In November 2024, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee lowered its 2024-24 wheat production estimate mildly from the previous month (down -1% month-on-month). The Crop Estimates Committee now forecasts South Africa’s wheat crop for the 2024-25 season to be 1,94 million tonnes, down 5% from the previous season.
The crop declines are not in the Western Cape, the major wheat producer. The Western Cape expects a larger harvest than the 2023-24 season. The challenge is the poor harvest in other major producing provinces, primarily the Northern Cape, Limpopo, and the Free State. These provinces have reduced area plantings for wheat this year. The relatively lower wheat prices at the start of the season may be one of the factors behind the decision to slash plantings.
However, the challenge for the Free State and Limpopo is beyond the prices. These provinces experienced severe mid-summer drought, which led to significant summer grain losses. When the winter wheat season started in May, farmers’ mood was downbeat, and they worried about soil moisture.
Others may have wanted to conserve soil moisture for the new summer crop season. Thus, we saw lower plantings and relatively lower expected yields in some areas. These challenges have contributed to the 5% expected national decline in the 2024-25 South African winter wheat harvest.
In a season like this with a reasonably expected lower harvest, one would assume that the imports would increase, especially as the consumption of wheat and wheat products in South Africa remains strong.
However, the South African Grain and Oilseeds Supply and Demand Estimates Committee estimates suggest that 2024-25 wheat imports may fall 7% to 1,80 million tonnes. This will be closely aligned with a five-year average of wheat imports to South Africa. The major boost is the higher opening stocks, supplemented by the ample imports in the past season.
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