While some regions of South Africa have already received the early 2024-25 summer rains, others haven’t received much. Farmers are understandably again worried about the prospects for the new season in some areas of the country that are still somewhat dry and with warmer temperatures.
However, I believe, supported by various forecasts from the Columbia Climate School at Columbia University and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, that the prospects of La Niña occurrence remain pretty high this season.
On October 15, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology noted;
“The ENSO Outlook is currently at La Niña Watch, meaning there remain some signs that a La Niña may form later in 2024.”
Meanwhile, the Columbia Climate School at Columbia University sees the probability of La Niña occurrence at over 60% between October 2024 and January 2025. From February, the prospects slow to below 50%, with normal weather conditions dominating throughout the summer season.
An important point to underscore here is that “normal” weather conditions in a summer season imply regular rainfall, not drought or “El Niño”. Therefore, the normalizing weather prospects from February should not be a significant worry.
Meanwhile, the dominance of La Niña weather should ordinarily present above-normal rainfall in South Africa and the entire Southern Africa region.
Admittedly, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has been more cautious than its peers to make a bold call on where we are regarding the weather prospects.
On October 5, in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, the SAWS stated
“The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently still in a Neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. Current predictions indicate the development of a La Niña state during the start of the summer season; however, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions. It is advised to monitor the ENSO system during the start of the summer season, as it may change the rainfall outlook for the summer rainfall regions if and when the La Niña materializes.”
As I write this letter on the morning of October 28, the weather prospects for the next two weeks look favourable across South Africa. There are expectations of rainfall. If it materializes, as I hope, this may be the start of the rainy summer season. Improved rainfall prospects would be ideal for agricultural recovery across South Africa and the broader Southern Africa region.
Follow me on X (@WandileSihlobo).