It is always comforting to receive data pointing to easing price pressures for consumers. On the food price inflation side, we are seeing some encouraging signs in South Africa, as the rate of food price increases is slowing.
South Africa’s consumer food price inflation slowed for the third consecutive month, easing at 3.9% in October 2025, from 4.4% in the previous months.
The primary drivers of the deceleration were mainly fruit and nuts, vegetables, meat, sugar, confectionery and desserts. The ample supplies, combined with the base effects, are what contribute to the easing of price inflation in these products.
Moreover, while modestly up from the previous reading, the cereal products inflation also remains relatively low on the back of the ample grain harvest in the country.
The challenge of foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa is not over and continues to put pressure on farmers, even as vaccination is still underway.
Typically, during foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, the country is temporarily closed to some export markets, leading to a drop in consumer prices.
But this year we saw the opposite. Initially, panic buying driven by retailers’ announcements, rather than a product shortage, was the main driver of meat prices, combined with buoyant consumer demand. We now see an easing of these upward price pressures.
Regarding the grains, South Africa has an abundant harvest, with the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest estimated at 20.08 million tonnes (up 30% y/y). The various fruits and vegetables also saw ample harvests.
From now on, we remain optimistic that South Africa’s consumer food price inflation will continue to moderate. The benefits of lower grain prices, ample fruit and vegetable supplies, and potentially easing meat prices will continue to be the major drivers of the deceleration.
Still, there is some uncertainty around meat, as foot-and-mouth disease remains a challenge.
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