In all of our agricultural abundance in South Africa, rice is one of the crops we are not endowed with. We rely 100% on imports. We consume about a million tonnes of rice annually. We can’t produce rice because of our relatively dry environment; we are generally a semi-arid country.
Thailand is the leading rice supplier to South Africa, accounting, on average, for 74% of South Africa’s rice import volume a year in the past five years. India is the second largest rice supplier to South Africa, boasting an average annual share of 21% over the past five years. Other rice suppliers to South Africa include Pakistan, Vietnam, China, Australia, the US, and Brazil.
Therefore, this reliance on imports means we should constantly monitor global price developments. Indeed, this time around, the rice price prospects look great globally.
The rice prices from various origins have moderated significantly from the higher levels we saw last year. This benefits the importers like South Africa. Moreover, the relatively less depreciated domestic currency will also help ease the costs of imported rice.
The global rice prices have softened, amongst others, because of the positive global production prospects for the 2024-25 season. The International Grains Council forecasts 2024-25 global rice production at 528 million tonnes, up 1% year-on-year.
There are expectations for a good harvest in India, Vietnam, Thailand, the US, Pakistan, China, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, amongst others.
The expansion in area planted and favourable weather conditions are some of the factors behind the optimism about the global rice harvest in the 2024-25 season.
Subsequently, the global rice stocks could also lift by 1% from the 2023-24 season to 176 million tonnes.
All else being equal, one can say that the coming months will likely see much better costs for rice consumers. In the case of Southern Africa, where the white maize supplies are tight because of the recent mid-summer drought, the easing rice prices and ample supplies provide a better addition to the basket of staples. However, at the retail level, rice prices may remain relatively higher than some white maize products.
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