(Oh well, one should be resting or surfing in Port St Johns, but here we are — there are more data releases on South Africa’s agriculture.)
What’s new? We continue to see a downward revision in South Africa’s winter crop production prospects. For example, in its fifth 2024-25 winter crop production estimates, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee slightly lowered the forecasts by 0,2% month-on-month (m/m) to 2,68 million tonnes.
From an annual basis, the harvest is down by 1,5% from the 2023-24 season. This estimate comprises wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupines.
Wheat
Wheat production is estimated at 1,93 million tonnes, down 03% m/m and 6% year-on-year (y/y). The crop losses are not in the Western Cape, the major wheat producer.
The Western Cape expects a larger harvest than the 2023-24 season. The challenge is the poor harvest in other producing provinces, primarily the Northern Cape, Limpopo, and the Free State.
These provinces have reduced area plantings for wheat this year. The relatively lower wheat prices at the start of the season may be one of the factors behind the decision to slash plantings.
However, the challenge for the Free State and Limpopo is beyond the prices. These provinces experienced severe mid-summer drought, which led to significant summer grain losses.
When the winter wheat season started in May, farmers’ mood was downbeat, and they worried about soil moisture. Others may have wanted to conserve soil moisture for the new summer crop season.
Thus, we saw lower plantings and relatively lower expected yields in some areas. These challenges have contributed to the 6% expected national decline in the 2024-25 South African winter wheat harvest.
In a season like this with a reasonably expected lower harvest, one would assume that the imports would increase, especially as the consumption of wheat and wheat products in South Africa remains strong.
However, the South African Grain and Oilseeds Supply and Demand Estimates Committee estimates suggest that 2024-25 wheat imports may fall 7% to 1,80 million tonnes. This closely aligns with a five-year average of wheat imports to South Africa. The major boost is the higher opening stocks, supplemented by the ample imports in the past season.
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