I have just read an interesting article on News24 that warns about the possibility of the U.S. exploring new markets for the agricultural exports they used to send to China. One product the piece uses as an example is soybeans. It correctly argues that South Africa has a huge soybean market, which is used in animal feed.
But I want to clarify: South Africa no longer relies on imports of soybeans and soybean oilcake. We have managed to lift our domestic soybean production robustly over time.
South Africa’s soybean production has grown significantly since the dawn of democracy, from 67,700 tonnes in the 1993/94 production season to an expected 2,3 million tonnes in 2024/25. The growing demand for soybean oilcake or meal by the animal feed industry stimulated this growth.
This, in turn, has been driven by an increase in the demand for high-protein food, particularly poultry products. South Africa’s per capita consumption of poultry meat has almost doubled over the past 17 years, currently estimated at around 41 kilograms.
To service the growing demand, South African agribusinesses, supported by the government, made investments to increase domestic soybean processing capacity from roughly 860,000 tonnes in 2012 to around 2.2 million tonnes now.
This was also aimed at stimulating domestic soybean production as an import substitution strategy. The farmers responded positively to these demand changes, as evidenced by the robust increase in soybean production over time.
This positive production response was an increase in planted areas and technological improvements, such as seeds, fertilisers, and better farming practices. Regarding plantings, the soybean area increased 21-fold over the past 30 years to 1.2 million hectares in the 2024/25 production season.
Before this success in expanding our soybean production, over 80% of South Africa’s soybean meal or oilcake consumption was imported in 2006/07, but South Africa is now a net exporter. In the 2023/24 season, South Africa’s soybean exports are estimated at 570,000 tonnes.
Therefore, in an environment like this, I doubt that U.S. growers will look into South Africa for soybean exports.
Still, the main point of the News24 article, which is that we must remain vigilant, is critical. Importantly, various commodities associations and the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa will need to look closely at imports now than ever. This is not calling for a protectionist view but vigilance for fairness.
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