Because of its dominance in winter wheat production, the Western Cape province of South Africa can offer a window into the prospective harvest. Indeed, in my recent drive in the Swartland region of the Western Cape, my fixation was the wheat production conditions. As I drove from the Northern Cape side into the province, I was welcomed by a green, lush, promising sight of the winter wheat crop.
Yes, not all things are rosy in the province. The Western Cape has received excessive rain recently, damaging infrastructure in various regions of the province. In the wheat fields, there are areas where puddles of water are visible from the major roads. Still, the vast sections of the crop look promising.
A few exchanges with some Agribusiness leaders in the area suggest that the southern regions of Swartland may be too wet, and the northern areas should do well. We are yet to have a better view of some wheat regions when we visit the province in the coming months.
Notably, the question of what this means for the national wheat production prospects will also be evident in the coming months. South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee will release the area planted estimate and first production forecast for this season’s wheat crop on August 28. The Crop Estimates Committee may adjust these figures during the monthly reviews depending on how the production conditions evolve.
The hope is for the Western Cape to have some slightly warmer days to drain the excess moisture so that the crop in puddles of water can recover. The wheat crop in various regions is still in the early growing stages, possibly improving even in excessively wet areas if the weather conditions in the coming weeks warm up somewhat.
I am emphasizing the Western Cape because of its dominance in wheat production in South Africa. Over two-thirds of South Africa’s winter wheat crop is in the Western Cape. The province is a winter rainfall region.
Putting the anecdotal views aside and looking at the data tells a worrying story. The Crop Estimates Committee estimated South Africa’s preliminary area plantings for wheat are at 502k hectares, down by 7% from the 2023/24 season.
This is the lowest area planting in seven years. The sharpest declines in area plantings are in the Free State and Limpopo. These two provinces are among the top four major winter wheat-producing provinces in South Africa, including the Western and Northern Cape.
The Western and Northern Cape provinces show a minor decline in area plantings. Other provinces, which are relatively small producers, such as the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, also show a mild decrease in area planting prospects.
The major decline in winter wheat plantings in the Free State and Limpopo is unsurprising. The northern regions of South Africa experienced a harsh mid-summer drought, which led to significant crop losses. The farmers in some of these regions are under financial strain and, thus, understandably reluctant to increase the winter wheat plantings.
Moreover, the wheat prices have moderated this year, down by roughly 4% year-on-year. Therefore, in an environment with reduced soil moisture because of the mid-summer drought, lower wheat prices, and some financial pressures, farmers are likely focused on utilizing more area plantings for the 2024/25 summer crop plantings that start in October 2024.
If weather conditions, particularly in the Western Cape, improve for the rest of the season and achieve a five-year average yield of 3,78 tonnes per hectare in 502k hectares, we could have a winter wheat harvest of 1,89 million tonnes. This would also be down 7% year-on-year and well below the five-year average winter wheat harvest of 2,02 million tonnes.
Overall, it will be a while before we know what the 2024/25 wheat harvest will reach. The figures that the Crop Estimates Committee will release at the end of this month will be initial guidance. The observations from our drive already paint a sightly promising picture for some regions of the Western Cape. The improvement in the weather conditions, slightly drier in a few days and moderate rains, would significantly impact the harvest potential.
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