notably, the livestock and poultry industries account for half of South Africa’s farming economy. Therefore, this undertaking is at the heart of our farming economy.
I will have more to say on this at a later stage. For now, I view it as a courageous and correct policy step!
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Nov 25, 2025 | Agricultural Environment and Natural Resource
I have noticed in the news that United States Senator John Kennedy has introduced a new bill to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for two years, which would explicitly exclude South Africa. This matters for South Africa’s agriculture, as we all continue to seek better relations with the U.S.
The U.S. remains an important market for our agricultural exports, accounting for approximately 4% of South Africa’s total agricultural exports, valued at U.S.$13.7 billion in 2024.
The exports were also strong in the first two quarters of this year. Even after the Liberation Day Tariffs were announced, some exporters took advantage of the 90-day pause on the higher tariffs and exported more volume than usual during the second quarter of the year. In fact, in the second quarter of 2025, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. increased by 26% to US$161 million.
It was only in the third quarter that we saw some cooling in exports. Notably, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. decreased by 11% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same period a year ago, at US$144 million.
The composition of the products hasn’t changed much; it is mainly citrus, wine, fruit juices, and nuts, amongst other typical agricultural exports to the U.S.
South Africa’s agricultural exports to the U.S. accounted for a 3% share of overall farm product exports in the third quarter of 2025 (slightly down from the 4% annual figure in 2014, as exports in other areas increased more).
The 3% share of the U.S. in South African agricultural exports is not small, as few specific industries are primarily involved in these exports. These are mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices.
Since the start of AGOA, South Africa’s share of agricultural exports to the U.S. has remained at these levels. From now on, a great deal hinges on whether South Africa succeeds in securing favourable trade terms with the U.S.
It is also worth highlighting that the U.S. has decided to modify its reciprocal tariffs and exempt some food products, thus easing agricultural trade friction, which is costly to both exporting countries and U.S. consumers.
The exempted products include coffee and tea, fruit juices, cocoa, and spices, as well as avocados, bananas, coconuts, guavas, limes, oranges, mangoes, plantains, pineapples, various peppers and tomatoes, beef, and additional fertilisers.
From a South African perspective, it appears that oranges, macadamia nuts and fruit juices will benefit from the exemption.
The rest of South Africa’s agricultural products currently face a 30% import tariff in the U.S. market.
If the country were in a position where the AGOA, which offers South Africa and other African countries lower-duty access to the U.S., were not renewed, we would face slightly higher tariffs.
South Africa would likely face around 33% tariffs if we also account for the previous Most Favoured Nations (MFN) tariff rates before the Liberation Day Tariffs.
I have added a 3% lower-end average here, but the MFN rates may differ product by product. My point is not to be exact, but to make the case that the directional tariff level will be higher than the current 30%.
These higher tariff levels would make access to the U.S. market more challenging for various agricultural products, as competitors such as Chile and Peru face much lower tariff rates of around 10%, making them more price-competitive with South Africa.
These are still early days, and we are all watching developments in the U.S. and the proposed new bill by Senator John Kennedy to exclude South Africa from AGOA. At the time of writing, there was no final view of this issue. Suffice it to say that from an agricultural perspective, the U.S. remains a valuable market.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Nov 25, 2025 | Agricultural Environment and Natural Resource
Last night, as I landed from Cape Town, one of the notes in my inbox was a statement from South Africa’s Department of Agriculture outlining the work it is doing to modernise the Act that governs the registration of pesticides, fertilisers and farm feeds. We welcome the work the department is doing, and one can only urge for greater speed in it.
For readers who haven’t been monitoring these issues, the one thing to emphasise is that, in South Africa, we have relied on improved seed cultivars, better genetics, and other inputs to support the growth and expansion of our agricultural sector.
Farmers’ willingness to pay and apply the inputs has been key, along with the government’s progressiveness in registering new inputs, particularly from the early 2000s.
And yes, these are all safe products intended to boost agricultural output and ultimately support our food security.
The piece of legislation that facilitates such registration is Act 36 of 1947 (the Fertilisers, Farm Feeds, Agricultural Remedies and Stock Remedies Act). It has faced some challenges in recent years, necessitating modernisation to enhance efficiency and boost capacity within the unit that administers it.
There remains much work to reach the desired level of efficiency, and we should support the government on these efforts and urge them to move quickly, without fighting the department.
We need enhanced efficiency in registering new inputs to help South Africa’s agriculture remain ahead of the curve and competitive in the world market.
Some inputs also help us with climate adaptation and the addressing of animal diseases.
We also need to continuously work to be more efficient in helping local firms that export various processed agricultural products, and to provide the necessary forms of registration to achieve this ambition quickly.
I have heard of a few challenges exporters of pet treats face, and these must be addressed. We must work to support South African firms, not constrain them. But this message must be clear across all levels of government and not just with the Pretoria team.
The need for efficiency is the emphasis that the leadership of the Department in Pretoria must ensure is carried through to the provincial structures, which are “the face of the department on the ground”.
Still, fighting the department is not a desired approach; we must take a collaborative approach to achieve all these ambitions.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Nov 22, 2025 | Agricultural Environment and Natural Resource
The G20 leaders’ Declaration placed an essential focus on agriculture, recognising the role the sector plays in strengthening global food security.
On this, the G20 Leaders Declaration correctly states that: “We therefore reiterate our commitment to ensuring resilient and sustainable food systems and food security through open and non-discriminatory trade policies consistent with WTO rules.”
The Declaration further adds that: “We note that modernising agriculture and food system’s resilience can be enhanced through land, soil biodiversity, energy and water management, reducing food waste, adaptation and mitigation, support for sustainable technologies, innovations and approaches and investment in smallholder and family farmers while promoting the inclusion and the empowerment of women and youth, strengthening local food production, resilient and improved food value chains…”
This is a bold and welcome statement affirming commitments to the WTO rules in global agriculture. South Africa’s agricultural sector is export-led, and the WTO plays an essential role in ensuring fairness in international trade. The fairness of global trade is also key to ensuring that the world can achieve food security through trade, amongst other interventions.
Moreover, adaptation to climate change will require significant effort and coordination among the government, industry stakeholders, and research institutions. Over the years, South Africa has prioritised technological advancements, such as improved seed cultivars and animal genetics, as well as appropriate and safe applications of agrochemicals and fertilisers.
While others have called for a drastic decrease in the use of agrichemicals, the South African government and organised agriculture have always emphasised appropriate and balanced application of agrochemicals in a safe manner for humans and the environment.
We must be guided by science rather than rhetoric and politics on food matters. We take it that the G20 Leaders Declaration’s focus on sustainable technologies and innovation encompasses such approaches as those of South Africa.
Beyond South African agricultural matters, the G20 placed a necessary spotlight on the challenge of poverty, which remains a reality on the African continent. Unlocking agrarian productivity across the continent will help ensure we overcome this challenge.
The gains from such won’t be easy or achieved overnight, as they require reframing agriculture across the continent, with a necessary focus on commercial production while supporting smallholder farmers.
The interventions also need improvement in land governance, the adoption of technology (improved seed cultivars and genetics), appropriate and safe use of agrochemicals and fertilisers, open trade and minimal government intervention, investment in network infrastructure, and the embrace of organised agriculture, amongst other things.
These are all lessons that can be drawn from South Africa’s agricultural story for the good of the African continent.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Nov 21, 2025 | Agricultural Environment and Natural Resource
The continuous momentum of South Africa in deepening relations with various countries is something we appreciate in agriculture.
We view these engagements as key to investments and export expansion. The efforts of South Africa’s Department of Agriculture in signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam on November 21, 2025, are one such effort.
The MoU focuses on expanded cooperation in crop production, plant protection, animal husbandry, veterinary services, research, development, technology transfer and agricultural trade. These are all key areas for our farming sector.
Admittedly, the MoUs won’t lead to sudden changes or the opening of markets; trade agreements are needed for that. Still, they help maintain close relationships and collaboration, which is key to the establishment of trade agreements at a, hopefully, not distant future.
Collaborating with Vietnam is also a good choice for our needs. You see, Vietnam is a market we keep on our radar in agriculture. The country spends over US$30 billion on agricultural imports annually.
But if one looks at Vietnam’s agricultural products suppliers, South Africa doesn’t feature prominently. South Africa ranked 34th among agricultural suppliers to Vietnam.
In 2024, Vietnam imported US$34 billion worth of agricultural products. South Africa accounted for only 0.3% of these imports (about US$89 million).
The key suppliers of agricultural products to Vietnam were China, Brazil, the United States, Argentina, Cambodia, Australia, India, and Indonesia, collectively accounting for 70% of the country’s agricultural imports.
From a product’s perspective, Vietnam mainly imports maize, nuts, cotton, soybean oilcake, wheat, rice, soybean, beef, and palm oil. South Africa already exports maize, apples and pears, table grapes, nuts, and cotton to Vietnam.
Still, some of these products face some duties, albeit at MFN levels that are reasonably low. For example, South African apples, pears and table grapes face an 8% duty in Vietnam.
If the duties were even lower, South Africa’s penetration into the Vietnamese market would be even more significant than it is now.
In addition to these products, South Africa also exports a range of fruits, wine, red meat, grains, and other products.
Thus, these MoUs that prioritize partnerships, such as the current one in Vietnam, coupled with the recent State Visit, help ensure a strong focus on trade.
We talk about trade a lot because our agricultural sector is export-oriented. And when we consider the long-term growth prospects, as articulated in the Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan, published in May 2022, we know we need to expand into more markets to keep farming businesses financially sound.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Nov 21, 2025 | Agricultural Environment and Natural Resource
The advantage of hosting global events such as the G20 is the possibility for the host country to engage as many visitors as possible. On November 21, 2025, the South African leadership met with the Australian government for a broader conversation and deepening relations.
We do not typically think of Australia when we think of trade in South African agriculture. However, we have decent trade in other sectors, such as the automotive industry, and investments across the economy.
Our agricultural sectors are more similar. Still, there remains much room for collaboration between our countries in a range of areas that could further boost our agricultural sectors. What follows are some broad thoughts about some aspects we could work on collectively with Australia.
One area we can draw on from the Australian experience, which is urgent for us in South Africa, is biosecurity. We are currently struggling with foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa’s livestock industry, and a collaboration with Australia in this area would be valuable.
Moreover, during my visit to Australia in September 2025, one of the key learnings was the effective collaboration between the private sector and the government. Their work on climate-smart agricultural practices, biosecurity (animal and plant health), and cooperation with the private sector on advancing research. These are all the areas that apply to South Africa’s agriculture and would further propel the growth of our farming economy.
How does Australia do it?
The Australian government equips farmers with sound research and pathways to reduce emissions and produce in more environmentally friendly ways. These are also vital to global agricultural trade in today’s environment. Australia exports over two-thirds of its agricultural produce; therefore, compliance with the requirements of its key markets remains vital.
Like Australia, South Africa has an export-oriented agricultural sector, although smaller in value terms (roughly half of our agricultural products are exported). The practices of supporting various climate-smart agricultural research, improving biosecurity, and deepening trade research are areas where South Africa should increase its focus.
Fortunately, some of these matters are not far from our discussions at home. South Africa’s Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan already has some elements of such work.
What remains missing is the focus on implementing the plan, along with the release of the 2.5 million hectares of government-owned land with title deeds, which could be key for inclusive growth. The biosecurity matter remains a running theme, but not just about animal health; it is also key for plant health.
I mentioned the Master Plan because of its structure, which involves government and private sector participation. This is a strength of the Australian approach to agriculture, which we must focus on at home and ensure resources and implementation are in place across the many plans we have crafted.
In terms of research funding in Australia, its model has some similarities to South Africa’s. The farmers pay levies at a specific rate (as a percentage of the value or volume of their production). We see this in some commodities in South Africa.
However, in Australia, the government ensures that every dollar raised by farmers matches the amount they raise. The objective is to continuously boost Australia’s agricultural productivity and strengthen the country’s standing in global food production and trade.
Once the funds are raised, the government and industry share ideas on the research areas and build a common understanding of priorities.
South Africa’s agricultural ambition
In South Africa, we see agriculture as a sector that could drive our rural economic growth and job creation. This co-funding approach, which allows industry to have a significant say in research priorities, would support our objectives.
Indeed, unlike Australia, we remain “A Country of Two Agricultures“; therefore, some consideration must be given to issues of inclusivity. Still, the co-funded research would benefit both of these Two Agricultures.
Beyond funding, there is considerable scope for South Africa and Australia’s agriculture to collaborate, particularly on digitalisation, biosecurity, and climate-smart agricultural practices.
There are advancements in these areas in South Africa that Australian farmers can learn from, and that we can learn from as well.
Therefore, these high-level bilateral meetings between South African and Australian political leaders are essential in opening a pathway for more direct engagements at the departmental and industry levels.
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by Wandile Sihlobo | Nov 18, 2025 | Agricultural Environment and Natural Resource
When published in 2012, the National Development Plan made headlines for, amongst other things, stating the possibility of creating a million jobs in agriculture and its value chain.
Much time has passed since then, and agriculture has created some employment, although not to the level the National Development Plan envisaged.
The challenge is not that the estimate was far off from reality. It was that as a country, we did not follow through on the various prerequisites outlined in Chapter Six of the National Development Plan for unlocking jobs in agriculture.
These included releasing government-owned land to beneficiaries, improving land governance in the former homelands, investing in refurbishing irrigation systems, and broad investment in improving the network infrastructure in the farming towns, among other things.
Since then, the private sector has primarily led the effort to sustain some farming towns, while municipal service delivery has dwindled. The land governance and release of government land with title deeds to new beneficiaries have also not progressed much.
The ongoing primarily private-sector effort, and government work, currently sustains 920k jobs in primary agriculture as of the third quarter of this year, up 2% from the previous quarter. The favourable weather cycles in recent years have also helped.
In the third quarter, we saw quarterly improvements in jobs in field crops, horticulture, forestry, and the production of organic fertiliser.
In addition to the long-term investment, the increase in employment reflects the optimism generated by the abundant harvest in these subsectors, which we have highlighted on numerous occasions.
In the near term, the one subsector that remains under pressure is the livestock industry, mainly due to the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease.
Notably, the jobs of 920k are far above the long-term average of 799k jobs, signalling that, while the sector faces challenges such as animal diseases, wage pressures in some industries, and inept municipal service delivery, among other issues, employment conditions remain encouraging.
It is also fair to note that, if one takes a step back and reflects on 2012, we had just 718k jobs in primary agriculture. Had we moved ahead as a country and implemented all key prerequisites for unlocking agricultural expansion, we likely would have had far more jobs than the 920k as of the third quarter of this year.
From a regional perspective, the 2025 quarterly job data show that the Western Cape, Free State, and Mpumalanga are the only provinces to register quarterly job losses. Meanwhile, other provinces saw mild quarterly job gains.
With that said, the Western Cape remains a major agricultural employer, accounting for 21% of South African agricultural jobs, followed by Limpopo (18%), KwaZulu-Natal (13%), Mpumalanga (12%), Eastern Cape (11%), Free State (8%), North West (8%), Northern Cape (5%), and Gauteng (4%).
Overall, my key takeaway from the third-quarter 2025 jobs data is that favourable production conditions in horticulture and field crops continue to sustain healthy employment levels.
As we expect favourable agricultural conditions to continue in the 2025-26 season, such employment levels are likely to be sustained into 2026. Still, the effects of the foot-and-mouth disease remain visible in the job data, and this could continue to be a challenge through to 2026.
From a long-term perspective, private sector investment has been the key driver sustaining these jobs. There remains greater room for more jobs in the sector if the government could move ahead and release the government-owned land of 2.5 million hectares to beneficiaries with title deeds, paired with blended finance, and partnership with organised agriculture for skills development.
South Africa’s agriculture is not yet at its full capacity and could still create more jobs and grow. There remains potential for increased employment, also within the sector’s value chain.
Partnerships between the government and the private sector will be key to unlocking these possibilities, as initially envisaged in Chapter Six of the National Development Plan back in 2012.
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