On Thursday, September 26, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee — the body of researchers in government and independent organizations tasked with forecasting the country’s grains and oilseed production — will release its eighth production forecast for the 2023-24 summer grain production. They will also release their 2nd production estimates for 2024-25 winter grains and oilseeds.
We know the 2023-24 summer grains and oilseed harvest took a major hit from the mid-summer drought. The current production estimate is 15,69 million tonnes, down 22% from the 2022-23 season. There are significant crop declines in maize, soybeans, and sunflower seeds, amongst other grains. And to be clear, the 15,69 million tonnes estimate is for all summer grains and oilseeds – maize, soybeans, sunflower seed, sorghum, groundnuts, and dry beans.
Still, South Africa is fortunate to have been able to meet its local needs and have a surplus for the neighbouring countries in dire need of maize supplies.
Given that we are late in the season, we doubt the data released on Thursday will change much of the picture of sufficient grain supplies that the Crop Estimate Committee painted last month. Still, I must highlight that we continue to see relatively lower deliveries to commercial silos, which at this point, we don’t know if it’s because of relatively high on-farm storage or if there are challenges with the crop that are yet to unfold. This lack of clarity makes watching the data for this week vital.
Beyond this week’s data, we will focus on the 2024-25 summer grain and oilseed production season starting next month. The planting should begin in the eastern regions of South Africa from mid-October. The weather forecasts remain optimistic, with prospects of La Nina rains, which could help bring much-needed rains and support agricultural production for the 2024-25 season. The harvest from this particular season will be critical for the food security conditions in 2025 and 2026.
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