Well, the price surge is not only in “orange juice”. Coffee prices also continue to increase and hit a record high this week. The underpinning problem is the same for both “orange juice” and “coffee” – and that is bad weather in South America (Brazil), the major orange juice and coffee producer and Vietnam (in the case of coffee).
These problems may last for some time. In 2025-26, Brazil’s coffee harvest may again be poor, leading to another lower global stock. I read that “Volcafe also projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags, wider than the 5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.”
The orange juice may have similar challenges. Brazil, the leading producer, faced drought and pest infestation, and recovery will take some time. The various analysts who look closely at this matter, more than me, are generally bullish that we may see prices at these levels for some time.
If the prices remain at these levels, as we expect, the coming year may again be reasonably good for South African citrus farmers. We need a few good years of better prices (for growers. Sorry, consumers – me included).
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