February 27 is an important day in South Africa’s agriculture. The Crop Estimates Committee will release its first production estimates and revised area plantings for South Africa’s 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production, which includes maize, sunflower seeds, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans.
In its preliminary area plantings data, the Committee was reasonably optimistic, placing the area plantings for all crops at 4,45 million hectares, up by 0,3% from the previous season.
Ordinarily, these early production estimates would guide the season’s outlook, with monthly revisions until the season is complete. However, two factors may complicate the production forecast this time or lead to notable adjustments in the coming months.
First, some regions planted their crop roughly a month behind schedule because of the drier weather conditions from November to December. For such areas, the yield forecast may be a challenge. The most accurate picture may be in the coming months’ figures.
Second, the recent weeks have brought much welcome rainfall, whose benefit in crop conditions improvement will likely show in the coming weeks and months. Depending on when the Crop Estimates Committee did their assessment, they may not have fully accounted for some of these gains.
Again, this will be a first estimate. Nine more monthly reports will follow, accounting for all crop condition developments in the coming months. So, when the data is out, we should view it from this perspective.
The weather prospects for the coming months remain optimistic. South Africa could receive favourable rainfall through to March, benefiting the late-planted crops that may pollinate mainly next month. Summer crops typically require more moisture during the pollination stages.
On a cautious side, the risk that some have in mind is the likelihood of frost later in the season and what impact this could have on yields. Still, if recent history is anything to go by, we may not have challenging frost later in the season.
Recently, there have been times when South African farmers planted late and still proceeded to have a decent harvest.
On the downside, we suspect a few areas, especially in Limpopo, received more moisture than required in the past few weeks’ rains. It is unclear whether this will be a significant challenge for such areas.
The warm weather conditions provide a breather and perhaps relief for them.
Beyond the production conditions, one aspect to remember is that the late start of the summer crop season implies that producer deliveries may be late. This could keep grain prices slightly wobbly in the next few weeks, although they are broadly on a moderating path from last month.
The primary issue is that the grain stocks from the past season are tight. We will only get a breather when the new crop is delivered to the market.
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