Usually, if one does not deal with a particular commodity in their daily business, they rarely monitor whether it is produced sufficiently locally or imported. Consumers’ main concern is always whether they get their preferred products on the shelves when they go to the store at a fair price and in a safe condition. This has been the reality of wheat products in South Africa.
Hence, some South Africans realising that the country imports roughly half of its annual wheat consumption has sparked a discussion about why the country is not expanding domestic production in all the fallow land in some provinces.
Here is a thing;
South Africa began importing over a million tonnes of wheat from the 2003-04 marketing year. In the years before that, wheat imports averaged 458 518 tonnes, for example, between 2002-03 and 1989-90. The import surge resulted from increased consumption and a decline in area plantings.
From the 1997-98 season, South Africa’s wheat plantings fell below a million hectares, the norm in seasons before this period. This decline is better explained by the profitability challenges that farmers have faced since that period, specifically in the Free State and non-conducive climatic conditions.
The critical thing to recall is that before 1997-98, South Africa’s agricultural markets were regulated, and the various commodities boards played a massive role in setting prices, including wheat. Thus, after deregulation, South African farmers had to compete in the global market. Thus, the Free State production areas came under profitability strain, resulting in farmers switching from wheat to other profitable crops.
Other provinces of South Africa don’t have large areas with conducive climatic conditions for high-quality wheat milling for human consumption. Hence, we speak of a few major wheat-producing provinces, the Western Cape, and mainly those under irrigation in the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and North West.
A significant development over the years is improving productivity in South Africa’s wheat farming. In 1997-98 years before, South Africa’s wheat yields were below 2,0 tonnes per hectare. The yields are 3,8 tonnes per hectare as of the 2024-25 production season.
Because of improved profitability, South African wheat production has remained relatively large. The 2021/22 crop was the largest in 20 years, at about 2.3 million tonnes. In 2024-25, the crop is estimated at 1.94 million tonnes because of lower plantings in the Free State and Northern Cape, among other places.
But this will not be sufficient to meet annual consumption. South Africa will likely import about 1,82 million tonnes of wheat in the 2024-25 marketing year to supplement the domestic supplies. The current import volumes are roughly half South Africa’s annual wheat needs of 3,8 million tonnes.
In a separate post, I will discuss the current wheat production dynamics and import activity. Still, I felt it essential to explain why we are here: importing half of our annual wheat consumption.
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